Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 6:52PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:40 AM EDT (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 271011
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
611 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move east of the area tonight as low pressure
approaches from the great lakes. Low pressure will cross the
area Monday into Tuesday.

Near term /through tonight/
Update 6:05 am: have added coastal zones to a winter weather
advisory as temperatures appear to be slow to warm at surface.

Have also adjusted temperature and dew point based on latest
observations.

Low pressure is currently passing to the west of new england as
strong high pressure moves away to the east. This is resulting
in over running precipitation spreading across the region. Snow
in coastal areas is expected to quickly change to mixed
precipitation this morning then rain along the immediate
coastline while mixed sleet and freezing rain will continue
just inland from the coast. Snow will change to mixed
precipitation in western and central areas this afternoon then
this evening in the far northeast. Have used a 50/50 blend of
the NAM and GFS for temperature grids. For precipitation type
have used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50
blend of the NAM an GFS and using 33 degrees as the cutoff
temperature for mixed/rain. For snowfall amounts will use snow
ratio blender run on the NAM using the cobb method. Expect a mix
of light freezing rain and sleet tonight.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/
Sfc low currently ovr the great lakes wl spread east and be located
north of new england by 12z tue. Expect pcpn to be ongoing at the
start of the short term as s/wv ripples acrs the state ahd of
ejecting hudson bay trof. Locations acrs downeast wl lkly see
drizzle and/or frzg drizzle Tue mrng as moisture rmns bhnd
under inversion fm departing sfc low. Mixed pcpn wl be possible
north of downeast ahd of next sfc low. By late mrng, temps look
to rise enuf to be all rain north of a dover-houlton line with
only far reaches of the st. John vly experiencing mixed pcpn in
the aftn.

Sfc low and assoc bndry mv thru CWA on Tue night with pops dropping
off fm west to east to slgt chc by Wed mrng. All med range guidance
agree on low rmng well to the south of nova scotia on Wed with only
isold-lochc pops expected acrs the nwrn zones in the aftn as h5 trof
swings thru the state. Expect maxes on Wed to be similar to tue
with mins Wed night slightly colder than prior nights.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
Brief upr lvl ridging wl bring quiet wx to the CWA thru the end of
the week. The next question centers arnd pcpn for Saturday with gfs
diving upr low well to the south acrs the mid-atlantic while ec and
cmc bring it thru new england. This, in turn, plays a significant
role in where sfc low ultimately mvs with GFS mvg it south of cape
cod while the others bring it into the gulf of maine albeit at
different times. Hv gone abv superblend for Sat with hichc acrs far
swrn zones drg the day with confidence not high enuf to go lkly at
this point. Temps thru the end of the pd wl lkly be abv normal.

Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/
Near term: expect ifr conditions through tonight.

Short term: ifr expected on Tue in mixed precip across northern
terminals and drizzle/low clouds at bgr and bhb. Expect
conditions to improve to MVFR at all terminals Wed morning.

High pressure will be building into area thur afternoon withVFR
through Friday.

Marine
Near term: have used a 50/50 blend of the nam12 and GFS for
sustained wind speeds. For waves: the primary wave system is
currently long period southerly swell (1-2 feet/8 seconds).

Expect southeasterly wind wave to build this morning (4-5 feet/5
seconds by noon) as low pressure passes to the west of new
england. East southeasterly wind wave will continue to build
this afternoon into the evening reaching a maximum of 8-9
feet/7-8 seconds by mid to late evening. Seas will begin to
subside late tonight as low pressure develops in the gulf of
maine weakening the pressure gradient. Have used the near shore
prediction system for wave heights as most of fetch area will be
confined to the nwps domain and boundary conditions from the
wwiii look reasonable. Will keep timing of SCA as is.

Short term: cannot rule out SCA levels persisting into early tue
morning but after this time seas and winds will remain below sca
criteria until Wed evening.

Car watches/warnings/advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
mez001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.

Winter weather advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mez029-
030.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Tuesday for anz050>052.

Near term... Mignone
short term... Farrar
long term... Farrar
aviation... Mignone/farrar
marine... Mignone/farrar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.