Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 4:18 AM   Moonset 9:38 PM

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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.Thu - N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.Fri - N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 071330 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 530 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A few showers remain this morning across far western Cook Inlet and nearby Alaska Range. Ongoing showers also noted across the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound in the vicinity of a weakening low pressure system. Showers have also begun again for Kodiak Island as the next system lifts up into the Gulf. Elsewhere across Southcentral, much of the cloud cover has moved out resulting in clearing skies for the western Kenai north into the Mat-Su Valley, and the Copper River Basin. With the recent rainfall across much of this area, and generally light winds...some areas may see some patchy fog develop this morning.

The weather should remain fairly quiet today with just some diurnally driven showers developing along the higher terrain and increasing precipitation chances for the Gulf Coastal zones as the next system advances.

The low moving up out of the north Pacific will trek towards the north-central Gulf by Wednesday morning and cold air working in behind the system. The bulk of the precipitation still looks to push towards Southeast Alaska at the start, but the low looks to retrograde back to the west before moving inland near Prince William Sound. As such, coastal areas should see precipitation increase Wednesday as the low moves back west. There are some model discrepancies as to how far west the surface low moves, which will impact rainfall amounts for the western Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai. Strong winds will also accompany the low with gales likely to the north of the the surface low in the northern Gulf coastal waters.

Beyond Wednesday remains a bit nebulous, as the bulk of the med and long-range model guidance has picked up on a polar low developing near the Bering Strait then rapidly translating across the Bering before curving slightly north towards the AKPen. If this polar low materializes, we would see the mid to late week system moving up out of the northern Pacific shunted eastwards into the eastern Gulf taking the much of the precipitation with it...keeping Southcentral on the cooler and somewhat drier side.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled conditions with areas of mixed rain/snow will continue across much of interior Southwest Alaska through midweek as a stalled surface boundary remains draped from near King Salmon to north of Aniak. These areas of showers will be enhanced both Tuesday morning and again Wednesday as a series of weak upper- level waves moves across the region from the west. These waves are moving out ahead of the main upper-level, longwave trough situated over the eastern half of the Bering.

A potent shortwave trough will move south from the Bering Strait Tuesday morning to the Pribilof Islands by Wednesday morning. This feature will deepen into an upper-level low. This, combined with cold, dense air near the surface advecting from the Gulf of Anadyr over the northern Bering, will result in the development of compact polar low. While guidance continues to struggle with the exact timing and track of this feature, it will most likely deepen rapidly as it moves from west of Saint Matthew Island south toward the Saint Paul Island.

A core of gale-force winds and storm-force gusts are likely along the western flank of the low, with gales persisting along the way to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as late as Thursday morning. A core of snow will also accompany this system. Again, the exact setup remains uncertain, but a track over or very near the Pribilofs could bring at least some measurable snow along with gusty winds.

This low reaches Bristol Bay for Thursday with showers for the AKPen and Bristol Bay coast. Another deep low moving east from the Kamchatka Peninsula will push a gale-force front across the western Aleutians for Wednesday and the central Aleutians for Thursday.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The longterm forecast begins on Friday with broad troughing continuing to stretch from the western Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska, with multiple upper-level shortwaves embedded within the flow. At the surface, a system weakens over Southcentral on Friday while an expansive low encompasses much of the Bering and the Aleutians. This low is associated with a potent upper shortwave that forms into a closed upper low and lingers near the Alaska Peninsula through at least the weekend. Multiple shortwaves rotate around the low as the attendant surface low gradually drifts closer to the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, precipitation is expected for Southwest Alaska, the Gulf, and the northwest Gulf coast for Friday and Saturday. Precipitation will especially be focused on the upslope sides of the mountain ranges while lower lying valley areas should stay on the drier side of things. By Sunday, the low's front spreads across the entire Gulf coast and still portions of Southwest Alaska, however models struggle with regards to the placement of the low center. The GFS keeps the low further west near the eastern Bering/Alaska Peninsula, while the CanNH and EC bring the low east into the Gulf. The GFS solution keeps the precipitation a bit steadier along the Gulf coast while the others break the system up over land, lessening the chances of precipitation.

AVIATION

PANC... Light and variable winds this morning to persist into the early afternoon with a return of the Turnagain Arm wind expected after 21Z today. Rain should be over until Wednesday evening and VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday; however, some diurnally driven showers are possible. Return to lower ceilings and rainy conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon.

Camp Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM AKDT     12.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM AKDT     -3.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:46 PM AKDT     10.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 07:25 PM AKDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Camp Cove, Aialik Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Seward
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:53 AM AKDT     12.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM AKDT     -2.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:49 PM AKDT     10.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 07:29 PM AKDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:39 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska (2), Tide feet

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