Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halibut Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:46AMSunset 4:34PM Saturday January 19, 2019 5:21 PM AKST (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 335 Pm Akst Sat Jan 19 2019
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon and Mon night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halibut Cove, AK
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location: 59.51, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200219
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
519 pm akst Sat jan 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Southcentral and southwest mainland alaska remain in a relatively
quiet pattern this afternoon. The fog that has been hanging
around stretches from palmer along the western anchorage bowl
down through turnagain arm, but has decreased in coverage from
what was seen yesterday. The cook inlet has seen a lot of drying
this afternoon, resulting in less foggy conditions. Increased
offshore flow continues over southcentral. A highly amplified
ridge over the eastern bering is bringing high pressure,
resulting in calm and mostly dry conditions for the akpen and
southwest mainland. A few light snow showers were seen across the
kuskokwim delta due to a weak surface low. Things are a bit more
interesting out west with a low sitting west of shemya and a
stronger low south of adak lifting northward. A front stretching
across the western and central aleutians has brought precip and
strong gale force winds along the frontal boundary.

Model discussion
Models are in fine synoptic agreement into the middle of next week
and then degrade quickly. For the closer term forecasts the main
questions are to the speed of the upper level wave moving from the
gulf into southcentral alaska Sunday evening into Monday. The nam
has slowed considerably from the 12z to 18z model runs with this
wave and is now slower than the GFS or ec. This will be something
to continue to watch. Farther west there is a strong low near the
960 mb level which will move from the pacific to the central
aleutians on Sunday night. Models are overall strengthening the
front associated with this low and we are now expecting storm
force winds in the central aleutians with this front. It should
also be noted that there is a nearly 250 mile difference in
placement of this low on Sunday night between the ec and the
canadian models with the GFS and NAM in between those positions.

While the elongated structure of the low will help to mitigate the
sensible impacts of this difference, it could make a large
difference in how this low develops and tracks though the middle
of next week.

Aviation
Panc... Fog will remain the main challenge through Sunday afternoon
as clear skies (above the fog) will keep the inversion around and
the radiative cooling process going. A short wave moving over the
area from the northwest this afternoon has the potential to
decrease the fog some if the vertical mixing increases. However, at
this time it looks that in spite of some breaks, it will remain
more on the foggy side at the terminal into Sunday.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today
through Sunday night)...

a slow transition in the synoptic pattern is expected through
Monday with the jet stream pushing a warmer north pacific system
toward the southern mainland. In the meanwhile, Sunday will be dry
and cold along with patchy fog along the inlet and valleys. Skies
will be mostly clear for viewing the lunar eclipse for much of
southcentral... The exception to this may be across the copper
river basin. The next front races up from the north pacific
Sunday night, however its progress slows while moving to the gulf
as the associated surface low stalls just south of the eastern
aleutians.

Current forecast trends were kept with the boundary moving across
the southern gulf and kodiak island by Monday morning.

Precipitation along the front may start as snow, then changes
quickly over to rain with this warm core system. The front pushes
north across the kenai by Monday early afternoon and continues
north spreading rain to the northeast gulf waters and prince
william sound. Snow is expected for coastal locations as the cold
air mass persists under offshore flow at the surface. Snow will
be light along the western kenai with this first frontal push of
the week, as low level easterly flow limits accumulations due to
downsloping over the mountains.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Cold and dry conditions will persist across much of southwest
alaska through the remainder of the weekend as a northeasterly
offshore flow dominates. The exception to this will be clouds
sliding north to south over the yk-delta overnight into early
Sunday as a weak surface trough rotates around a dome of high
pressure anchored over the central bering. The patchy fog that
developed yesterday along the alaska range and lifted to a low
stratus layer today may reform again tonight with no surface wind
flow to drive out the lingering low-level moisture.

The pattern then begins to change and become more active from
south to north late Sunday into Monday as a strengthening north
pacific low moves toward the central aleutians, pushing the
bering high north. An occluded front stretched east of the low
will drive across the akpen Sunday night then lift slowly north
into bristol bay Monday. Precipitation along the front will begin
as snow, but transition to rain along the southern half of the
akpen as warmer air moves in from the south. As the front slows
over bristol bay, an upper-level vorticity maximum will move over
the southwest helping to enhance snowfall, especially from
dillingham north into the kilbuck mountains where light
accumulations are possible. As this frontal system weakens, a
second front (and potential triple point low) pinwheeling north
from the parent low moves toward the akpen late Monday and across
the southwest Tuesday. This system will bring another round of a
rain snow mix along the akpen and snow across the southwest, with
light accumulations again for dillingham and points north.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A low west of shemya will continue to weaken tonight as it lifts
to the north and west. High pressure over the central bering is
keeping conditions rather quiet with only a few bands low stratus
from nunivak island to the pribilofs. For the central aleutians,
clouds and winds will be on the increase tonight as a deepening
north pacific low approaches from the south. This system will
deepen into a storm-force low tomorrow. The band of storm-force
winds accompanying the low will lift from the pacific side to the
bering side of the central aleutians Sunday night as the low
reaches the chain then begins to drift slowly back to the west
toward atka. Widespread gales will also spread north across the
central and western bering Sunday night through early Tuesday.

These winds will also impact the pribilofs where blowing snow
could be an issue late Monday into Tuesday as snow along the
occluded front lifts into the area. Cold air will be in place over
the aleutians during the onset of this event, so expect
precipitation to begin as snow. However, as warmer air quickly
lifts up from the south, precipitation over the aleutians will
transition to mostly rain by early Monday. Although weakening
slowly, this low will remain fairly stationary through Tuesday.

Therefore, expect precipitation (mainly snow showers) and
widespread gales to to linger across the bering into mid-week.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)
The marine outlook is fraught with uncertainty through this period
with significant model uncertainty. Most of the models have a low
somewhere over the central aleutians on Tuesday morning, but there
are several hundred miles difference in the centers between the
western-most ec and the eastern-most canadian models at that time.

This low remains more-or-less stationary into Wednesday and acts
as an anchor low as a series of additional waves of low pressure
move northward across the eastern aleutians alaska peninsula
through Thursday. Each of the lows has the potential to produce
gales and perhaps even some storm force winds in localized areas,
but with large model uncertainty Wednesday and Thursday in both
timing and storm track, where and when those strong winds will
occur cannot be said at this point. The gulf will be relatively
quiet, though any fronts or lows that take a more eastward track
my produce gale force winds at times across the western gulf as
well.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)
Model uncertainty with the track of individual lows and as a
result, any hazardous weather associated therewith is high today.

A few things can be said regarding the large-scale weather
pattern, however. An upper level trough over the central bering
will shift west and consolidate into an upper level low that will
persist over the western bering through Saturday. Further east,
an upper level ridge over the western half of north america will
amplify through the week. With much of mainland alaska in between,
this will set the stage for the pattern to become increasingly
active as the upper level winds turn predominately out of the
south. The southerly winds and frequent bouts of precipitation
should return southern alaska to a notably warmer and cloudier
weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. The upper low shifts
further west towards kamchatka, which in turn will shift the
storm track slowly westward in time perhaps allowing for quieter
weather for the weekend. A quieter weather pattern may start to
allow temperatures to moderate cooler back towards seasonal
normals, but until then warm and wet will be the weather theme.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storms 172-174. Gales 130 155 165 170 171 175 177
179 411-414. Heavy freezing spray 160 180 185 411.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
marine long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 12 mi52 min ENE 11 29°F 1000 hPa19°F
HMSA2 12 mi30 min NE 12 G 16 27°F 1001.2 hPa17°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 27 mi34 min 42°F1001.4 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 33 mi52 min 42°F2 ft
APXA2 39 mi97 min NNE 5.1 27°F 1002 hPa14°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 43 mi52 min N 21 G 23 32°F 1000.5 hPa19°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 57 mi52 min W 11 G 24 32°F 999.3 hPa25°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK17 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair25°F15°F66%1001.9 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5NE3NE4NE7NE4NE5NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE8NE7NE6E5CalmE7E9E45CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3E4E4CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.