Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 3:26 AM   Moonset 10:25 PM

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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 254 Pm Akdt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory tonight through Wednesday - .
Tonight - S wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.Wed - S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.Wed night - S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.Thu - SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Thu night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Fri - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 072255 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 255 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

SHORT TERM
Rather active pattern going into the middle of the week as the main core of the jet stream will be aimed right at us for much of the short range period. This translates to a couple of strong, for this time of year, storms taking aim at the panhandle over the next few days.

Storm number one is slated to start impacting the area this evening and mainly will be a wind producer. Gale force winds are expected for much of the gulf and southern inner channels tonight while gusty winds to 40 or 50 mph are likely for the southern panhandle and outer coastal areas. Low chance of higher gusts in areas exposed to the S and SE but they should be isolated and infrequent if they do occur. Expected rainfall will not be much mainly around a half an inch to an inch in total through early Wednesday. Behind the system, westerly winds of 25 to 30 kt will take over across the gulf for Wednesday and may bring more gusty winds (out of the S and SW this time) for the outer coast.

Into Wed night, system number two will be starting to move into the area. Winds across the gulf will be starting to pick up again after midnight Wed night. Not as much wind expected out of this system with mostly 25 to 30 kt winds across the gulf. Rainfall however, will be increasing in intensity across the northern half of the panhandle late Wednesday night. Integrated Vapor Transport forecasts have values in the 500 to 700 Kg/ms range aimed at the northern panhandle which is a minor to moderate atmospheric river so the rainfall may be heavy at times late Wednesday night.

LONG TERM
For the start of the long term period, we will expect to see very wet weather across the northern and central panhandle.
Areas from Sitka northward to the Northeast Gulf coast near Glacier Bay are expected to see the heaviest precipitation from this event. Current rainfall estimates with this system have 1 to 2 inches of rain falling during this event. While this amount of rain is a lot for this time period and could break daily precipitation records, no major impacts are expected with the drier conditions we have had as well as rivers starting at lower flows. The southern panhandle will get in on some of the rain as the main band shifts to the south Thursday night into Friday morning. But amounts across the south are expected to remain lower than across the northern panhandle. After this system moves through, we will see a brief break across the panhandle as high pressure moves across the gulf for Friday and Saturday. This break will be short though as the next system will be pushing through the gulf and into the panhandle starting Saturday evening into Sunday morning. By the time we get to the start of next week, the active weather looks to continue with onshore flow remaining in place for SE AK.

AVIATION
Variable flight conditions bouncing between VFR and MVFR across the panhandle this early afternoon with rain showers moving through the area. Winds and wind gusts are increasing as a strong weather front moves over the eastern gulf with gusts up to 30kts near pakt,pahn and pajn. These will increase to be near 35 to 40 kt along with increasing LLWS from the southeast as the front moves over the inner channels. The LLWS will shift to the south/southwest as the front moves east of the area through the early morning hours.
The showers will transition to rain as the front moves over the area late this afternoon into tonight. This will slowly deteriorate conditions down to consistent MVFR with some locations seeing IFR conditions tonight. Conditions should lift by daybreak to be near VFR conditions and much lighter winds and limited LLWS.

MARINE
Very active marine forecast with gales to 40 kt expected across a wide area Tuesday night and small craft conditions to 30 kt across most of the rest of the area. Seas across the gulf will also be reaching 15 ft Tuesday night. Highest winds and seas are expected Tuesday evening and should be starting to diminish after midnight across the gulf and after 3 am for the inner channels.
Strong W flow to 30 kt will be felt across the gulf on Wed in the wake of this system. And that is just with the first system that will impact the area. A second system will be moving into the area late Wed night into Thursday with more small craft to near gale conditions for the gulf waters. The inner channels will not be as affected by this second system, but some S winds to 20 kt are still possible especially in the northern inner channels Thursday.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ318.
Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for AKZ323.
Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for AKZ327.
Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for AKZ328-330-332.
Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ329.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-035-036-641>644-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>034-053-651-652.

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