Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:39PM Friday April 20, 2018 11:25 PM AKDT (07:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 12:42AM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ185 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 329 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 20 2018
.small craft advisory through Saturday night...
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Sun night..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Mon..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
Tue..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 210016
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
416 pm akdt Fri apr 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A long wave upper trough and a broad area of surface low pressure
with multiple low centers over southern alaska are the main
weather features today. Low pressure across the cook inlet to mat-
su corridor and a weakening low over the northern gulf are
producing widespread cloudiness and showers. Showers are mainly
rain, with a rain-snow mix at higher elevations and then mostly
snow over the northern susitna valley. A pinch in the pressure
gradient across southcentral has given rise to brisk southerly
winds across the copper river basin and gusty gap induced flows
across turnagain arm. Out west, cloudy conditions area fairly
widespread. Rain and snow showers are evident over the southwest
mainland, mainly in the bristol bay zone. Generally mostly cloudy
conditions with rain showers prevail over the bering sea and
aleutians. Gusty easterly winds, associated with a eastward
moving low and front south of the aleutian chain, were evident
across the central aleutians.

Model discussion
Short term model solutions through Sunday afternoon are reasonable
and in good synoptic agreement.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southerly winds across
the airport complex will diminish during the early morning hours
Saturday, then increase again Saturday afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A band of showers has formed over portions of the area this
afternoon. This band is forecast to persist until the loss of
solar heating results in its weakening. Scattered showers persist
over anchorage and the matanuska valley, and are likely to
continue into the evening. Meanwhile, further north, the threat of
accumulating snow persists through broad pass. Once the Sun goes
down that area should pick up several inches of additional
accumulation, as upsloping helps squeeze out additional moisture
from the atmosphere. During the day Saturday, the chance for a few
hit-and-miss showers returns to the cook inlet region as an upper
level wave of moisture locally enhances shower development. Those
showers too will be short-lived, and since it too will occur with
daytime heating, the precipitation should largely fall as plain
rain. Organized band development like what is occurring right now
is not expected again Saturday.

On Saturday afternoon, a low centered south of sand point will
swing a front into the southern gulf, with precipitation breaking
out in kodiak Saturday evening. The front will push northward
Saturday night, reaching the northern gulf on Sunday. The front
and its associated cloud cover will reduce the atmospheric
instability, which should return the region to a more typical
precipitation pattern, with heavy precipitation occurring at the
coast, and downsloping keeping anchorage and the western kenai
peninsula dry. The front will also invigorate a barrier jet along
the north gulf coast as it presses northward, resulting in gale
force winds all along the gulf coast for a time, with higher
gusts. The easterly flow will also enhance the turnagain arm and
knik river valley winds through Sunday. A triple-point low forms
over the southwestern gulf Sunday evening resulting in more
precipitation on easterly flow through the overnight for kodiak
and the north gulf coast.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An arctic trough is digging south over the region this afternoon
and is supporting the development of shower activity over the
alaska peninsula and north into inland bristol bay. This will
expand overnight into more organized rain snow, especially over
the lower kuskokwim delta where some minor snow accumulations will
occur. The parent upper low will retrograde into the bering sea
on Saturday with an increase in southeast flow aloft and a switch
to more sporadic rain showers.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A low skirting the western central aleutians will move east then
north into eastern bristol bay Saturday night and Sunday. Broad
cyclonic flow and a mix of rain snow showers will encompass the
eastern half of the bering (including the pribs) before a more
consolidated low center strengthens over the eastern bering on
Sunday. An elongated gale force front will reach the western
bering on Sunday and shift east into Monday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A progressive pattern will remain steadfast over the region
through the end of next week, yielding widespread precipitation
and gusty conditions across much of the bering aleutians and
southern mainland. Models are showing a series of lows and
associated fronts tracking through the bering and north pacific
throughout the period, with the fronts eventually pushing into
the gulf region as the low centers approach the southwest coast.

The areas west of the chugach and alaska aleutian ranges are
still expected to see more of a downsloped-regime under
southeasterly winds, with some small breaks in the wind
periodically which will allow some precipitation to spill over.

However, by Thursday when the flow changes more to the SW over the
cook inlet region, we should see more precipitation making it
into the area. Along the gulf coast, steadier precipitation is
expected with each frontal passage, along with gusty winds along
the northern gulf and through favored channeled terrain.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 130 131 138 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Pepe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi26 min S 6 G 7 38°F 1001.2 hPa (+1.1)38°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi26 min SSE 8 G 13 42°F 1000.7 hPa (+1.2)35°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm------SW10
1 day ago--------------------------NE10--NE8--NE7--E8--NE8--SW7
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Sat -- 12:55 AM AKDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM AKDT     14.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:52 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:37 PM AKDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM AKDT     12.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.83.86.29.111.813.614.213.3117.84.51.6-0.2-0.513.56.49.111.312.311.910.58.4

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Oil Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:55 AM AKDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM AKDT     13.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:50 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:37 PM AKDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 PM AKDT     11.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.53.52.93.868.711.313.113.712.910.77.64.31.5-0.3-0.50.93.368.710.811.811.510.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.