Monday, May21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:27AMSunset 8:16PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 211410
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1010 am edt Mon may 21 2018

High pressure will build in from the west today. A warm front
will cross the region Tuesday followed by a cold front for late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure will
then build toward the region Wednesday afternoon and night.

Near term through tonight
10 am update...

raised high temperatures this afternoon as we are already
closing in on previously forecasted MAX temperatures. Increased
wind gusts as deep mixed layer will result in gust potential to
35 mph at times this afternoon across the north. Lastly, lowered
min temperatures for tonight and added areas of frost to the
normally colder sheltered valleys of the north, where lows last
night fell into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Will strongly
consider a frost advisory for tonight for eastern portions of
aroostook county where the frost freeze program begins today.

Previous discussion
low pressure is located to the north of the region and will
produce gusty winds today. At the same time high pressure over
the great lakes will build in from the west and crest over the
region tonight. Dry conditions are expected through tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
By Tue mrng, expect temps to hv risen into the 40s as wmfnt mvs in
fm system ovr canada. Srly flow wl increase cld cvr and dwpts drg
the day on tue. May see an isold shower early in the mrng acrs the
north and west. CWA wl be sandwiched in btwn two areas of frcg on
tue with system to our north acrs SRN quebec and another system in
the great lks. Isold-sctd showers possible drg the day on Tue cwa-
wide with QPF amnts only ranging arnd a few hundredths of an inch
thru 00z wed.

By Tue night frontal bndry wl be draped nr NRN maine quebec brdr
with vry little mvmnt being shown until Wed mrng. Zonal flow aloft
gives way to NW flow as potent vort MAX drops twd the area aft 15z
wed. Cdfnt looks to be located nr interior downeast areas by 18z and
this may result in destabilizing airmass, thus hv added in slgt chc
for thunder acrs SRN sections with the exception of immediate
coastal areas as they wl be cooled as a result of onshore flow.

Maxes on Wed wl range fm the m u50s ovr the st. John vly to nr 70
ovr SRN areas.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Hipres dominates the wx pattern Wed night thru thur bfr next wv
drops into CWA thur night bringing showers back to the region into
fri mrng. Pretty progressive WV wl be a quick-hitter with some med
range guidance indicating another WV mvs thru the area Fri night
while cmc builds sfc high in. Only a few GFS ensemble members
indicate another WV mvg thru lending credence to just slgt chc pops
on Fri night.

Models diverge for the synoptic system expected ovr the weekend. Gfs
and cmc indicate hires holds on thru Sun mrng while ec is not so
insistent and brings showers into CWA Sat aftn. Either way it
appears the weekend and possibly into the first half of next week
will be rainy.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Near term: expectVFR conditions next 24 hours.

Short term:VFR Tue morning through Thursday. May potentially
see MVFR restrictions Wed morning across the north in showers
and Wed afternoon for southern terminals. Possible MVFR
restrictions again late thur night into Fri morning before
improving toVFR.

Near term: have used a 50 50 blend of the nam GFS for winds. For
waves: the primary wave system is currently long period
southerly swell (around 4 feet 8 seconds). Also expect a
secondary southwest wind wave system (around 1 foot 5 seconds)
to develop this afternoon and persist into the early evening.

Will use nwps to initialize the waves however boundary
conditions feeding into nwps still appear to have a high bias
(probably the result of colder sea surface conditions outside
the nwps domain) so will adjust wave heights 1 foot lower
through tonight. Total water level: will lower base tide anomaly
to 0.20 through Tuesday.

Short term: winds and seas will remain blo SCA levels through
the end of the week.

Fire weather
Winds expected to gust to 25-35 mph this afternoon across the
north where min rh values are forecast to be between 30 and 35%.

For southern areas min rh values will drop just below 30%
however wind gusts will also be lower in these areas. Thus have
issued special weather statement to address hazardous fire
condition as red flag criteria is not expected to be met this

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for mez029-

Marine... None.

Near term... Duda mignone
short term... Farrar
long term... Farrar
aviation... Duda mignone farrar
marine... Duda mignone farrar
fire weather...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.