Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lowell Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:36AMSunset 11:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 9:45 PM AKDT (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 405 Pm Akdt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas S of caines head. Widespread rain showers.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Mon night..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue and Tue night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowell Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -149.59     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 290027
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
427 pm akdt Sun may 28 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low centered just west of kodiak island
moving to the north. A negatively tilted associated surface front
with plenty of moisture is situated over the gulf and pushing
into south central alaska. Most of the rain for this system is
falling along the coastal mountains, with most inland areas being
"down-sloped" and thus fairly dry. There is a large vertically
stacked low over the western bering sea, centered just north of
the western aleutians. There is a ridge of high pressure between
these two lows over the eastern bering sea. There is a rather
strong and large ridge over northwest canada extending southward.

Model discussion
The numerical models are still struggling a bit with the pattern
over the gulf and mainland alaska. There is decent agreement on
the surface pressure pattern, but there are still some decent
differences in the timing and amounts of precipitation expected in
the next 24 hours. A middle ground (a "poor mans ensemble")
approach was used to handle the uncertainty.

Panc...VFR conditions are expected, although there is a small
chance of some MVFR conditions in showers Monday morning through
Monday afternoon. Some brief gusty south winds are expected late
this afternoon, then winds should be fairly light.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The regional weather continues to remain dominated by the
amplified and slow moving upper level pattern. The closed low
near kodiak island continues to keep broad south-southeast flow
aloft and extensive coastal precipitation. Rather efficient
downslope drying is keeping most inland locations dry, but rather
cloudy and continued well below average. The warm front has moved
onshore and will quickly weaken, allowing for the pressure
gradient along the coast to relax. Gusty southeast winds along the
coast and down turnagain arm and knik arm will quickly weaken
overnight as the parent trough begins to move up cook inlet. While
low level forcing for ascent is rather weak, there should be
enough lift aloft along the leading edge of the shortwave trough
to support light rain showers along the kenai peninsula and
northward into anchorage and the susitna valley Monday morning
into the afternoon. Afternoon heating in the susitna valley and
along the alaska range talkeetna mountains should be sufficient to
support isolated thunderstorms, as well.

Monday night, expect drying conditions as the upper low moves
northeast into the interior of alaska, leaving clearing skies and
rather cool overnight temperatures. Tuesday looks to be the first
rather widespread dry day (with the exception of scattered showers
along the mountains surrounding the copper basin) with a slow
warming trend expected heading into mid week.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level low near kodiak island will continue to slowly
track north through southwest alaska helping to produce isolated
thunderstorms over southwest alaska this afternoon evening and
Monday afternoon evening. As the low pushes off to the north,
southwest alaska will dry out Monday night into Tuesday as weak
ridging moves in.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Ridging over the central bering will slowly track east making it
over the mainland Monday night. This ridging will stall the
western bering low from progressing to the east with its front
only making it to the eastern aleutians on Tuesday. The low will
keep rain over the western and central aleutians into next week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long range forecast beginning Tuesday night through Thursday
is expected to trend toward dry conditions inland with periodic
breaks in the clouds as a transitional ridge pattern builds behind
the exiting upper low. Meanwhile, a weakly organized low over the
southern bering tracks along the aleutians to the alaska
peninsula bringing light rain as it moves through. Northerly flow
along the bering on the backside of this low cools the air mass in
its wake.

At the end of the week, there is high uncertainty in how models
evolve the low pressure system moving near the alaska peninsula.

This is largely due to the models currently struggling with how
to handle energy that races ahead of the low center, rounding the
base of the trough near the eastern gulf. Models typically
struggle with how fast they can break down a ridge, which in this
case, will be stretched along and east to west axis from the yukon
territory to southcentral. The inherited forecast was updated
with wpcs ensemble blend approach with a higher percentage of the
ecmwf used mid week as it had better consistency during the
latest runs.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Kh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 7 mi46 min ENE 21 G 23 47°F 1011 hPa (-0.8)42°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 26 mi46 min 46°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 87 mi56 min ESE 14 G 16 44°F 44°F6 ft1011.8 hPa (-0.5)43°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK25 mi53 minS 310.00 miLight Rain42°F39°F92%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6CalmS6S6E3CalmN4NW4N3N3CalmNE3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmS3S3S4SE4S6S4S3
1 day agoNE3N3CalmN4SE4NW6CalmNW4N4NW4E3CalmS54SE6SE4SE5SE3S5S5S4S5S7S7
2 days agoN4N3N6W4N4N6NW5N3N4N6N33S4S10S14S5S9S7S12S14S15SW11SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Agnes Cove, Aialik Peninsula, Alaska
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Agnes Cove
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Mon -- 01:44 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:10 AM AKDT     11.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:40 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:55 AM AKDT     -2.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM AKDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:08 PM AKDT     2.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Sill, Aialik Bay, Alaska
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Aialik Sill
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Mon -- 01:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:11 AM AKDT     11.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:40 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:55 AM AKDT     -2.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM AKDT     9.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:08 PM AKDT     2.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.