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FXUS61 KCAR 020400 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1200 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts over the Gulf of Maine overnight. Weak low pressure tracks through the state then over the Gulf of Maine on Thursday. High pressure builds across the region Thursday night into Saturday. A frontal system approaches Saturday night into Sunday, then crosses the region Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Midnight Update: Satellite pictures still show a mainly clear sky across most of the FA. High clouds are beginning to move into western portions of the area, and the clouds will continue to increase from the west overnight. Temperatures have dropped below forecast lows in some of the valleys and have made minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and overnight lows.
Temperatures will level off and even rise a bit as the clouds move in overnight.

Previous Discussion: Weak high pressure at the surface continues to drift south over the outer Gulf of Maine waters tonight. Shortwave energy at 500mb comes racing southeast through Ontario into Quebec overnight. At the surface weak low pressure is associated with it and will track towards Maine through the night into tomorrow.
Tonight, expect a mainly dry night across the area with increasing cloud cover. Given the increasing clouds in most areas the temperatures will remain mild. Expecting lows to bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be light and variable tonight. As RHs increase to 97-100% across Downeast areas into the Southern Central Highlands cannot rule out some patchy fog.

Tomorrow, low pressure will track southeast over Vermont and New Hampshire into the Gulf of Maine near Boston by late day thanks to a nice thermal gradient. Over Eastern & Northern Maine expecting generally a E-SE weak flow. Scattered showers with an area of light stratiform rain will pass through western zones from Moosehead to the Downeast coast. This will be light rain for much of the day with most locations only seeing 0.2-0.4 inch especially in Hancock, Southern Penobscot into Central Piscataquis county. Showers will produce less than 0.1 inch for most other locations with much of Aroostook remaining dry with just clouds. Tomorrow given the clouds, rain and E-SE winds expect highs to be only in the low to mid 50s for much of the Downeast coast, Central Highlands and Moosehead Region. More easterly winds across Aroostook, N. Washington and N. Penobscot will be a downslope off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick. Given the lack of rain in these areas and even some sunny breaks expect these locations to be the warm spots. Here temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s and cannot rule out a few mid 60s in far eastern Aroostook County.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure exits south of the Gulf of Maine early Thursday night, with high pressure building south across the region late. Could still have a slight chance/chance of showers with the exiting low early Thursday night. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies Thursday night. Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday, while an upper level disturbance crosses the region.
Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across the region Friday. High pressure remains across the region Friday night through Saturday with skies remaining partly/mostly cloudy.
Expect near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Saturday night, while an occluded front slowly approaches from the west. Expect increasing clouds Saturday night. The occluded front begins to slowly cross the region Sunday, though the exact timing of the front is still uncertain due to exiting high pressure across the Maritimes. Shower chances will increase, from west to east, mostly later Sunday into Sunday night in advance of the occluded front. Showers will persist with the front early Monday, then begin to diminish. Surface high pressure will build across the region Monday night into Tuesday night, with an upper level disturbance possibly clipping northern areas Tuesday. Generally expect decreasing clouds Monday night, with partly cloudy skies Tuesday/Tuesday night. Low pressure approaching from the west could bring a chance of rain or showers later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures Sunday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across the north overnight through Thursday, with mostly clear skies overnight giving way to OVC just above VFR thresholds. For Downeast terminals, patchy fog developing overnight could lead to conditions quickly falling to MVFR or IFR overnight, though confidence remains too low (20%) in any IFR chances from fog to include decrease in vis in the TAFs. Low cigs will likely last through the day on Thursday as well with the next system moving through and bringing light rain to the Downeast region. Winds light and variable overnight becoming E to SE at 5 to 10 kts on Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Thursday night...Across northern areas VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of showers early. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers early then VFR late. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Occasional MVFR possible early north. Otherwise, VFR.
North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday.
Southeast/south winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance/chance of showers. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with showers. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers early, then VFR/MVFR.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow evening. Seas generally 1ft or less tonight and 1-2ft tomorrow.
Winds generally less than 15kt. Patchy fog may reduce vsby late tonight. Light rain may reduce vsby at times tomorrow into the late afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. A chance of showers Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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