Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 3:55PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:41 AM EST (07:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 4:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 160656
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
156 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will crest north of the area overnight. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday
night and track near nova scotia on Wednesday.

Near term through today
145 am update: low clouds continue to hang on across the region
w the exception of far northern maine up along the border as
some clearing has worked its way into that area. Mrms radar
showed some light returns across the eastern sections in the
form of flurries. Followed the evening crew's assessment of
carrying flurries through the morning. NAM rap soundings showed
low clouds hanging on under a strong inversion in place. This
will keep overnight temps up some. Slight adjustments were made
to the overnight mins to bring them up a few degrees. Otherwise,
current forecast holds in place attm.

Previous discussion...

currently high pressure is centered to the north of the state
and ridges southward across the region. At the same time low
pressure is developing to the east of the gulf of maine and is
producing some very light snow in some coastal sections and off-
shore. This low will move to the northeast and away from the
region tonight while high pressure remains over the state. Low
temperature tonight is not expected to be as cold as last night
due to high and middle clouds present due to the low passing
well to the east. More high clouds are also expected late
tonight from a weak system approaching from the west.

Short term tonight through Thursday
Should be just starting to see vry lgt snow spread into the area by
the start of the short term. Coastal front looks to set up Tue evng
and expect lgt snow wl begin to break out in convergence area along
frontal bndry and continue thru Wed aftn. Latest med range guidance
is in two different camps with the nam GFS slower and further south
than ec cmc. As expected this result in significant discrepancies in
qpf amnts for Wed aftn. Nam GFS indicates around 0.15" liquid falls
acrs downeast btwn 18-00z, whereas 0.30-0.40" falls fm ec cmc. For
the time being hv gone more twd a compromise btwn 12z and 00z with
somewhere btwn 0.30-0.50 inches falling over interior downeast and
the coast drg the day. This translates to roughly a 3-6 inches of
snow falling thru the day into the evening hrs. Question wl be
whether mixing can occur along the immediate coast with srly flow
drawing in warmer temps at the coastal front. This can be ironed out
in more detail as the event draws nearer, tho it does appear some
rain may occur Wed aftn along the coast.

Fortunately this looks to be a progressive system with sfc low only
expected to drop to around 1005mb in the gulf. As the low pulls east
into the maritimes Wed night h5 trof wl swing thru thur morning with
vry little cold advection occurring bhnd it. This may be enuf to
squeeze out vry lgt snow showers thur morning and aftn but wl allow
temps to rebound to nr normal values for maxes.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Fairly zonal flow with weak disturbances rippling thru wl mark the
latter half of the week and into the weekend. Isolated snow showers
wl be possible acrs the north fri. Better chc for snow exists sat
north of katahdin with temps moderating to nr freezing for highs.

After that zonal flow wl return to the CWA until early in the week.

By the end of the pd a strong upr lvl WV wl dive into the upr
midwest and likely induce cyclogenesis heading twd the northeast.

What bearing this wl have on the fa rmns to be seen as temps wl be
moderating under building ridge.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Near term: predominately MVFR tonight at the terminals with
ceilings around 2k ft agl. The clouds will thin out in spots,
but confidence on where and when is very low. A better chance
that conditions will improve toVFR during Tuesday morning.

Short term:VFR on Tuesday. MVFR ifr set in at southern
terminals Tue evening then across the north toward Wed morning.

Restrictions in ifr and possibly lifr during the day wed,
especially at bgr and bhb, in snow. Expect conditions will
improve in the south early thur morning with low CIGS expected
across the north in low stratus into thur afternoon. Ocnl MVFR
cigs expected north of hul through the end of the short term
with light snow showers expected on sat.

Marine
Near term: have used the NAM for sustained wind speed. For
waves: the primary wave system is currently northeasterly wind
wave (around 4 feet 5-6 seconds). The is also a secondary long
period southeasterly swell system present (2-3 feet 10 seconds)
and showing up in spectral at 44027. This wave group continues
to subside. Combined seas are currently running around 5-6 feet
and expected to subside to below 5 feet by late tonight. Have
used the current nwps model to initialize the wave grids. Will
keep current timing for sca.

Short term: expect levels will remain blo SCA levels thru the
day on wed. Serly swell will move in Wed evening ahead of low
pressure. NW winds Wed night may produce wind gusts AOA 25kts
for the outer waters on Thursday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
anz050>052.

Near term... Hewitt


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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.