Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

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Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 11:02PM Monday July 23, 2018 7:38 AM AKDT (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 348 Am Akdt Mon Jul 23 2018
Today..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231233
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
433 am akdt Mon jul 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The ridge axis has shifted eastward over southeast alaska and the
yukon territory. There is a longwave trough extending from the
bering to the north pacific eastern gulf of alaska with multiple
shortwaves embedded in it. At the surface, there is an occluded
low just southwest of kodiak and this system has brought cloudy
skies to the anchorage metro area. There is a secondary decaying
low between the pribilof islands and the aleutian chain. Moisture
has advected into the akpen, southwest and southcentral. Showers
have been detected on the radars at bethel, king salmon and kenai.

Additionally, this pattern has resulted in gap winds for portions
of the alaska and aleutian ranges. Looking upstream, there is
another low southeast of kamchatka.

Model discussion
The models are in good agreement through 72 hrs with the placement
of the main synoptic features which is reflected at the surface
and at 500 mb. There are minor timing differences with the waves
of precipitation but generally expecting broad and moist southwest
and southerly flow across southcentral.

Aviation
Panc... A cirrus deck and and an alto-cu layer have moved up cook
inlet and into the panc aerodrome.VFR conditions are expected for
the ensuing 30 hr period. But there definitely is moisture
advecting towards panc.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
While the upper level ridge has shifted eastward into western
canada, subsidence and anticyclonic flow will persist over the
copper river basin the next couple days. This will maintain hot
and dry conditions. Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low over the
bering sea will drop south of the alaska peninsula on Tuesday,
with a plethora of upper waves rounding the low and crossing the
western gulf, kodiak island and kenai peninsula. This will bring
periods of rain to the southern to eastern kenai peninsula and
steady heavier rain to kodiak island. The persistent southeast
flow will keep the western kenai mostly dry, though expect
scattered showers as short-waves move through. Areas north and
east of the kenai peninsula will see some mid to high clouds,
but remain dry.

As the upper level low trough amplify over the north central
pacific on Wednesday, this will build up the downstream ridge
and lead to strengthening southerly flow from the northeast
pacific to southcentral. This will drive short-waves inland
across southcentral, leading to lowering clouds and increased
chances of showers or rain.

Fire weather
A few different stations in the heart of the copper river basin
(near glennallen) reached red flag criteria yesterday. Today looks
very similar, with high temps just a few degrees cooler (with the
strongest portion of the upper ridge now to the east) and winds a
bit stronger with a more favorable surface ridge location. Thus,
confidence is high that critical fire weather conditions will
once again be met late this afternoon through early evening. On
Tuesday, expect increasing high clouds will be just enough to
produce marginally cooler moister conditions, but conditions
may come close to red flag criteria once again.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (through Thursday morning)
The active weather literally revolves around an eastern bering
sea stacked low pressure system. The second disturbance rounding
the upper level trough is rolling across the akpen this morning,
and will continue to spread rain over mainly the bristol bay area
this morning. Rain will also spread into the southern kuskokwim
valley. The kuskokwim delta could see some light rain making it
over the mountains, but will largely remain downsloped and dry.

Behind the upper level disturbance, general easterly flow remains
which will continue to promote upslope precipitation along the
wood river mountains, along with several lesser disturbances
within the cyclonic flow aloft. That particular setup will promote
showers through Tuesday evening. Tuesday evening will see some
warmer air poking into the kuskokwim valley, which will bring
instability and the chance for thunderstorms from sleetmute
northward. Yet another trough from the bering sea (now north
pacific) storm, swings overhead on Wednesday. Showers will remain
in the forecast, mainly for bristol bay, with another chance for
thunder in the valley. Expect above average temperatures and light
to moderate easterly winds through the period, with abundant cloud
cover.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The low pressure over the eastern bering will remain parked over
the area through the period. Widespread rain showers will slowly
taper off today, but linger through Thursday, mainly along the
alaska peninsula. A front over the western bering will keep rain
over the western aleutians bering through Wednesday before it
moves away. A very warm air mass will move into the western bering
behind this front, beginning today. The air mass will promote
widespread stratus and fog.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The longwave pattern beginning Wednesday is a longwave trough
extending through mainland alaska and across the alaska peninsula
with a low anchoring the trough south of the alaska peninsula. On
either side of the trough is ridging with the stronger ridge to
the west. This setup should remain through the end of the week
which would bring southerly flow and rain to the southern
mainland with the majority of the rain along the north gulf coast.

There is more uncertainty amongst the models heading toward the
weekend, but the general consensus is of a low flattening out the
ridge over the western aleutians and tracking into the bering. At
the same time the alaska peninsula low would diminish and ridging
over the eastern gulf would intensify through the weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mtl
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 12 mi26 min SE 7 G 13 57°F 1020.8 hPa47°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 12 mi68 min SSE 8 1020 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi44 min 50°F1021.1 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi38 min 54°F1 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi38 min W 6 G 8.9 55°F 1021 hPa (-0.4)51°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi38 min SE 15 G 17 51°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)51°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F50°F81%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4E4S4SW5SW5W8W7W763W4CalmSE4E4S3NE4N3CalmCalmCalmNE4SE6Calm
1 day agoW4S3SW6SW7SW7SW9W10
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2 days agoNE3E5E5E6NE5SW7SW6SW8SW6SW6W5W7SW6SW4SW4CalmCalmNE4NE3NE4NE5NE5NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM AKDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 PM AKDT     14.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM AKDT     5.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.615.513.2106.53.51.91.83.25.891214.114.914.312.49.77.15.75.87.29.712.715.3

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Homer
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:31 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:29 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM AKDT     14.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM AKDT     5.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1614.912.79.66.23.41.81.735.68.811.813.714.413.711.99.475.65.679.512.415

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.