Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Thursday May 24, 2018 5:34 PM AKDT (01:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 318 Pm Akdt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Tue..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250104
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
504 pm akdt Thu may 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern is largely unchanged from previous days,
with an elongated trough spanning much of the north pacific from
the western tip of the aleutian chain to the eastern gulf of
alaska. Broad cyclonic flow associated with this feature is
supporting a showery regime across the bering sea and southern
mainland. A weak front is lifting north through the gulf, helping
to enhance winds to small craft advisory level over the coastal
waters and also aiding in the development of modest gap winds
through typically favored areas including turnagain arm. Showers
continue to be most widespread along the coast, with inland
convection remaining sporadic and following more of a diurnal
curve.

Model discussion
Guidance is in generally good agreement through the weekend as the
low anchoring the north pacific trough moves east from the bering
into the gulf of alaska and allows upper level ridging to build in
across the bering. There are some small differences with placement
and timing of an attendant surface low moving into the gulf by
Saturday, so generally favored more of a GFS nam based solution by
day 3 as the ECMWF has struggled with run to run consistency. Gfs
also represents a good middle ground for another front moving into
the bering late in the weekend.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southeast winds will persist through late tonight and
then subside around 12z as the pressure gradient becomes more
favorable to down inlet flow out of turnagain arm.VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Clouds and scattered showers will persist this evening from
cordova west to kodiak as a weak upper-level shortwave stretches
along the coast. A second surface low will develop just to the
east of kodiak island along the afore-mentioned decaying feature
later tonight. This system will push an occluded front along the
coast Friday, bringing yet another round of rainfall to coastal
locations through early Saturday. Lingering coastal showers will
diminish in coverage Saturday afternoon as the front dissolves
and a general offshore flow develops. Aside from a few scattered
showers over the mountains, inland valley locations should remain
mostly dry. A thermal trough dropping south from central alaska
Saturday could help enhance the chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the talkeetna and alaska ranges Saturday
afternoon.

Southeasterly gap winds will continue Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening for turnagain arm, south and west
anchorage, knik river valley, and copper river basin. These winds
will subside Saturday as a more offshore flow develops.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level wave which brought steady rain to portions of the
kuskokwim valley and kuskokwim delta today will exit into the
bering tonight. Isolated to scattered showers elsewhere formed
under weak instability and little other forcing, so expect them
to dissipate pretty quickly this evening with loss of sunlight.

With some breaks in clouds, it will be another chilly night, with
temps dropping into the 30s in to lower 40s.

A very weak therm trough will set back up on Friday along the
kuskokwim valley down into interior bristol bay, right in between
weak upper waves coming in from opposite directions. With the
overall weak forcing expect just some isolated to scattered
diurnal convection. The potential for convection looks more
impressive on Saturday as a thermal trough strengthens from
interior alaska down along the west side of the alaska range.

This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile,
as an upper ridge builds over the bering sea, cooler air will
advect southward out ahead of it along the southwest coast. This
will lead to drier more stable conditions and chilly night-time
temperatures - perhaps dropping to near freezing. This airmass
will make a bit of progress eastward on Sunday, which should
confine any convective activity to right along the alaska range.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The weakening low over the southern bering sea will drop southward
into the north pacific tonight through Friday, with an upper
level ridge building in behind it. Cold advection down the front
side of the ridge will lead to gusty northerly winds over the
eastern bering sea and down to the southern alaska peninsula
beginning and continuing through much of the weekend. The upper
levels will remain progressive with a new storm system moving to
the western aleutians Saturday night and continuing eastward
across the bering sea on Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast beginning Sunday starts with a weakening
surface low over the eastern gulf of alaska being pushed east
into the panhandle as an upper ridge builds in over the western
and central parts of mainland ak. By Monday, the ridge axis looks
to be centered right over southecentral setting the stage for a
decent memorial day with mostly dry conditions, clearing skies,
and slightly warmer temperatures than seen over the past week.

Some diurnally driven convection will likely develop over the
higher terrain in the late afternoon hours as warmer temperatures
inland will help develop a thermal trough kicking off showers and
even some possible isolated thunderstorms.

Looking past memorial day, models are coming into better agreement
regarding the next system moving in from the bering, with a front
extending out from a low center over the eastern bering moving
across the west coast by Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The
front does look to weaken some as it moves further east towards
southcentral during the day on Tuesday as it runs into an upper
ridge axis extending south from the arctic. The GFS tries to keep
the front more intact as it moves east while the ec rapidly
weakens the system. Regardless, there is consensus in a return to
cooler and wetter weather next week as the upper low builds back
in over the bering and western alaska.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Cb
southcentral alaska... Tm
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Seb
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi53 min 44°F1006.8 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi43 min E 6 G 13 52°F 1006.8 hPa33°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi65 min ESE 12 1006 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi65 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 1006.9 hPa43°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi65 min ENE 15 G 15 48°F 1008.1 hPa35°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi42 minE 1010.00 miOvercast52°F35°F53%1007.5 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi42 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F32°F45%1007 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE64SE3SW4CalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS3NE6SE6CalmE8E12
G18
SE6SE5E8E10
1 day agoW11W11W11W8W8W6W3CalmE4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SW5CalmCalm5SE6S55
2 days agoSW8SW10W9W6W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE4E4SW5W9W11SW12W10W13

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
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Thu -- 04:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM AKDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:05 PM AKDT     15.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 PM AKDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.815.412.68.95.43.12.53.55.88.91214.215.114.412.395.42.61.62.44.88.312.115.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:33 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:22 AM AKDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:17 PM AKDT     15.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:34 PM AKDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
17.716.714.310.97.24.22.834.9811.614.515.815.513.810.87.242.123.87.111.315.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.