Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Friday June 23, 2017 12:54 PM AKDT (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:22AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ185 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 400 Am Akdt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory tonight and Saturday...
Today..S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Mon..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231253
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
453 am akdt Fri jun 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The semi-blocked pattern continues this morning as the upper level
dirty ridge slides toward the canadian yukon. A couple shortwave
troughs in the northern stream are facilitating this move as the
approach the southwestern mainland. The ridge is also getting
squeezed from the south as another shortwave rolls up on the east
side of a long wave trough. General high pressure sits over most
of the mainland at the surface with light winds. Convection over
the copper river basin and canadian yukon keeps plentiful cloud
cover under the ridge, while up-inlet flow has brought low-level
clouds and even a little drizzle from kenai northward up into the
susitna valley.

Model discussion
The general synoptics of the upper pattern are well agreed upon.

However the evolution of the upper trough over the gulf, and the
incoming shortwave have introduced some differences among
guidance. The ooz and 06z runs have come into better agreement
with this feature but it will have big ramifications on convection
in the copper river basin on Saturday.

Panc... Marine layer stratus will linger around the cook inlet
region and slowly lift through the day. There is a chance for
lower ifr conditions to exist this morning, but they should be
transient and not widespread.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
With the upper level ridge beginning to retreat to the east and a
low moving northward toward the gulf of alaska, the pattern is
beginning to slowly change. This should mean that today will be
the last for the persistent low stratus in the upper cook inlet
region with a possibility of marked improvement as early as this
evening. This will allow temperatures to rise back toward normal
for Saturday and above normal for Sunday when there will be a
break between systems.

There remains the possibility for a few thunderstorms over the
talkeetna mountains and into the copper river basin this afternoon
and evening as well as tomorrow, but there should not be anything

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Fri and sat)...

the convergence zone hung up along the kuskokwim mountains lived
up to its billing. Light rain with some embedded convection was
apparent across the area through the night. It has also seemed to
cause just enough mixing to keep the dense fog from forming in the
delta and bristol bay as it did Thu morning. We are still
expecting some patchy fog marine stratus to move inland along the
coast, but it should not be nearly as dense as yesterday.

That boundary will not move much through the day, and in fact, it
will help to serve to focus some more isolated thunderstorms in
the region late this afternoon through the evening. Further to the
east, weak ridging will give way to more influence from a strong
low in the gulf of ak later today into sat. But first, another
round of isolated thunderstorms are expected along the northern
portion of the ak range this afternoon-evening. These storms
should move to the west and could work in tandem with the aforementioned
boundary to make for a bit more widespread convection over the
lower kuskokwim valley.

As the low in the gulf works northward into sat, it will allow
flow to switch to more northeasterly across bristol bay and the
lower kuskokwim valley. This will result in warming temperatures
with more sunshine (after the patchy fog burns off) for these
areas. However, with the thermal trough still present, another
round of thunderstorms along the terrain is expected. Meanwhile,
across the delta, onshore flow will persist and could lead to
another morning of marine stratus and fog, especially along the
coast. While skies should clear during the day with ridging
building in, temperatures will remain quite a bit cooler than the
rest of the SW mainland.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Fri and

a broad area of low pressure will dominate the bering as it pushes
weak high pressure to the east into the weekend. High pressure is
trying to hold on over the eastern bering for the next 48 hours.

Under it, there is fairly widespread marine stratus patchy fog
with very light winds. But the big weather maker will be the low
currently near shemya. This low will hold right on the northern
edge of the sub-tropical jet for the next several days. So as
pieces of energy ebb and flow along the jet axis, the low will
constantly undergo modifications to strength and location. But
overall, it will drift to the east. As it does so, it will bring
steady rain and sustained small craft winds to the central
aleutians. Conditions will be a bit more showery and gusty for the
far western aleutians as some cool air starts to wrap in behind it
by late Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An amplifying longwave pattern looks to bring and end to the period
of nice weather over much of southern alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, the upper level trough over the bering sea will dig
southward and begin tapping into some moist subtropical air while
advecting that air northward into the gulf of alaska. This looks to
set up a rather wet period for much of southern alaska Tuesday
through Friday of next week as a series of systems move into the
gulf of alaska and north toward the gulf coast. There is pretty
remarkable model agreement with this change in weather pattern so
confidence continues to rise. However, it is to be expected that
there could be some breaks in the rain and clouds but overall, wet
and cloudy will be the theme for much of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mo
long term... Mmc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi54 min SE 7 G 8.9 50°F 1029.2 hPa (-0.6)45°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi54 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 1028.3 hPa (-0.3)49°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 99 mi54 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 1028.4 hPa (-0.5)42°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Alsworth, Port Alsworth Airport, AK56 mi2.1 hrsN 030.00 miOvercast54°F44°F72%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------------------------------Calm--Calm--Calm
1 day ago--SW6--SW10--SW14--------------------------Calm--Calm----
2 days ago--SW7--Calm--Calm--W12----------------------Calm--Calm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Fri -- 02:12 AM AKDT     16.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:22 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:51 AM AKDT     -3.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 PM AKDT     15.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 PM AKDT     New Moon
Fri -- 09:00 PM AKDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Oil Bay
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Fri -- 03:15 AM AKDT     16.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM AKDT     -3.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:19 PM AKDT     14.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 PM AKDT     New Moon
Fri -- 10:00 PM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:51 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.