Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 10:05 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM   Moonset 8:21 AM

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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sun - N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 301327 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 527 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

Relatively quiet weather remains in place across much of southcentral Alaska. A low-amplitude ridge continues to weaken / shift east as an upper-level trough digs south towards the Gulf of Alaska. Southerly flow ahead of this system has already brought in widespread cloud cover to much of southcentral.

Shower activity will ramp up today, with the bulk of the precipitation across Kodiak, along the immediate Southcentral coast, and across the south to southwesterly facing foothills of the interior mountain ranges. Most inland valley locations should remain dry due to downsloping winds; however an isolated shower, especially Tuesday, is not out of the question. The shift in the pattern will also bring a return of southeasterly gap winds, with the strongest winds likely today and Wednesday afternoon and evening across Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and near the Copper River.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

Weak ridging extending west across southern mainland Alaska will break down over Southwest Alaska today as a low pushes east across the Bering Sea. A series of weak shortwave troughs lifting north into Southwest Alaska have curtailed the spread of dense fog across Southwest Alaska somewhat, with low visibility conditions mostly confined to areas along the Kuskokwim Delta and northern Bristol Bay coasts. The increased mixing/instability afforded by the troughs should allow for fog to burn off earlier in the morning today as compared to yesterday. Additionally, it will allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers across the lower elevations this afternoon.

Southeasterly winds increase for much of Southwest Alaska Tuesday night as the front off the low in the Bering Sea pushes up the Alaska Peninsula. This will shift the focus of precipitation to primarily upslope areas along the northern Bristol Bay coastline, with more isolated showers elsewhere. The front weakens as it pushes slowly into Southwest Alaska, promoting shower activity over Bristol Bay Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Out west, another low approaches the western Aleutians on Wednesday.
Its gale force front pushes through the western Aleutians Wednesday night, but weakens quickly below gales for Thursday as the low tracks into the Bering Sea. The low brings a round of rain to the Aleutian Chain as its front pushes east through Thursday, reaching the Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula by Thursday night. There is some potential for gale force winds on the south side of the low to affect the central Aleutians Thursday night.

CQ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A weak ridge wobbles between the Northern Interior and the Arctic Coast and weakens by Monday. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure stretches across the Aleutians and Bering into Mainland Alaska through the forecast period. A series of surface low track over or along the Aleutians and cross the Alaska Peninsula over Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska into next week. Ensemble models demonstrate good confidence through the weekend, but diverge into the new week. A well developed area of gusty winds with gale force gusts push over the Western and Central Aleutians, diminishing late Saturday, but linger along the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN for Sunday. Widespread precipitation accompanies the low, with locally heavy amounts expected for the AKPEN and along the Alaska Range and Eastern Kodiak Island Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall continues along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula over Prince William Sound and along the Southcentral Coast through Sunday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this morning. High confidence for Turnagain Arm winds to bend into Anchorage this afternoon. Southeasterly winds are expected to increase around 1PM today with sustained wind speeds from 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots over the terminal. Winds look to peak in the late afternoon/early evening and will gradually diminish overnight. Can't completely rule out a shower in the vicinity this afternoon and Wednesday, but the probabilities remain very low.

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