Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 2:25 AM AKDT (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 2:18AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 300 Pm Akdt Tue May 22 2018
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230149
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
549 pm akdt Tue may 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low continues to spin over the gulf, bringing
showers primarily to the gulf coast. Inland areas of southcentral
alaska are mostly dry, with scattered showers advecting across
the northwest copper river basin right ahead of a weak upper level
wave. Out west, a gale force low is tracking eastward across the
western aleutians. Satellite imagery shows a frontal system
associated with this deep low spreading north and east across the
bering sea and aleutians.

An upper level col is sitting over the southwest alaska coast.

As is typical with this feature, a stable air mass combined with
weak winds has resulted in a large area of stratus and fog over
the eastern bering and along portions of the southwest coast.

Lastly, a surface thermal trough extends from inland areas of
southwest alaska northeastward to interior alaska. This will act
as the focus for shower and thunderstorm development as surface
temperatures climb this afternoon.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement with the placement of the low in the
gulf and timing on when it will dissipate. Models are also in
agreement with the center of low tracking eastward across the
aleutians in the first 60 hours. However, there is disagreement
in the placement of a weak developing triple point low southeast
of kodiak Thursday into Friday, though this will have little
impact on the overall forecast for the region. The primary
forecast challenge for the next couple days is location and
coverage of convection over the southern alaska mainland as
weak upper level features move overhead.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. The diurnal turnagain arm wind
will continue as thermal trough strengthens over interior alaska
and ridge strengthens along the gulf coast. Pressure gradients
between coast and inland look a little stronger this afternoon and
evening, so expect winds bending into the terminal will also be a
bit stronger than yesterday. This pattern will continue again,
with winds dissipating early Wednesday and returning Wednesday
afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The persistent upper-level low remains nearly stationary over the
southern gulf through Wednesday. At the surface, weak low
pressure centers continue over the gulf with accompanying troughs
rotating north and west. Widespread showers will continue along
the coast through Thursday as the surface low weakens and the
upper-level low drifts to the north. An advancing long wave trough
will replace the retreating low in the gulf as a new surface low
develops south of kodiak island Wednesday night. This surface low
will take a similar track as the previous, drifting northward into
the gulf before slowly dissipating.

For interior locations, the coastal ridge will remain in place
and combined with the interior thermal trough will continue gusty
afternoon and evening winds along the copper river, out of the
knik valley, and over south and west anchorage through Thursday. A
sheared lobe of vorticity advecting southwestward across the
copper river basin and over the talkeetna range will provide
enough instability to produce isolated showers during the
afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A thermal trough extending across the kuskokwim valley into
bristol bay supports isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through peak heating during the evening. Southerly
flow returns across the region overnight as the next bering low
and front pushes to the central waters overnight. The exception to
this will be across inland areas of bristol bay where a weak
boundary keeps winds on the lighter side through day break
Wednesday. Patchy fog is expected to develop tonight along this
region with high surface moisture in place along with a
temperature inversion strengthening after midnight.

The bering front approaches the southwest coast Wednesday night,
however an easterly moving wave blocks any further progression.

Precipitation chances do continue through Friday with the
combination of the slow easterly wave propagating toward the coast
as a weak surface trough remains across the southwest.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Scattered to numerous showers will be ongoing as low pressure
only makes slow southeast progress through Thursday, crossing over
the eastern aleutians to the north pacific by Friday morning. A
ridge moves across the western half of the bering in the wake of
the front bringing quiet weather for the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning Friday, an upper level low will continue to dominate
the weather over the southern mainland bringing continued cloudy,
showery, and somewhat cooler weather to the region, especially
along coastal areas. A shortwave trough will move north into the
gulf on Friday bringing another round of rain to the coast though
precipitation should stay mostly on the east side of the mountain
ranges. A more well defined low pressure system will move into the
northern pacific southern gulf region by Saturday keeping cloudy
and showery conditions over coastal areas, though due to the more
southern and eastern location of the low precipitation should be
focused more over southeast alaska, with only isolated to
scattered showers over southcentral. With plenty of breaks in
between cloud cover, especially for more inland locations, temps
should be able to warm up into the 60's over the weekend. By
memorial day, models are all showing the low over the gulf moving
east out of the area allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in
by the afternoon. This should lead to a pretty decent day for
outdoor activities over most of the southern mainland.

Further west, a frontal system will rapidly move east across the
aleutians and bering sea Sunday through Tuesday, following closely behind
the transiting ridge. Models are not in agreement regarding timing
of this system, with the GFS bringing a front across the west
coast by Monday afternoon and the ec delaying it into Tuesday.

Regardless, there is consensus that there will only be a brief
period of quasi summer-like weather for the region as we head into
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 176-178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ah seb
southcentral alaska... Tm dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi44 min 44°F1009.5 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi26 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 45°F 1009 hPa (+1.0)42°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi56 min ESE 1.9 1008 hPa
HMSA2 19 mi24 min SE 2.9 G 7 46°F 1009.5 hPa38°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi33 minVar 410.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1009.8 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi33 minESE 410.00 miLight Rain47°F37°F71%1010 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7NE8NE7N54CalmN3N5N3CalmS6S844
1 day agoCalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NE9
G19
N93N6CalmNE333S3SW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmN9N8N75CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:39 AM AKDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:48 AM AKDT     11.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:01 PM AKDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:44 PM AKDT     12.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.67.253.63.44.35.87.89.610.911.310.58.86.43.921.21.83.55.98.61112.512.8

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Homer
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:12 AM AKDT     3.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:06 AM AKDT     14.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:34 PM AKDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:02 PM AKDT     16.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.310.37.14.73.64.15.88.511.413.714.714.112.39.56.23.31.51.435.89.513.115.716.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.