Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday September 23, 2018 5:01 AM AKDT (13:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231221
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
421 am akdt Sun sep 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low that once spun north of nunavak island
has moved inland over western mainland alaska. A surface low is
beginning to take shape ahead of the base of a long-wave trough
over the western aleutians. The low level jet is skirting the
southern edge of the aleutians with wind speeds approaching 110
mb at 500 mb. This jet is supporting the progression of an
occluded front in the gulf of alaska which is beginning to shift
into the southern gulf. Southwesterly flow dominates southcentral
and the alaska peninsula behind the front. A mixing down of the
higher winds aloft is creating gusty conditions throughout the
anchorage area and cook inlet while areas in the turnagain arm and
mat-su valleys have remained fairly calm. As the front recedes
into the southern gulf, the rain is beginning to lighten up with
several areas of showers remaining along the north gulf coast and
northern susitna valley. Radar depicts the heaviest rain to be
south of middleton island as well as in the lower kuskokwim delta
due to the migration of the low inland.

Model discussion
Models are in generally good agreement in regards through the
first 24 hours with the low in the eastern bering moving inland
this morning. They also display consistency in regards to a short
wave passing through the northern gulf this afternoon. They
become a little less organized in regard to a second low forming
south of cold bay tonight. The ec is progressing slightly quicker
towards bristol bay tomorrow while the NAM and GFS are comparable
in their location. By 36 hours, there is little organization
between the models but the location of the low is relatively the
same. The NAM was selected as the model of choice. As this low
moves inland, the associated front moves into the northern gulf of
alaska and the models are handling that well with increasing
winds throughout southcentral.

Aviation
Panc... Generally,VFR conditions will persist today through
early Monday morning. Gusty southeast winds will continue through
the day today. Winds are expected to briefly turn northerly after
midnight in advance of a front. Strong southerly winds will
return to the airport complex by mid-morning Monday following the
frontal passage. Llws is possible Monday morning ahead of the
front as the surface winds turn northerly while the southeasterly
turnagain arm winds continue aloft. Periods of light rain will
also move over the airport complex beginning Monday morning.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today
through Monday night)...

broad instability combined with upslope flow will continue to
produce some showers along and near south to west facing mountain
slopes. Otherwise, expect a dry day across southcentral with some
areas of sunshine. All eyes will then shift to a developing low
over the north pacific, which will track northward across southwest
alaska tonight through Monday, with a strong frontal system crossing
the gulf and southcentral. This will produce widespread rain and
wind for most of the region. With increasing confidence in the
track and strength of this storm system, have trended stronger
with the wind forecast, particularly on the back side of the
system. As the low barrels northward across the kuskokwim valley
Monday and its associated frontal system pushes inland across
southcentral, cold air advection will kick in and combine with
pressure rises to produce widespread and gusty southerly winds.

Some of the strongest winds will be up cook inlet and the western
kenai coastline. Deep southwest flow will keep showers going along
the southwest facing slopes once again. The air mass looks like
it will be slightly colder than the one in place now, so expect
snow levels could drop as low as 4000 feet Monday night.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Low pressure across the southwest continues to diminish today with
south to west flow and rain showers diminishing during the
afternoon. The next front races up from the north pacific this
evening pushing a front across the alaska peninsula. This front
spreads rain north to the kuskokwim valley and delta by Monday
morning with the associated low lifting north to the central
interior Monday night. Winds along the front increase out of the
east as boundary moves through; the strongest winds are expected
across the alaska peninsula and along the aleutian range. Colder
air advects inland along the base of this second trough bringing
seasonally cool weather back across the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Low pressure races north toward the alaska peninsula this morning
bringing a quick change in wind speeds and directions as it
crosses inland from bristol bay tonight. This system lifts across
the interior late Monday, allowing a ridge to build across the
bering from the west through Tuesday. This relatively quiet
pattern will be brief as the next two systems push active weather
to the western bering and alaska peninsula Tuesday night.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Tuesday night through
Saturday)...

the models have come into much better agreement for the first few
days of the long-term forecast as compared to yesterday. An area
of high pressure, centered southwest of adak, will extend
northeastward into southern alaska to start out the forecast
Tuesday night. The center of the high will quickly shift across
southwest alaska by Wednesday morning. Thus, nearly ideal
conditions for radiational cooling will be in place (clear skies,
light winds), with the exception of any high cloudiness
associated with a building 110 kt jet in the upper levels moving
over southern mainland alaska. As such, many inland areas have
their first real chance this fall of seeing their first freeze
Wednesday morning. As the average date of the first freeze in
anchorage is tomorrow, september 23rd, the growing season is
already on borrowed time. The high pressure system will slowly
lift to the north on Wednesday, but most of the area should
continue to enjoy another beautiful fall day. Despite the expected
continuation of mainly clear skies, warming temperatures in the
mid-levels should reduce the frost threat Wednesday night, though
by no means can it be ruled out.

An area of low pressure in the models has been struggling in
recent days as to what it's going to do may be finally showing its
hand this afternoon. For fans of sunny, dry, fall weather, you'll
be happy about the trend. Previously, the models had brought the
associated front all the way to the gulf coast and inland, with
rain associated with the low itself overspreading southwest alaska
by Wednesday afternoon. Now, the models have shifted south and
west, strengthening the high pressure over the interior. As a
result, the front now looks to struggle even making it to kodiak
Wednesday afternoon, and the center of the low looks to track west
of the pribilofs on Thursday, with doubt even the easternmost
fringe of the precipitation affects the bering coast. Therefore,
high pressure and increasingly amplified upper level ridging
suggest yet another run of gorgeous, dry weather with above
average afternoon highs and warming overnight lows going right
into the weekend for southcentral. The models try to bring periods
of rain to the coast of southwest alaska Friday and Saturday, but
there is a lot of uncertainty in those details. September will
certainly go down in the record books as an unusually warm and dry
month for all of southern alaska.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... 131 132 138 139 140 141 150 155 165 352.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra tm
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi31 min Calm G 1.9 51°F 1008.6 hPa41°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi31 min SSW 4.1 G 6 52°F 1008.3 hPa44°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 99 mi31 min WSW 11 G 12 52°F 1008.5 hPa44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------SW8--SW12--SW12--SW12--SW13--SW9
1 day ago------------------------------NE7--Calm--Calm--E6--NE6
2 days ago--------------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm--SW6--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.