Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:03AMSunset 4:24PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:49 PM AKST (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 9:56PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 325 Pm Akst Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
Thu..NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri and Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 141345
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
445 am akst Wed nov 14 2018

Analysis and upper levels
There is a surface low south of kodiak with an occlusion wrapped
into it with a second decaying low situated south of false pass.

A third low south of the central aleutians is undergoing rapid
cyclogenesis, which is also where the jet core is located. There
is a ridge axis building over the western aleutians. On the
satellite which has been verified in multiple surface based
observation platforms, there has been fog over portions of
anchorage bowl, knik arm and the kenai peninsula.

Model discussion
The models are decent agreement with the synoptic features through
Thursday, after which the solutions begin to diverge. The area
that is the biggest eye sore is the new low in the north pacific,
which is on a course for the akpen. With the ridge in place over
southcentral, fog will remain the main forecast challenge.

Aviation
Panc... Patchy fog from yesterday evening quickly turned into
dense fog overnight. Fog often ebbs and flows resulting in
fluctuations in visibility which was observed in the early hours
of this morning. The current thinking is that the atmosphere is
stable enough to hold onto the fog until as late at 10 am.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today
through Thursday night)...

high pressure will build over southcentral alaska the next couple
days as the current low over the gulf exits off to southeast
alaska. Surface inversions already in place across much of the
region will only strengthen as the ridge builds in. Thus, expect
areas of dense fog to persist through at least Thursday, especially
in the cook inlet region. This includes the western kenai
peninsula, anchorage and portions of the mat-su. The copper river
basin would be the other area favored for persistent fog. Areas
not in the fog can expect abundant sunshine during the daytime.

Colder air filtering down from the north will support northerly
flow and localized gap winds along the coast, including seward,
whittier, and thompson pass areas. As far as gap wind events go,
this one will be quite weak.

As the ridge begins to slide eastward Thursday night, a storm
system will lift northward from the pacific, with a gale force
front bringing rain and wind to kodiak island Thursday night. If
there is any fog remaining over southcentral (which is a distinct
possibility), increasing clouds (and eventually precipitation)
should clear it out Thursday night or Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Wed
through fri)... The relative "lull" in the pattern will continue
through thu. The only weather features of substance are the snow
showers along the yk-delta coast and the low stratus across much
of the kuskokwim valley and delta. The snow showers are associated
with a baroclinic zone that is nearly stationary over the hooper
bay area. This feature should begin a slide to the west over the
open ocean later today. The other problem is the low stratus
currently stuck across much of the northern interior of the
region. The offshore surface winds have been enough to keep any
fog from forming thus far. However, a fairly dense shield of
stratus is in place. As high pressure settles over the area today
and winds begin to relax, it could be difficult to break this
stratus up. If the stratus does break and some radiational cooling
can take place tonight into thu, there should be a better chance
for fog Thu morning.

Yet another warm system starts to press up into bristol bay by
late Thu into early fri. This system will bring another round
of east to southeast winds, especially through the usual gaps.

There should be enough cold air back in the valleys of SW ak to
allow precipitation to at least start as snow. However, as warm
air moves overhead and southeast winds mixing down to the surface,
expect precipitation to change over to rain rather quickly. There
is an outside shot for some freezing rain once again in this
scenario, but at this time the surface temperatures look to warm
too quickly to add it into the forecast.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3 Wed
through fri)...

the majority of the bering will be dominated by colder northerly
flow and rain (turning to snow) showers today before a few
systems move in take shape on thu. First, what were once strong
storm- force northerlies have diminished all the way down to just
barely small- craft level winds over the central bering. This flow
will continue to abate today. However, the cold air over the
central and western bering will work in tandem with some warmer
air over the eastern bering. This will create an environment ripe
for continued showers and even for a surface low to develop near
st matthew island late thu. Moisture and warm air will move back
into bristol bay as another warm front slides into the area from
the N pacific late thu. This will bring an increase in easterly
winds and widespread stratiform rain and snow.

The other system is a weakening warm front that will push into the
western aleutians early thu. This system will bring gale-force
easterly winds and steady precipitation. The precipitation will
start as a mix of rain and snow before quickly transitioning to
all rain as warm air plows in from the N pacific.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long-term forecast begins Thursday night with an amplifying
upper-level ridge moving from the gulf over the alaska peninsula.

Upstream, a negatively-tilted trough persists from the eastern
bering south to the western gulf while a second trough deepens
over the western aleutians as a strengthening jet rounds its base.

Through the first half of the weekend, the longwave pattern
remains fairly progressive, with the leading ridge moving well
inland over canada as the main trough axis settles along the west
coast of alaska. Moving into early next week the eastward
progression of the trough slows as it anchors over the eastern
half of the state. Model agreement breaks down significantly after
Monday, especially with their respective solutions upstream of
the trough axis. The GFS is the more amplified solution, trying to
build a ridge over the bering ahead of the next trough exiting
eastern russia. The ec, on the other hand, keeps the pattern zonal
with an active jet south of the aleutians and a broad low over
the bering. The canadian takes the middle ground with weak ridging
over the bering quickly replaced by a trough. What this means is
that guidance in the medium and near long-term range (through the
weekend) remains in good agreement with a wet and active pattern
across much of the forecast area. Beyond that, there is some
agreement of a trough ridge trough setup from the western bering
to the eastern bering to the gulf. But confidence on placement and
intensity of these features is slim to none.

At the surface, this translates to a low approaching kodiak island
late Thursday with a trough extending across the bering keeping
things unsettled over southwest alaska. The low moves into the
northern gulf with its occluded front draped across the
southcentral coast by early Friday. Farther west, a second surface
low slides across the aleutians Thursday into Friday with its
occluded front nearing the southwest coast late Friday. A triple
point low is also expected to form south of the akpen late Friday,
moving into the western and northern gulf through the weekend.

This will keep conditions quite wet an unsettled over much of the
mainland through the weekend with some drying likely for southwest
alaska by late Monday into Tuesday as a weak surface ridge tries
to develop.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense fog advisory 101 121.

Marine... Gale warning 150 177 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mso
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi49 min 47°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi31 min 46°F1009.1 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi27 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1008.9 hPa30°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi79 min Calm 1008 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi19 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 1009.1 hPa38°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi19 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 38°F 1010.2 hPa35°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
NE11
NE11
G15
E10
E9
G12
NE10
NE10
G14
NE9
NE10
E10
G13
NE8
G11
E7
G10
E8
SE2
G5
E3
--
NE1
E4
E2
E4
N3
--
E3
NE4
NE4
1 day
ago
NE14
G22
NE15
G22
NE18
G25
NE14
G21
NE16
G22
NE14
G19
NE14
G20
E14
G18
NE10
G14
E6
G9
S11
G15
S7
G10
SE8
S5
SE5
SE4
E4
E4
E5
N4
N5
NE4
N6
G9
NE9
G12
2 days
ago
NE12
G18
NE13
G18
NE12
G18
NE12
G18
NE14
G19
NE16
G23
NE19
G29
NE16
G22
NE17
G25
NE18
G25
NE16
G23
NE19
G26
E18
G25
NE13
G20
NE14
G20
NE13
G17
NE14
G17
NE14
G17
NE13
G19
NE16
G21
NE15
G22
NE16
G23
NE13
G19
NE15
G20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi56 minE 410.00 miFair40°F35°F83%1009.5 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair36°F33°F89%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N4CalmN43CalmN3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE4E3NE3E4
1 day agoNE13NE12
G19
NE13
G19
NE12
G19
N9NE6SE9
G18
S8S12S7
G16
3SE56E8SE5NE3N3CalmCalmCalmNE4SW3CalmSE3
2 days agoCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmE8NE6NE6E6SE12
G22
SE9
G20
SE9
G17
SE9
G14
NW3CalmN3CalmNE3E3SE5E12NE12NE12

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:05 AM AKST     3.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:48 AM AKST     15.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:38 PM AKST     7.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:08 PM AKST     15.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:55 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
43.13.85.78.210.913.415.115.514.713.111.29.387.9910.812.714.315.114.713.2118.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:15 AM AKST     2.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:48 AM AKST     15.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:03 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:48 PM AKST     7.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:08 PM AKST     15.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:55 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
433.45.27.810.613.31515.514.713.211.39.487.68.610.512.514.215.114.713.211.18.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.