Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Pedro Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:07AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 3:12 AM AKDT (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 7:39PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ185 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 332 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 23 2017
.storm warning Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Tonight..E of saint matthew island, E wind 15 kt. W of saint matthew island, E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..E of saint matthew island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. W of saint matthew island, E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..E wind 45 kt E of saint matthew island... NE 55 kt W of saint matthew island. Seas 26 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Wed..NE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
Wed night..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
Thu..N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Fri..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedro Bay, AK
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location: 59.62, -153.58     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240337
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
522 pm akdt Mon oct 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
An elongated upper level low centered along the kuskokwim delta
has several short waves propagating about its center. One wave is
currently moving north across the kenai with another downstream
approximately 300 miles south of kodiak island. Another low is
wrapping along the backside of this system diving south along the
eastern bering. Ridging is separating this parent low from
another parent system spinning along the kamchatka peninsula.

At the surface, rain and snow is developing along a weak frontal
boundary swinging north along the kenai. A few isolated
thunderstorms developed along this front as is pushed north across
the peninsula. This front produced a significant amount of snow as
it moved along the aleutian range with 9" measured at iliamna
airport. Offshore flow continues across southcentral with
southeasterly flow returning along the eastern kenai. To the west,
extratropical system lan is making its transition to the bering
with heavy rain and gusty southeasterly flow gusting up to 60 mph
at shemya this afternoon.

Model discussion
Models are generally in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern, however they are struggling with handling the important
weak dynamic features for evolving the precipitation forecast
across southcentral heading into mid week. A blend was used from
the operational models to update the afternoon package.

Panc... A brief period of MVFR conditions is expected this evening
as the front along the kenai moves north with snow along the
boundary. Another front moves through on Tuesday, however kept low
endVFR conditions at the end of the TAF package as the timing of
this next system remains uncertain.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper-level wave surface trough is progressing northeastward
up cook inlet and the kenai peninsula this afternoon. The compact
system will weaken as it moves to anchorage this evening,
spreading some light snowfall over the anchorage and mat- su
valleys area. Expect a quick shot of snow this evening that will
taper off overnight.

Attention then turns to the next upper-wave moving into kodiak
island tonight. This feature will bring snow to the kenai
peninsula by early Tuesday morning, moving north to the anchorage
area late Tuesday morning early afternoon. At this point, there
is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much snow will make it
into anchorage and the matanuska valley Tuesday. Recent model
runs have shifted the track of the surface low further west,
taking the low inland over the kenai peninsula or tracking it
northeastward up cook inlet. This westward shift results in
stronger southeasterly flow over the chugach mountains and
turnagain arm, which would favor more of a downslope scenario over
anchorage. The amount of snow that lower elevations of anchorage
and the matanuska valley will see Tuesday is highly dependent on
the timing and magnitude of these southeasterly winds. With the
trend towards stronger southeasterly flow, keeping snowfall
accumulations fairly low in lower elevations.

The active pattern continues as a gale force front moves into the
southwest gulf Tuesday night, then pushes to the central gulf and
northern gulf coast by Wednesday afternoon. Behind this front,
deep southwesterly flow will transport a significantly
warmer moister airmass northeastward. Expect snowfall to
transition to rain Wednesday morning over the bulk of
southcentral, with high temperatures approaching the low 40s by
Wednesday afternoon.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weak upper level low to the north of SW ak will continue to pump
moisture into the area leading to scattered snow showers along
the bristol bay coast tonight. Accumulations will be no more than
a few inches in most locations due to the spotty nature of the
precipitation. Showers will gradually taper off late Tuesday
morning before the next system moves in. A strong warm front
associated with a deep low out in the bering will push ashore by
early Tuesday evening brining copious amounts of moisture and much
warmer air. Initially, precipitation will fall as snow but will
quickly transition to rain along the coast before midnight. Warmer
air will take a bit longer to reach inland locations leading to a
more prolonged period of snowfall before changing over to rain by
early Wednesday morning. Depending on the speed of the warm air
moving in, there could be some noticeable snowfall accumulations
along the upper kuskokwim river valley Tuesday night.

Precipitation should taper off by Wednesday afternoon though
persistent southerly flow behind the front will keep temperatures
much warmer than what was seen across the area last week.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A very active weather pattern is in store for the bering and
aleutians over the next couple of days. The remains of tropical
cyclone lan over the kamchatka peninsula have combined with a
strong north pacific jet to form the strongest low of season so
far in the bering, with models deepening the central pressure to
935 mb as it approaches the western bering. Winds are already
gusting to hurricane force at shemya and these winds are expected
to spread east across the aleutians tonight and tomorrow. Though
the low will be weakening as it traverses east, strong southerly
winds associated with the warm front out ahead of the low will be
channeled through terrain gaps, keeping the potential for
hurricane force gusts along the northern side of the eastern
aleutians and akpen. Thus, high wind warnings have been issued for
the western aleutians through tomorrow morning and for the
eastern aleutians akpen tomorrow morning through the evening.

Winds will remain strong on the backside of the low as the system
progresses east, though not as strong as with the warm frontal
passage. Colder air aloft will keep the threat for rain snow
showers over much of the bering through Wednesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The extended forecast begins Wednesday evening with the same
longwave pattern in place. A cold upper trough sits over the bering
sea with upper ridging to the east toward the panhandle.

Between these two features lies a strong jet stream with a
tropical connection, currently preciptable water is near 2.3
inches in the northwest pacific but will moderate as it moves east
and north.

As the associated front moves into the north gulf coast late
Wednesday into Thursday, the surface pressure gradient will
respond, making for potentially strong winds through portage
valley turnagain arm and the upper elevations of the chugach.

Warmer conditions will accompany the system as strong cross-
barrier flow bring downslope conditions to the area. However, the
strong moisture tap could lead to some rain making it through the
dry low-levels. Strong winds will remain a threat through

Heading into the long-term, a sub-tropical system pushes up into
the gulf, returning warmer temperatures and rain to much of the
area on Friday. Into the weekend and beyond... Guidance really
struggles with the evolution of these sub-tropical waves phasing
into the longwave trough. Individual systems are not timed well
or agreed upon in the surface pressure fields. Uncertainty remains
high, but the active and warmer pattern will continue.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning 181 185 187 191.

High wind watch 195.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kh
southcentral alaska... Rd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Mtl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 21 mi42 min S 8 G 9.9 37°F 1013.2 hPa26°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 86 mi42 min SE 8 G 11 40°F 1012.7 hPa32°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from ALJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------NE8------------------------------NE9--NE8--SW7
1 day ago----------------------------------------------NE7
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Tue -- 06:10 AM AKDT     13.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM AKDT     3.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:25 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 PM AKDT     13.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Oil Bay
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Tue -- 12:44 AM AKDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM AKDT     13.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM AKDT     4.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:49 PM AKDT     13.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.