Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 3:37PM Sunday November 19, 2017 9:05 AM EST (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 191311
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
811 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Strong low pressure will cross northern maine this afternoon and
will be followed by a cold front later today with a secondary
cold front tonight. High pressure will build toward the region
Monday. A warm front will cross the area Tuesday and will be
followed by a cold front Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
8 am update... Temperatures are nudging above freezing across the
north so allowed the winter weather advisory to expire and
removed headlines. Also raised temps through some interior
downeast locations where temps are in the mid 50s already.

Previous discussion... Wintry precip will linger across the
north early this morning, then the focus turns to gusty winds
for this afternoon and evening.

Low pressure is currently lifting up along the saint lawrence river
this morning, placing our region in deep south flow. Warm advection
and associated precipitation shield has spread across the region and
there's a wide range of temperatures at this hour, ranging from 25f
in frenchville to 48f in bangor. Rain is occurring across the south
while cold air at the surface is resulting in a wintry mix in
northern and central areas; houlton and millinocket are both
reporting unknown precipitation - likely sleet - at 32f, while
caribou and frenchville are reporting freezing rain. The warm air
will continue to slowly infiltrate northern maine; the saint john
valley will hold onto below freezing temperatures and freezing rain
and sleet the longest. While expect most locations will be above
freezing with rain by daybreak or shortly thereafter, the usual
sheltered valleys in the north woods may hold onto the wintry precip
a bit longer. Ice, snow, and sleet accumulations will be minor, but
could still result in slippery travel, especially on untreated or
secondary roads. Therefore, will keep the winter weather advisory in
place for now and will monitor trends closely for any needed
adjustments later this morning. Rain will continue through the early
afternoon hours, then it will taper off from south to north as the
low moves to our east, dragging its attendant cold front through the
region. Daytime highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but much
colder air will follow in the front's wake, turning any lingering
showers over the north to snow. However, expect little snow
accumulation as the bulk of the precip will end prior to the coldest

Once the wintry precipitation comes to an end, the concern turns to
gusty winds as the deepening low moves to our north and east and the
cold front crosses the region this afternoon and evening. Strong
south winds will develop out ahead of the front, then quickly switch
to the west behind the front. The question will be how much of the
stronger winds aloft will be able to mix down to the surface just
ahead, with, and behind the front, especially given that there will
be ample cloud cover and frontal passage will occur as the day heads
toward sunset. At this time gusts of 35-40 mph are expected for much
of the area, but gusts of 45 are possible along the coast, with
locally higher gusts. Have therefore issued a wind advisory for the
coast for this afternoon and evening. Winds will abate later tonight
as mixing lessens and the pressure gradient weakens a bit. Much
colder air follows the frontal passage; tonight's lows will be
in the lower 20s north and in the upper 20s downeast.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
A deep surface low along the quebec labrador border Monday will keep
a gusty west wind across the region. The air mass will be cold with
850h temps dropping to around -15c Monday afternoon. Cyclonic flow
aloft will likely lead to a mostly cloudy sky across northern
areas with flurries, and with some downslope a mostly sunny day
across the downeast region. Highs will be about 10 degrees (f)
below average ranging from the mid 20s in the saint john valley
to the low 30s in the greater bangor region. The clouds will
likely break up some Mon night in the north with the sky
becoming partly cloudy, and it should remain mainly clear toward
the coast. The flow turns into the southwest Tuesday as low
pressure passes south of james bay and into western quebec and
high pressure passes well off the middle atlantic coast. A warm
front will lift across the region and 850h temps moderate quite
dramatically by Tue afternoon to above 0c downeast.

Temperatures by Tue afternoon will return to more seasonable
levels with highs in the mid 30s north to the mid to upper 40s

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
On Wednesday an upper trough and cold front cross the region and are
followed by a quasi-zonal flow for thanksgiving day. The latest
00z GFS keeps a southern branch low south and east of the
region Wednesday. The canadian brushes the downeast coast with a
bit of light rain Wed afternoon, and the ECMWF has more
significant QPF on the order of a 1 3" across the far southeast
portion of the CWA that would be rain Wed afternoon, perhaps
ending as a brief period of wet snow Wed evening. The pops were
increased to likely from 18z Wed through 00z Thu for coastal
hancock and central and coastal washington counties. Seasonably
cold for thanksgiving day with more clouds than Sun in the north
and a few flurries and partly sunny downeast. The next system
looks to come in from the west over the weekend with some rain
and snow showers, but at this time it does not look like there
is much likelihood of any phasing with the southern branch, so
significant precipitation at this vantage point does not look
likely. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
Near term: widespread ifr lifr will prevail at all terminals
due to low ceilings and reduced visibility in rain and fog. A
wintry mix of precipitation will be possible at the northern
terminals through 12z sun, then just plain rain is expected. The
rain will wind down and ceilings gradually lift from south to
north after 18z today; expect all sites will beVFR by 06z mon.

Although the steady precipitation will end by 21z, scattered
showers... Rain turning to snow... Are possible through 06z
tonight at the northern sites, and MVFR conditions will be
possible in any precipitation. Gusty south winds will turn to
the west late this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses
the region.

Short term: MVFR ceilings are possible at the northern terminals,
especially from kpqi north Mon into Mon evening with areas of
stratocu.VFR conditions are expected downeast. VFR is expected mon
night into tue. MVFR at times Wed at the northern terminals with a
chance of rain and snow showers. Ifr possible at the downeast
terminals where there will be a better chance of rain.VFR should
return downeast Thursday with MVFR toVFR at the northern

Near term: the gale warning remains in effect through late this
evening. South winds will increase today as strong low pressure
lifts to the north and west of the waters. Gusts up to 40 kt
are expected. Winds will turn to the west this evening after a
cold front crosses the region, but they will remain gusty to 40
kt through midnight. They will subside a bit thereafter as the
pressure gradient lessens, but gusts up to 30 kt will still be
possible. Hence expect the gale warning will need to be
transitioned to a small craft advisory later tonight. Seas will
build to 9-13 ft this afternoon given the onshore flow, then
drop overnight after the cold frontal passage.

Short term: small craft advisories will likely be required Monday into
Monday night with the possibility of a few gale force gusts Monday
afternoon on the coastal waters. SCA conditions will likely
continue into Wed morning with the potential of sub advisory
conditions by late Wed into thu.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Wind advisory from noon today to midnight est tonight for

Marine... Gale warning until 1 am est Monday for anz050>052.

Near term... Hastings
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
aviation... Hastings cb
marine... Hastings cb

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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.