Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goodnews Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:51AMSunset 11:01PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 11:21 PM AKDT (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goodnews Bay, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 59.32, -161.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak69 pafg 222335
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
335 pm akdt Wed may 22 2019
highlights...

isolated thunderstorms over the eastern interior today with scattered
thunderstorms over the NE interior this afternoon evening. Could
see small hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning in area of
scattered thunderstorms which will be north and east of fairbanks.

Scattered thunderstorms possible again Thu over the NE interior.

Flooding on the koyukuk river at allakaket expected to worsen
through fri, and expect high water downstream at hughes on Thu and
fri, and at huslia on the weekend.

Synopsis
Aloft...

the long wave pattern consists of a trough over the eastern bering
and north central pacific and a ridge over the eastern pacific and
eastern alaska. The trough will deepen and broaden through the
weekend with the ridge building north through the weekend. A
series of short wave troughs will make their way north over
northern alaska in this flow. Expect isolated scattered showers
over the northern alaska in this pattern due to weak instability,
but will see scattered thunderstorms in the eastern interior as
short wave troughs move north and cause greater instability and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

One short wave trough from fairbanks east will move to tanana to
arctic village by 4am thu. Expect isolated thunderstorms along and
north of this trough, with LI of -2 to -4, and capes values of
500j over the area NE of fairbanks, expect scattered thunderstorms
this evening zones 220 and 224.

A second short wave moving north to healy to eagle by 4pm thu,
will move to tanana to old crow by 4am fri. Expect scattered
thunderstorms north of this trough over zones 220 on thu.

Surface...

a 1016 mb high 80 nm north of demarcation point will dissipate
thu. This is causing weak offshore winds in the eastern arctic
that will inhibit fog formation this evening.

A cold front in the western chukchi sea will move to the central
chukchi sea by 4pm thu, to point barrow north by 4pm fri, and to
demarcation point north by 4pm sat. Expect scattered rain and snow
showers with this feature, with freezing rain possible Fri and
sat just following the trough.

A 1013 mb low will develop near barter island by 4am Fri and move
to 200 nm north of barter island as a 1013 mb low by 4pm fri,
then continue moving north. This will pull rain showers into the
eastern north slope on fri.

A weak weather front along the west coast of alaska will weaken
tonight. This is causing weak NW flow along the west coast and fog
along the coast, with dense fog from the bering strait to point
hope.

A weather front over bristol bay will move over the western
interior of alaska Thu and then slowly weaken. This will bring
showers to SW alaska tonight and thu, with just scattered showers
in the western interior.

Downslope winds developing Sat night will continue into sun.

This is expected to cause high winds along the alaska range sat
night and sun.

Discussion
Models initialize well at h500. Similar solutions through 4am
fri. After that time the GFS and ecmf move the h500 low north of
the arctic coast, while the NAM takes that feature due east along
the coast. The GFS and ecmf also build the h500 ridge more
strongly over interior alaska and NW canada than the NAM does,
which likely is why they push the h500 low more to the north.

Favor the GFS and ecmf as the deepening long wave trough over the
bering sea and northern alaska should result in a stronger
building ridge over the eastern pacific as those models show.

Precip in the short term is handled very poorly by the nam, and
moderately well by GFS and ecmf. The band of showers occuring
this morning from delta junction north is not shown at all by the
nam, is partially shown by the gfs, but is overdone in the ecmf.

The ecmf covers all the area of showers, but overdoes the area of
coverage. Prefer is to use the ecmf areal coverage for today, then
blending the ecmf and GFS for areal coverage tonight into the
weekend.

At the surface at 15z, the 1016 mb low 80 nm north of demarcation
point is about 4 mb deeper than any of the models indicated at
that time, and the thermal low just east of delta junction is a
few mb deeper than models indicate. Otherwise models verify well.

Expect the low just north of demarcation point will persist into
today and result in west winds along the eastern arctic coast
today into this evening unlike what models indicate. Otherwise
would follow the GFS surface pattern for winds.

Bottom line, is we will use the GFS for most fields, but use the
ecmf precip field for areal precip coverage today, then blend it
with the GFS precip for areal coverage tonight through sat.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Isolated thunderstorms over the eastern interior today with scattered
thunderstorms over the NE interior this afternoon evening. Could
see small hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning in area of
scattered thunderstorms which will be north and east of fairbanks.

Scattered thunderstorms possible again Thu over the NE interior.

Looks like rh should generally remain above 25% through fri,
except that the area near eagle may see 20% rh thu.

Chinook winds expected along the alaska range Saturday night and
Sunday causing windy and dry conditions near the alaska range sat
night and sun.

Hydrology
Freezing levels now range from 4000 ft along the west coast to
8000 ft along the alcan border and will remain like that through
sat. This will keep snow melt going in mountains, and should see
continued rise of rivers draining the brooks range which are
already high. Expect the minor flooding on the koyukuk river at
allakaket to get worse over the next several days, and water
levels on the koyukuk river downstream at hughes and huslia will
be rising as well. Flooding on the koyukuk river at allakaket
expected to worsen through early sat, and expect high water
downstream at hughes by this weekend, and at huslia on the
weekend into next week.

Rivers draining the alaska range will continue to rise, but since
they are at low levels now, should see no problems there.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Flood warning zone 219 on koyukuk river at allakaket.

Jb may 19


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEH (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrS6
G20
S17
G22
CalmSE8
G21
------------------------------------CalmSE23
G27
1 day ago------W15
G19
----CalmCalmCalmSW15
G19
SW13SW15
G21
CalmSW14
G17
CalmCalmS19Calm--------CalmS17
2 days agoS14
G27
SW10
G22
CalmCalm--SW10
G16
SW13
G20
SW14
G17
W14
G22
CalmCalmCalmW20W19W20
G24
W14
G19
Calm--------------

Tide / Current Tables for Carter Spit, Alaska
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Carter Spit
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:22 AM AKDT     10.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:27 AM AKDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:03 PM AKDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM AKDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
8.19.710.510.39.17.24.92.71.51.52.53.85.26.36.86.45.33.82.10.70.10.62.14.2

Tide / Current Tables for Goodnews Bay entrance, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Goodnews Bay entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM AKDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM AKDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:43 PM AKDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM AKDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
6.87.88.27.86.64.831.61.21.62.53.54.55.15.24.73.72.41.10.20.212.44

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.