Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 141345 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 445 am akst Wed nov 14 2018 Analysis and upper levels There is a surface low south of kodiak with an occlusion wrapped into it with a second decaying low situated south of false pass. A third low south of the central aleutians is undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, which is also where the jet core is located. There is a ridge axis building over the western aleutians. On the satellite which has been verified in multiple surface based observation platforms, there has been fog over portions of anchorage bowl, knik arm and the kenai peninsula. Model discussion The models are decent agreement with the synoptic features through Thursday, after which the solutions begin to diverge. The area that is the biggest eye sore is the new low in the north pacific, which is on a course for the akpen. With the ridge in place over southcentral, fog will remain the main forecast challenge. Aviation Panc... Patchy fog from yesterday evening quickly turned into dense fog overnight. Fog often ebbs and flows resulting in fluctuations in visibility which was observed in the early hours of this morning. The current thinking is that the atmosphere is stable enough to hold onto the fog until as late at 10 am. .Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today through Thursday night)... high pressure will build over southcentral alaska the next couple days as the current low over the gulf exits off to southeast alaska. Surface inversions already in place across much of the region will only strengthen as the ridge builds in. Thus, expect areas of dense fog to persist through at least Thursday, especially in the cook inlet region. This includes the western kenai peninsula, anchorage and portions of the mat-su. The copper river basin would be the other area favored for persistent fog. Areas not in the fog can expect abundant sunshine during the daytime. Colder air filtering down from the north will support northerly flow and localized gap winds along the coast, including seward, whittier, and thompson pass areas. As far as gap wind events go, this one will be quite weak. As the ridge begins to slide eastward Thursday night, a storm system will lift northward from the pacific, with a gale force front bringing rain and wind to kodiak island Thursday night. If there is any fog remaining over southcentral (which is a distinct possibility), increasing clouds (and eventually precipitation) should clear it out Thursday night or Friday. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Wed through fri)... The relative "lull" in the pattern will continue through thu. The only weather features of substance are the snow showers along the yk-delta coast and the low stratus across much of the kuskokwim valley and delta. The snow showers are associated with a baroclinic zone that is nearly stationary over the hooper bay area. This feature should begin a slide to the west over the open ocean later today. The other problem is the low stratus currently stuck across much of the northern interior of the region. The offshore surface winds have been enough to keep any fog from forming thus far. However, a fairly dense shield of stratus is in place. As high pressure settles over the area today and winds begin to relax, it could be difficult to break this stratus up. If the stratus does break and some radiational cooling can take place tonight into thu, there should be a better chance for fog Thu morning. Yet another warm system starts to press up into bristol bay by late Thu into early fri. This system will bring another round of east to southeast winds, especially through the usual gaps. There should be enough cold air back in the valleys of SW ak to allow precipitation to at least start as snow. However, as warm air moves overhead and southeast winds mixing down to the surface,

expect precipitation to change over to rain rather quickly. There is an outside shot for some freezing rain once again in this scenario, but at this time the surface temperatures look to warm too quickly to add it into the forecast. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3 Wed through fri)... the majority of the bering will be dominated by colder northerly flow and rain (turning to snow) showers today before a few systems move in take shape on thu. First, what were once strong storm- force northerlies have diminished all the way down to just barely small- craft level winds over the central bering. This flow will continue to abate today. However, the cold air over the central and western bering will work in tandem with some warmer air over the eastern bering. This will create an environment ripe for continued showers and even for a surface low to develop near st matthew island late thu. Moisture and warm air will move back into bristol bay as another warm front slides into the area from the N pacific late thu. This will bring an increase in easterly winds and widespread stratiform rain and snow. The other system is a weakening warm front that will push into the western aleutians early thu. This system will bring gale-force easterly winds and steady precipitation. The precipitation will start as a mix of rain and snow before quickly transitioning to all rain as warm air plows in from the N pacific. Long term forecast (days 3 through 7) The long-term forecast begins Thursday night with an amplifying upper-level ridge moving from the gulf over the alaska peninsula. Upstream, a negatively-tilted trough persists from the eastern bering south to the western gulf while a second trough deepens over the western aleutians as a strengthening jet rounds its base. Through the first half of the weekend, the longwave pattern remains fairly progressive, with the leading ridge moving well inland over canada as the main trough axis settles along the west coast of alaska. Moving into early next week the eastward progression of the trough slows as it anchors over the eastern half of the state. Model agreement breaks down significantly after Monday, especially with their respective solutions upstream of the trough axis. The GFS is the more amplified solution, trying to build a ridge over the bering ahead of the next trough exiting eastern russia. The ec, on the other hand, keeps the pattern zonal with an active jet south of the aleutians and a broad low over the bering. The canadian takes the middle ground with weak ridging over the bering quickly replaced by a trough. What this means is that guidance in the medium and near long-term range (through the weekend) remains in good agreement with a wet and active pattern across much of the forecast area. Beyond that, there is some agreement of a trough ridge trough setup from the western bering to the eastern bering to the gulf. But confidence on placement and intensity of these features is slim to none. At the surface, this translates to a low approaching kodiak island late Thursday with a trough extending across the bering keeping things unsettled over southwest alaska. The low moves into the northern gulf with its occluded front draped across the southcentral coast by early Friday. Farther west, a second surface low slides across the aleutians Thursday into Friday with its occluded front nearing the southwest coast late Friday. A triple point low is also expected to form south of the akpen late Friday, moving into the western and northern gulf through the weekend. This will keep conditions quite wet an unsettled over much of the mainland through the weekend with some drying likely for southwest alaska by late Monday into Tuesday as a weak surface ridge tries to develop. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... Dense fog advisory 101 121. Marine... Gale warning 150 177 178. Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs southcentral alaska... Seb southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mso long term... Tm

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	1 mi	33 min			46°F		1008.5 hPa (+1.9)
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	93 min			45°F	1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	17 mi	33 min	NNE 4.1 G 5.1	42°F			1008.5 hPa (+2.1)	40°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	19 mi	63 min	Calm				1007 hPa
HMSA2	19 mi	21 min	E 1.9 G 2.9	40°F			1008.4 hPa	28°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK	39 mi	33 min	NNW 9.9 G 11	44°F			1007.9 hPa (+2.0)	39°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	1 mi	40 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	32°F	89%	1008.7 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	18 mi	40 min	ENE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	40°F	34°F	79%	1009 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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