Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 6:21PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:50 PM EDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 232011
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
411 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in place over the region overnight. A
weak back door cold front will approach from the north Sunday
morning and cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening. After
stalling just south of the region late Sunday night, the front
will then lift back north across all of the region on Monday as
a warm front.

Near term through Sunday
Skies will remain mclr across the rgn going into the eve hrs
with hi mid cldnss from cntrl qb movg into the N hlf of the fa
and low cldnss and patchy fog movg onshore to downeast areas
from the gulf of me both late tngt. Ovrngt lows will be quite
mild, despite a sig drop from this aftn's hi temps due to how
unseasonably warm hi temps were tdy.

Sun will begin ptly to msly sunny across the rgn aft early morn
patchy fog dissipates across downeast and E cntrl ptns of the
fa. A weak backdoor cold front from cntrl qb will move swrd into
nrn ptns of the area by mid aftn working swrd to the coast by
ovrngt as an upper lvl disturbance works ese ovr the rgn. With
sfc dwpts surging well into the 60s ahead of this front, there
will be enough instability for isold to sct tstms mainly along
the ERN me nb border trailing SW into interior downeast areas at
cnvctv initiation tm with fcst MAX sref sbcapes are apchg 1000
j kg ovr these areas attm. Given only modest mid lvl lapse
rates, we will hold off on enhanced TSTM wording attm, although
it should be noted that there is some mid to upper lvl shear as
indicative of of 25 to 35 kt of 0-6km bulk shear.

Prior to TSTM development, there should be ample sunshine, spcly
ovr cntrl and interior downeast areas when combined with
downslope winds and record fcst aftn MAX 925mb of mid 20s deg c,
hi temps will likely apch 90 deg ovr low trrn lctns there and
well in the 80s ovr low trrn lctns to the n. Coastal downeast
lctns will likely be tempered by a shallow sea breeze
circulation.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
The summerlike conditions will continue through early next week
as a large upper ridge remains parked to to our south and west.

A frontal boundary will waver across the state through the
period, but don't expect much more than a few showers or
thunderstorms from this each afternoon. Temperatures will be
very mild, with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s and
80s. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with some locations
approaching 90. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well, so nights
will be on the muggy side.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
After another muggy night Tuesday, showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west. This front will cross the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for later
next week. High pressure will briefly build over the area later
Thursday through Friday, but showers will threaten again
Saturday as the upper trough swings across the area. Hurricane
maria looks to stay well to our south Thursday and Friday,
though it may produce long-period swell along the coast.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Near term: mainlyVFR is xpctd at the TAF sites tngt thru sun
with a brief pd of MVFR ifr vsbys clgs with patchy fog and st
cld cvr possible late tngt into erly Sun morn ovr downeast taf
sites, spcly kbhb.

Short term:VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight
hours, but ifr lifr will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each
day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, but the better chance for precipitation and
possible lowered vis ceilings will be after 16z Wed as a cold
front approaches from the west.

Marine
Near term: we finally dropped the SCA for seas ovr our outer mzs
with WV hts at the ERN me shelf and jonesport buoys msly at or
below 5 ft, with the trend xpctd to cont to subside a little
more ovr the next 6 hrs. We kept close to ww3 WV guidance for
fcst WV hts for this ptn of the fcst with primary WV pds varying
from 8 to 10 sec from residual swell energy from jose to 12 to
16 sec from long distance swell radiating from maria. St cld cvr
and areas of marine fog will likely work back toward the coast
ovrngt and then back offshore during the late morn and aftn hrs.

Lastly, we will likely need another paddle risk beach statement
for area beaches for Sun due to the unseasonably warm air temps
in close proximity to near shore waters.

Short term: seas will build to 4 to 6 feet early next week, so a small
craft advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only
concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3sm at
times.

Climate
Record high temps are likely at multiple locations Sunday
afternoon. Current records for this date are:
Sunday september 24th
caribou... ... .80 deg set in 1958
bangor... ... ..88 deg set in 1930
houlton... ... .81 deg set in 1958
millinocket... 86 deg set in 1920

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for mez029-
030.

Marine... None.

Near term... Vjn
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
aviation... Vjn hastings
marine... Vjn hastings
climate... Vjn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.