Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 8:49 PM

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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.Thu night - N wind 20 kt.Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt.Sun - N wind 20 kt.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 070027 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 427 PM AKDT Mon May 6 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low is moving across the northern Gulf of Alaska, bringing isolated to scattered showers across the northern Gulf and through Prince William Sound. A band of more steady rain is across Cook Inlet this afternoon and oriented from around Kenai northward to the Susitna Valley. Rainfall has cleared from the Anchorage area, though cloudiness remains. The Copper River Basin is mostly sunny with gusty winds to 30 mph. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds are developing along the foothills of the Wrangells and the Alaska Range.

The band of rainfall is expected to continue west and dissipate through this evening, though stray showers could linger overnight, primarily for higher elevations of the Alaska Range and the Wrangell mountains. Coastal areas could also get some stray showers. Another round of precipitation is expected to return across most of the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound Tuesday as a trough lifts inland. Another low will track similarly into the Gulf for Tuesday and Kodiak will have precipitation return Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The front will continue northward with increasing chances for Southcentral through Wednesday night. A band of precipitation could develop over Anchorage Wednesday evening.

Cooler air will advect through Southcentral following the low and some areas of higher elevations could see a mix of rain and snow or even all snow. For passes across Southcentral (Thompson, Turnagain, Moose), snow is possible overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning. While the forecast is pointing toward snow chances, confidence is low at this time.

With the progression of lows moving through the Gulf over the short term, south to southeasterly flow at times will promote gusty winds through gaps in terrain for communities around Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and Copper River Valley. Winds could gust 20 to 30 mph.

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.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled conditions with areas of mixed rain/snow will continue across much interior Southwest Alaska through midweek as a stalled surface boundary remains draped from near King Salmon to north of Aniak. These areas of showers will be enhanced both Tuesday morning and again Wednesday as a series of weak upper-level waves moves across the region from the west.

These waves are moving out ahead of the main upper-level, longwave trough situated over the eastern half of the Bering. A potent shortwave trough will move south from the Bering Strait Tuesday morning to the Pribilof Islands by Wednesday morning. This feature will deepen into an upper-level low. This, combined with cold, dense air near the surface advecting from the Gulf of Anadyr over the northern Bering, will result in the development of compact polar low. While guidance continues to struggle with the exact timing and track of this feature, it will most likely deepen rapidly as it moves from west of Saint Matthew Island south toward the Saint Paul Island.

A core of gale-force winds and storm-force gusts are likely along the western flank of the low, with gales persisting along the way to the eastern Aleutians for late Wednesday. A core of snow will also accompany this system. Again, the exact set up remains uncertain, but a track over or very near the Pribilofs could bring at least some measurable snow along with gusty winds.

This low reaches Bristol Bay for Thursday with showers for the AKPen and Bristol Bay coast. Another deep low moving east from the Kamchatka Peninsula will push a gale-force front across the western Aleutians for Wednesday and the central Aleutians for Thursday.

-TM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The longterm forecast begins on Friday with broad troughing continuing to stretch from the western Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska, with multiple upper-level shortwaves embedded within the flow. At the surface, a system weakens over Southcentral on Friday while an expansive low encompasses much of the Bering and the Aleutians. This low is associated with a potent upper shortwave that forms into a closed upper low and lingers near the Alaska Peninsula through at least the weekend. Multiple shortwaves rotate around the low as the attendant surface low gradually drifts closer to the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, precipitation is expected for Southwest Alaska, the Gulf, and the northwest Gulf coast for Friday and Saturday. Precipitation will especially be focused on the upslope sides of the mountain ranges while lower lying valley areas should stay on the drier side of things. By Sunday, the low's front spreads across the entire Gulf coast and still portions of Southwest Alaska, however models struggle with regards to the placement of the low center. The GFS keeps the low further west near the eastern Bering/Alaska Peninsula, while the CanNH and EC bring the low east into the Gulf. The GFS solution keeps the precipitation a bit steadier along the Gulf coast while the others break the system up over land, lessening the chances of precipitation.

AVIATION

PANC... Southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to develop once again this evening and persist into the overnight hours. With cooler temperatures and extensive cloud cover in place, the atmosphere is more stable than it has been in recent days, so there is uncertainty in the duration of the gusty winds; it could be briefer than indicated in the TAF. Wednesday afternoon looks like another marginal day for the Turnagain winds, with the terminal on the northern periphery of the Turnagain Arm jet.
Still, with marginally higher temps/instability, do think some gusty winds will develop by 00Z. Meanwhile, VFR ceiling/vis and dry conditions will persist.

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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:54 AM AKDT     22.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:33 AM AKDT     -4.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:42 PM AKDT     20.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 09:40 PM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

Homer
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:03 AM AKDT     21.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM AKDT     -4.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM AKDT     19.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:45 PM AKDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Homer, Alaska (2), Tide feet

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