Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madawaska, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:37AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madawaska, ME
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location: 59.51, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 202210
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
610 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Friday.

High pressure will build over the region Saturday into Sunday. Low
pressure will approach on Monday.

Near term through Friday
6:10 pm update... Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
cwa early this evening will diminish with the loss of daytime
heating. The activity has weakened quite a bit as it has moved
out of northwest aroostook county and the central highlands and
pushed east. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based
mainly on the 6 pm observations and the latest radar trends.

Previous discussion...

a few isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across
the northern maine woods as of late this afternoon in response
to a mid level short wave approaching from the west. Further
south, across central and down east maine, a nearly stationary
frontal boundary is expected to be the focus of another area of
convective activity through early this evening. Will continue to
mention gusty winds and small hail through early this evening
with any thunderstorms, otherwise things should be on the wane
after sunset with partly cloudy skies overnight. A bit of patchy
fog is possible late tonight with lows again only expected to
be in the lower 60s across much of the area.

The attention on Friday turns to a cold front approaching from
quebec. Models in good agreement regarding the timing of the
front across the st john valley shortly after sunrise Friday
and then into down east maine by early afternoon. Have went
likely pops for showers across the north on Friday as model
consensus supports measurable rainfall across the area;
however, pops will drop off pretty sharply across down east
maine as the best moisture in association with the front
remains to the north and east. Have also mentioned scattered
thunder across northern and central areas until the front
crosses. Will not mention any enhanced wording at this time,
but think the best chance for any stronger storms would be from
south of houlton through the central highlands and through
interior portions of down east maine, coinciding with the later
frontal passage timing. Further north, the earlier timing of
the front will likely preclude any stronger storms from
developing. Much drier air will begin to advect into the area
behind the front with dew points dropping into the 50s with the
frontal passage. High temperatures on Friday will be warmest
across central and down east, with highs in the mid 80s
expected. Across the north, highs will only range from the mid
to upper 70s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
A cold front will be pushing offshore Friday evening. Any
lingering showers downeast should dissipate early in the
evening. A weak secondary front across the north may produce
some spotty showers over the far northwest early in the evening.

Otherwise, Friday night should be partly cloudy over the area.

High pressure will build down from the northwest on Saturday
bringing a mostly sunny day. The air will be cooler and drier
than recent days, especially across the north. High pressure
over the north will maintain mostly clear and dry weather
Saturday night into Sunday across central and northern areas. A
broad area of low pressure sliding east out of a longwave trough
over the great lakes will approach on Sunday. This will bring
increasing clouds to downeast areas with a chance for some
showers late. Currently there are big model differences with the
nam keeping the whole area dry on Sunday but the GFS bringing
moisture and some rain downeast on Sunday. For now will just
have a slight chance of showers downeast Sunday afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday and track south
of the area Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS digs a strong trough
into the east with secondary low pressure forming off the mid-
atlantic coast Monday night with rain likely across the area Monday
into Tuesday. However, the GFS has been the northern most solution
with this storm. The ECMWF and canadian have favored the storm
system tracking further south and the area remaining mostly dry
early next week. Will likely have to keep at least low chance for
some rain Monday into Tuesday, mostly across the downeast area. The
system should slide east and away during the mid-week period
allowing high pressure to bring a return of dry weather Wednesday
into Thursday.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
Near term: generallyVFR overnight. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible through about 00z, especially kbgr and vcnty. A cold
front will cross the region from north to south on Friday. The
front will be accompanied by showers and sct thunderstorms,
mainly khul north through early afternoon. Any heavier activity
could result in locally brief subVFR conditions, otherwiseVFR
the majority of the time. Winds will become northwest from
north to south with the passage of the front on Friday.

Short term:VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday
night through Sunday. Conditions may lower to MVFR downeast
Sunday night, then lower to MVFR across the remainder of the
area Monday with the possible exception of the far north.

Marine
Near term: the wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels through Friday. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm couldn't be ruled out through early this evening.

Short term: winds and seas are expected to remain below sca
Friday night through Sunday. Winds should remain below SCA on
Monday. Some rain is possible on Monday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Beach hazards statement from Friday morning through Friday
evening for mez029-030.

Marine... None.

Near term... CB duda
short term... Bloomer
long term... Bloomer
aviation... CB duda bloomer
marine... CB duda bloomer


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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.