Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lowell Point, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 4:15AMSunset 11:46PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 9:09 AM AKDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 341 Am Akdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Today..Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowell Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -149.59     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191459
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
352 am akdt Wed jun 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Broad low pressure that had been in the gulf of alaska for days
was finally swept to the east by the jet stream. In its place a
shortwave ridge has brought some calm weather to southcentral ak
and looks to be in place for a couple days. One final wave is
pushing through the southeast mainland, but it isn't doing much
and will push out to sea this morning.

Out in the bering, low clouds and fog have moved in with cooler
air behind the low that had been firing convection over southwest
ak the past couple of days. High pressure building into the
bering sea has aided development of the fog and stratus. Out at
the end of the aleutian chain a front extending south from eastern
siberia is hung up and nearly stationary as it pushes against
high pressure over the bering sea.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement for the short term. They seem to have
locked on to the weather transition well and are consistently
depicting weak high pressure midweek followed by another low
moving into the gulf of alaska later in the week. Therefore,
forecast confidence is high in the short term.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Clouds will give way to sunny breaks during the afternoon with
convective clouds expected to develop along the mountains. A weak
boundary stretching between low pressure over the kuskokwim
delta... To the southern alcan border... Will be the focus for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the alaska range as
disturbances move ahead of the southwest low and another short
wave moving south from the interior. Otherwise... Expect afternoon
sea breezes along coastal locations with relatively light winds
inland.

Early Thursday morning another slow pattern shift begins with low
pressure over the southwest beginning to lift north as the next
low pressure moves up from the north pacific. A stream of low
level moisture moves across the gulf ahead of this next system
bringing low clouds across the gulf of alaska early Thursday with
fog possible across much of the western and central waters. For
inland locations... Expect a persistent pattern with light winds and
diurnal showers along the mountains. The one difference for Thursday
will be that thunderstorms are possible further south along the
talkeetna mountains and matanuska valley as the thermal ridge shifts
south.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
The low over the southwest coast will track north through the
kuskokwim delta today bringing light showers as it passes. The
showers will diminish tonight and then benign weather will linger
through Thursday. On Friday shower activity will pick up again
with the majority of the showers over the mountains.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Ridging remains over the western bering which has stalled an old
front over the western aleutians. This setup will bring light rain
to the aleutian islands into Thursday when the ridging finally
pushes east. Additionally, on Thursday, a north pacific system will
approach the alaska peninsula bringing rain to the area Thursday
night. A second system is approaching the western aleutians behind
the ridge and will make it to the aleutian islands early on Friday
as it tracks to the northeast.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
On Friday, a low traversing the gulf of alaska will spread an
easterly front (well below gale force) up to about kodiak before
the low weakens and moves east Friday night, leaving in its wake
high pressure through Sunday, keeping the region free of any
strong storms or gale force winds.

The storm track during this period will shift over to the western
bering sea and western aleutians Friday night as a near gale force
low moves into that area. There is high confidence that this low
weakens through Monday and remains west of the pribilof islands,
keeping quieter weather and typical fog stratus over the eastern
bering sea.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast on Friday evening, there
will be a low tracking over the gulf of alaska moving east with a
second low moving into the southwest bering sea. Upper ridging,
which is typical this time of year, will be building into the
eastern portion of alaska from the yukon. The vagaries of the
pattern still remain uncertain, but not much has changed from
yesterday, with the expectation that the gulf low will move east,
allowing for the ridge to amplify inland with warming temps and
the threat for interior thunderstorms through the weekend. By
Sunday and Monday, all the global numerical models still simulate
a strengthening high which, should it occur, result in the
warmest temps of the year for parts of the southern mainland as
850 hpa temps rise above 10c, in conjunction with "offshore" flow.

Some interior locations may hit the 80s. The overall pattern of
offshore flow is not strong, however, so temps will be moderated
some by afternoon thunderstorm developments and sea breezes across
coastal regions. Uncertainty builds late Tue as the models shift
where the upper ridge builds, but overall, the "summery" pattern
will likely persists in some fashion, with threats for
thunderstorms and warmer than average temps.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bjb
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
marine long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 7 mi40 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 1020.4 hPa47°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 26 mi58 min 1019.8 hPa
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 87 mi80 min 14 G 18 6 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK25 mi77 minNNE 12 G 1910.00 miFair57°F42°F58%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS54S6S8S8S8S7S7S6S6S6S6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE7N8N9N10
G16
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1 day agoCalmS7S6S5S5S4S6S7S19
G24
S15S11S9S10S8S10SE6SE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5S5S5S5S10S11S10S11S8SE5S3CalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmN6N10N11
G17
N7N9N7N6

Tide / Current Tables for Camp Cove, Aialik Bay, Alaska
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Camp Cove
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Wed -- 12:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:40 AM AKDT     11.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:00 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:26 AM AKDT     -2.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM AKDT     8.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:26 PM AKDT     3.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.99.81111.110.28.25.42.3-0.4-1.9-1.8-0.22.14.66.88.48.98.67.55.94.43.43.54.7

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska (2)
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Seward
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:40 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:43 AM AKDT     11.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:30 AM AKDT     -1.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:06 PM AKDT     8.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:30 PM AKDT     3.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.99.710.911.210.38.45.62.6-0.1-1.7-1.7-0.324.56.78.38.98.67.66.14.53.53.54.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.