Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 10:19 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM   Moonset 5:17 PM

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PKZ730 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 248 Am Akdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tonight - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Mon - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Mon night - SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Tue - E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.Wed - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

FXAK68 PAFC 051325 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 525 AM AKDT Sun May 5 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large low has transited from the eastern Bering into the central GUlf in the last 24 hrs. Early morning water vapor imagery shows several shortwave troughs rotating around the tightly wound parent low. The eastern most shortwave is already lifting towards the northern Gulf coast this morning with Middleton Island radar showing more enhanced reflectivity moving westward along the coast towards Prince William Sound. The the first half of today, much of the precipitation will remain across the northern Gulf coastal areas, Prince William Sound, and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. As the upper low slowly lifts northwards today, several more shortwaves will rotate around the periphery and up into the the southern Yukon and Copper River Basin.

Ahead of this system, shortwave ridging extending westward across interior Southcentral Alaska will help to funnel mid-level moisture and warmer temperatures northward into the Copper River Basin today.
With several of these shortwaves lifting north then back west as an easterly waves and marginal instability building today, weak forcing should be more than ample to spark some convective showers along the foothills of the Wrangells and Alaska Range by this afternoon/evening. Models have trended towards a more widespread area of showers developing over the northern Copper Basin and translating westwards toward the Mat-Su Valley through Monday morning. Both hi-res and med-range models are showing a deformation band dipping down towards the Anchorage Bowl and the northwest Kenai Peninsula; however, there are some hints that the heavier showers may set-up just west of Anchorage over the northern Cook Inlet and extending up into the Susitna Valley.

By Monday evening the low over the northern Gulf will begin to move inland as more of an open wave, and besides some lingering showers over the Susitna Valley and near-coastal areas of the Gulf, most of Southcentral will see limited shower activity and mainly diurnally driven.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

An occluded low continues moving eastward in the western Gulf of Alaska this morning. Conditions will remain showery over the southwestern mainland most of today and becoming more confined to the higher terrain as the day progresses; especially near the Western Alaska Range and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Low stratus, mist, and areas of fog will also linger over the Kuskokwim Delta, and portions of Bristol Bay, especially around King Salmon and the Western Capes this morning. Later today, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out for areas around the Western Alaska Range and eastern portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley due to day-time heating and a little bit of instability. The caveat to this chance would be if there is too much cloud cover this morning that does not break up enough.

Northerly flow then ensues on the backside of the Gulf low as cold air works in from the Bering Strait and Russia over the Bering Sea for tonight and Monday. This colder air will work eastward off of the Bering and into portions of the southwestern mainland Monday morning where high temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with those coldest temperatures being along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island. The Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will also see cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 30s for Monday.
Interior locations of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley see high temperatures in the 40s. Further to the west, a weak North Pacific low will send its front to the western Bering and western Aleutians Sunday afternoon through Monday with mostly light rain expected. This system weakens and exits further south into the North Pacific Monday evening.

Meanwhile, the strongest push of cold air through the Bering Sea will be Monday into Tuesday morning. Freezing spray looks to be likely through a good portion of the eastern Bering Sea zones and Bering Sea side of the AKPEN for Monday. There could also be pockets of Heavy Freezing Spray east of Saint Matthew Island and west of Nunivak Island. Along with the cold air advection for Monday, there will be snow showers likely for the Bering side of the AKPEN and eastern Aleutians through Tuesday. As the new Bering Sea upper-level low becomes more established Tuesday evening, shortwaves will rotate around it and deliver the western and central Aleutians a round of snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term begins on Wednesday with a broad trough stretching from the western Aleutians/Bering across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. A closed upper-level low is located over the Bering with weak low pressure at the surface, spreading light precipitation across the region. A surface low over the northeastern Gulf and an attendant upper shortwave quickly move inland and are followed by another low/shortwave. Thus, precipitation along the Gulf coast will persist into the weekend, and agreement is very good amongst the models for above average rainfall from Wednesday through Friday for the Southcentral coast.
The chance for heaviest precipitation along the coast is expected on Thursday, with lesser amounts spreading inland through Friday.

Out west, a system from the Kamchatka Peninsula approaches the western Aleutians late Wednesday into early Thursday. Model agreement begins to diverge around this same timeframe. The GFS and EC deterministic solutions drop the system south into the North Pacific on Friday while the Canadian NH keeps the system moving east across the Bering and Aleutians, which would bring more active weather to the region. An upper-level ridge attempts to build through the weekend across portions of the Bering and Aleutians, and each model solution shows differences in the way the ridge interacts with the surrounding lows/troughs.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Chance for showers to move over the terminal beginning this afternoon and persisting through tonight. Gusty winds out of the south to pick back up late this evening.

Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

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