Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Saturday May 25, 2019 2:55 AM AKDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 337 Pm Akdt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250051
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
451 pm akdt Fri may 24 2019

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level high centered along the alaska canada
border, with another ridge building over the northern gulf and
into southern alaska. Some clouds and a few showers remain over
inland portions of southcentral, which is in a "col" between the
two ridges. There is an upper low stretching from about the
pribilofs southward into the pacific. Moisture from this low is
surging northward towards the gulf and into the alaska peninsula
and eastern aleutians, with an associated surface front producing
fairly strong winds. High pressure is over the western bering,
with its associated stratus covering most of the bering and
central western aleutians.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement through Sunday afternoon.

There are some differences in the location of a surface low near
the eastern aleutians on Sunday, but over-all confidence in the
forecast is above normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Light winds are expected
into Saturday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will develop
Saturday afternoon.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Friday
night through Sunday)...

memorial day weekend will start out as a good one for southcentral
ak. However, a fall-type low pressure system approaching from the
gulf of alaska will turn weather sour Saturday night and keep it
cold and wet for the rest of the weekend.

Currently, high pressure moving into the area has cleared weather
for much of southcentral ak. This brief period of high pressure
will make for fair weather through tomorrow. The exception is
kodiak, which will see the onset of low pressure tonight. Low
pressure will work into kodiak island tonight and continue
northeast through the western gulf tomorrow. Its leading edge
will arrive along the southcentral coast tomorrow evening and push
inland tomorrow night. The best chance for rain with this system
in the anchorage area is tomorrow night into Sunday morning. By
Sunday, all of southcentral will see at least a chance of showers,
with coastal areas seeing the most precipitation.

It should also be noted that windy conditions are expected with
this system. The strongest winds will stay offshore with a
barrier jet setup, but we are expecting gap winds to start as this
system approaches tomorrow. This includes turnagain arm, knik
river valley and the copper river. Winds on the hillsides of
anchorage will also be strong. However, wind will not be strong
enough to cause issuance of any wind warnings. The main impact of
this system will be dampening outdoor plans for the holiday
weekend.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Fair skies will persist across much of southwest through this
evening ahead of a ridge over the bering. Moderate rain and gusty
easterly winds will develop from south to north Saturday morning
as a broad low moves northward across the central aleutians. The
associated upper level low will stall over the same area and
generate a series of shortwave troughs over southwest. As such,
although winds will diminish Saturday evening, widespread showers
are expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
An active pattern is expected across the bering in the coming
days. A northward moving low is currently bringing rain and gusty
winds to portions of the eastern and central aleutians. Another
low near the kamchatka peninsula will bring similar conditions to
the western aleutians beginning early Saturday morning. Winds will
diminish this evening, however showers will continue through the
holiday weekend as the first low stalls over the bering.

Marine (days 3 through 5 Sunday through Tuesday)
No significant impacts expected, with fairly high confidence that
winds will remain below gale force across the region.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Monday through Friday)
It's still looking like a transition to a wetter pattern for
later in memorial day weekend. While the weekend will start with
nice weather in the short-term, Saturday into Sunday we are
expecting a shift to wet weather for the remainder of the holiday
weekend. The culprit for dampening this weekend is a broad area of
low pressure moving north into the western gulf of alaska. More
details to follow in the coming days with this system.

Overall, the pattern shows that the upper level low will linger in
the southern bering through the weekend. This means that there is
high confidence that the pattern will remain wetter than average
through Thursday. However, model confidence is not high enough to
know specifics with lows and their associated fronts at this
time, so timing of individual fronts and breaks in the weather
may differ as we move forward through the week. Therefore, an
ensemble of models was used to depict the general sense of wet
and cool weather for the next week or so.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 120 130 131 132 137 138 150 178.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Bb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi55 min 46°F1020.6 hPa (-0.7)
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi55 min 46°F1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi55 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 46°F 1020.9 hPa (-0.8)41°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 19 mi85 min Calm 47°F 1020 hPa44°F
HMSA2 19 mi43 min SSE 1 G 1.9 48°F 1020.5 hPa41°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi55 min E 9.9 G 11 43°F 1021.3 hPa (-0.7)42°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi62 minSSE 410.00 miFair50°F39°F66%1020.9 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair47°F43°F86%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ASO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNE3N6NE7N4NE7NE9NE8N6N73NE5N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4
1 day agoCalmN6CalmCalmCalmS4S6S5CalmNE4SW5CalmCalmNE753333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS7S6S5SW7
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Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Seldovia, Alaska
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Seldovia
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Sat -- 01:30 AM AKDT     6.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM AKDT     13.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:49 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:55 PM AKDT     2.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:51 PM AKDT     13.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.66.36.37.59.311.31313.913.612.19.87.24.83.12.63.34.97.19.511.713.213.61311.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Graham, Alaska
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Port Graham
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM AKDT     6.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:08 AM AKDT     12.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:41 PM AKDT     2.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:43 PM AKDT     12.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.16.26.47.69.210.912.312.912.510.98.76.44.22.92.63.55.17.19.211.212.412.611.910.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.