Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Goodnews Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:08AMSunset 4:20PM Friday November 16, 2018 11:30 AM AKST (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goodnews Bay, AK
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location: 59.32, -161.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 161344
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
444 am akst Fri nov 16 2018

Discussion
Synopsis... Quiet weather in the central and eastern interior.

Winds increasing on the arctic coast with low stratus ceilings
along the coast, and patchy fog. Snow on the west coast as a low
pressure system in the bering sea continues to spin moisture
north.

Models... No change in what we have been seeing for quite some
time now, the run to run continuity in the solutions has been good
in the short term, and there is very good agreement. Solutions
continue to struggle beyond 48 hours, and there is significant
divergence beyond 96 hours. Surface solutions are no better,
though the divergence does not appear to be as significant.

16 00z solutions initialize well against the 16 06z surface
analysis with only minor discrepancies in strength and location of
the major features. Will use an equal blend for the short term
with a lean to the NAM for winds. Will need to make some local
adjustments to the winds that the models do not account for.

Aloft... At 500 dam... Fast northwest to southeast flow continues
over the arctic, while ridging lies from a 575 dam high off the
oregon coast over yakutat to point barrow then west over wrangel
island this morning. Fast zonal flow continue north of 75n as the
ridge slides east to lie from 574 dam high off the washington
coast over whitehorse yt to deadhorse then west of wrangel island
by Saturday morning. Troughing over the bering sea with a 524 dam
low just south of the gulf of anadyr extends southeast to a 541
dam low over chignik and a 547 dam low over 45n 150w this morning.

The trough will weaken as it pushes east working over the ridge to
lie from 521 dam low near the gulf of anadyr over nome to
anchorage then southeast over the gulf of alaska. A 521 dam low
southwest of the attu this morning will move into the central
bering sea tonight, and absorb the low near the gulf of anadyr,
while a 525 dam low develops south of the aleutians and moves to
200 nm southwest of nikolski by Saturday morning. A shortwave will
develop southwest of mainland alaska and lie from a 522 dam low
over the pribilofs to sand point and southeast by Saturday
morning, moving to lie from the low now just southwest of nunivak
island over bethel to mcgrath to yakutat as it pushes its way over
the ridge. At 850 dam... Temperatures 0c to -10c over most of the
forecast areas this morning with a pocket of temperatures slightly
above 0c over the lower yukon delta. Temperatures will be
relatively steady over most of the forecast area with the
exception of the middle and lower yukon delta where they will
remain just above 0c, and that area of slightly above 0c
temperatures will expand north over the seward peninsula.

Surface... A ridge of high pressure over the northeast half of
mainland alaska with a 1030 mb high over the central beaufort sea,
a 1030 mb high just east of old crow yt, and a 1042 mb high just
northeast of watson lake yt. Broad area of low pressure over the
bering sea is pushing inland over the southwest mainland and north
over the chukchi sea. A 1001 mb low 200 nm west of st matthew
island will merge with a 990 mb low moving east across the
southern bering sea and a trough of low pressure will persist
through the bering strait and chukchi sea. The 990 mb low will
move northeast tonight from the pribilof islands to nunivak
island, then stall near CAPE romanzof through Sunday. A 1020 mb
high will persist over chukotka. Low pressure will continue to
push over the state as the high pressure is pushed east.

Arctic coast and brooks range... Winds snapping around from the
northeast and east at 10 to 25 mph along the coast. Inland winds
will also swing around but at 5 to 15 mph. Stratus along the
southern flank of the high pressure is moving over the coastal
areas and will bring some flurries or light snow to the coast and
plains today. The brooks range will start out partly cloudy with
increasing high clouds by afternoon. Blowing snow and fog reducing
visibility in the coastal areas today, with visibility reduced to
less than one mile at times. Temperatures cooling.

West coast and western interior... Increasing clouds if it has not
already clouded up with snow or snow showers for most areas. There
is a chance of freezing rain in the lower yukon delta today and
tonight. 2 to 3 inches of new snow can be expected by Saturday
morning in most areas with some heavier amounts in the nulato
hills, and bendeleben mountains on the seward peninsula. Winds
generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph.

Central and eastern interior... Increasing clouds today.

Temperatures will be warming the next couple days with a chinook
developing Sunday with winds gusting near 50 mph south of delta
junction. Chance of freezing rain south and east of delta junction
Sunday night into Monday. The front will reform to the north of
fairbanks with snow north to the yukon river as the front stalls
over the area. Snowfall of 2 to 4 inches expected with the
heaviest snowfall in the white and ray mountains.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7... Broad area of low pressure
will be over the state with no significant precipitation being
indicated by the current model solutions.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz200-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-
pkz230.

Small craft advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-
pkz230.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Sdb nov 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6
G20
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CalmSE8
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------------------------------------CalmSE23
G27
1 day ago------W15
G19
----CalmCalmCalmSW15
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CalmCalmS19Calm--------CalmS17
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CalmCalm--SW10
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Calm--------------

Tide / Current Tables for Carter Spit, Alaska
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Carter Spit
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Fri -- 12:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:51 AM AKST     6.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:38 AM AKST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 04:11 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:22 PM AKST     9.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:40 PM AKST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.35.66.56.76.25.13.72.21.211.83.45.37.18.59.2986.44.52.61.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Goodnews Bay entrance, Alaska
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Goodnews Bay entrance
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Fri -- 12:55 AM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:31 AM AKST     5.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:05 AM AKST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 04:02 PM AKST     7.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM AKST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.84.65.15.14.53.52.41.30.81.123.44.866.87.26.85.84.42.81.511.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.