Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 250051 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 451 pm akdt Fri may 24 2019 Analysis and upper levels There is an upper level high centered along the alaska canada border, with another ridge building over the northern gulf and into southern alaska. Some clouds and a few showers remain over inland portions of southcentral, which is in a "col" between the two ridges. There is an upper low stretching from about the pribilofs southward into the pacific. Moisture from this low is surging northward towards the gulf and into the alaska peninsula and eastern aleutians, with an associated surface front producing fairly strong winds. High pressure is over the western bering, with its associated stratus covering most of the bering and central western aleutians. Model discussion The numerical models are in good agreement through Sunday afternoon. There are some differences in the location of a surface low near the eastern aleutians on Sunday, but over-all confidence in the forecast is above normal. Aviation Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Light winds are expected into Saturday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday afternoon. .Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Friday night through Sunday)... memorial day weekend will start out as a good one for southcentral ak. However, a fall-type low pressure system approaching from the gulf of alaska will turn weather sour Saturday night and keep it cold and wet for the rest of the weekend. Currently, high pressure moving into the area has cleared weather for much of southcentral ak. This brief period of high pressure will make for fair weather through tomorrow. The exception is kodiak, which will see the onset of low pressure tonight. Low pressure will work into kodiak island tonight and continue northeast through the western gulf tomorrow. Its leading edge will arrive along the southcentral coast tomorrow evening and push inland tomorrow night. The best chance for rain with this system in the anchorage area is tomorrow night into Sunday morning. By Sunday, all of southcentral will see at least a chance of showers, with coastal areas seeing the most precipitation. It should also be noted that windy conditions are expected with this system. The strongest winds will stay offshore with a barrier jet setup, but we are expecting gap winds to start as this system approaches tomorrow. This includes turnagain arm, knik river valley and the copper river. Winds on the hillsides of anchorage will also be strong. However, wind will not be strong

enough to cause issuance of any wind warnings. The main impact of this system will be dampening outdoor plans for the holiday weekend. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) Fair skies will persist across much of southwest through this evening ahead of a ridge over the bering. Moderate rain and gusty easterly winds will develop from south to north Saturday morning as a broad low moves northward across the central aleutians. The associated upper level low will stall over the same area and generate a series of shortwave troughs over southwest. As such, although winds will diminish Saturday evening, widespread showers are expected to continue through the holiday weekend. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2) An active pattern is expected across the bering in the coming days. A northward moving low is currently bringing rain and gusty winds to portions of the eastern and central aleutians. Another low near the kamchatka peninsula will bring similar conditions to the western aleutians beginning early Saturday morning. Winds will diminish this evening, however showers will continue through the holiday weekend as the first low stalls over the bering. Marine (days 3 through 5 Sunday through Tuesday) No significant impacts expected, with fairly high confidence that winds will remain below gale force across the region. Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Monday through Friday) It's still looking like a transition to a wetter pattern for later in memorial day weekend. While the weekend will start with nice weather in the short-term, Saturday into Sunday we are expecting a shift to wet weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend. The culprit for dampening this weekend is a broad area of low pressure moving north into the western gulf of alaska. More details to follow in the coming days with this system. Overall, the pattern shows that the upper level low will linger in the southern bering through the weekend. This means that there is high confidence that the pattern will remain wetter than average through Thursday. However, model confidence is not high enough to know specifics with lows and their associated fronts at this time, so timing of individual fronts and breaks in the weather may differ as we move forward through the week. Therefore, an ensemble of models was used to depict the general sense of wet and cool weather for the next week or so. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale warning 120 130 131 132 137 138 150 178. Fire weather... None. Synopsis and model discussion... Bl southcentral alaska... Bb southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap marine long term... Lf

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	55 min			46°F		1020.6 hPa (-0.7)
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	55 min			46°F	1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	55 min	NW 4.1 G 4.1	46°F			1020.9 hPa (-0.8)	41°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	85 min	Calm	47°F			1020 hPa	44°F
HMSA2	19 mi	43 min	SSE 1 G 1.9	48°F			1020.5 hPa	41°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	55 min	E 9.9 G 11	43°F			1021.3 hPa (-0.7)	42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	62 min	SSE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	50°F	39°F	66%	1020.9 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	62 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	47°F	43°F	86%	1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.