Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:34AMSunset 11:19PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:41 PM AKDT (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Pm Akdt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 300053
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
453 pm akdt Mon may 29 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low over southern alaska moving fairly
rapidly to the north. The flow is fairly strongly cyclonic with a
decent vort-max over the cook inlet susitna valley area. There is
some shower activity over much of southern alaska. There is an
upper level ridge behind this low over the gulf of alaska, which
bends northward along the west coast of the state. There is a
fairly large upper low over much of the bering sea, centered just
north of the western aleutians. A nearly stationary front
associated with this low is over the central bering extending to
just west of umnak island.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement during the short
term portion of the forecast. There are still some differences in
timing and location of showers drying in the first 24 hours.

Forecast confidence is thus near to slightly below normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Breezy southerly winds will
diminish this evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
A dynamic closed upper low over the region is finally lifting
northward towards interior alaska this evening. Instability
showers are encompassing most of the inland areas, especially
regions along and west of the chugach and talkeetna mountains.

Enhanced turnagain convergence is enhancing local showers around
anchorage as well, but these should rapidly diminish during the
later evening hours. Showers will linger the longest across the
northern susitna valley where favorable flow behind the departing
upper low will keep upslope precipitation through the morning
hours tomorrow.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see building heights aloft and warming
temperatures as the pressure gradient gradually becomes weakly
offshore. With clearing skies and warming temperatures aloft (850
hpa temperatures get close to 7-10 c by thu, the warmest of the
year at that level), expect each successive day through Thursday
to be warmer region wide. Wednesday and Thursday will be the first
above average temperature days in quite a while. Diurnal sea
breezes should be in place along the coast, but the offshore
pressure gradient will delay them somewhat. Inland areas like
anchorage may flirt with some local 70 degree temperatures by
Thursday given the favorable gradient.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level trough over southwest alaska will lift away to the
northeast tonight with an upper level ridge building in behind it.

The amplifying ridge will end showers overnight with warm and dry
weather prevailing Tuesday through Thursday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The broad vertically stacked low currently centered over the
southwestern bering will track gradually east-southeast to cross
the central aleutians Tuesday night and Wednesday and then arrive
south of the alaska peninsula Thursday. An associated frontal
system will progress slowly into the central bering through
midweek while a developing frontal wave to the south lifts another
piece of the front into the eastern aleutians Tuesday night. The
front will then pivot east spreading more of the front north to
the alaska peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper
low speeds up and crosses by to the south of it.

Fire weather
The ridging building across southern alaska will bring a
significant warming and drying trend starting Tuesday and
continuing through Thursday with minimum relative humidities
dropping into the 20s and high temperatures climbing into the 60s
to low 70s. Following this warm and dry spell, the upper level
ridge will shift north over western and interior alaska with an
upper level low becoming centered in the southern gulf. This
upper level progression will open southern alaska to easterly
waves moving in from the yukon territory towards the end of the
week. The combination of this incoming mid moisture, instability
and the warmest air mass of the year so far will bring the
potential for isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday. While confidence is moderate in this general pattern
progression, continued large run to run model variations in the
location of the upper level features keeps uncertain high
regarding the location most likely for thunderstorms to form.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
There is high uncertainty in the long range forecast beginning on
Friday as models differ with solutions on a low across the gulf
of alaska. They are trending toward a similar solution that the
southern mainland and gulf will see increasing rain chances
through the extended forecast into Monday as a broad trough moves
several low pressure systems from the north pacific to the gulf.

To the west, a less organized pattern is anticipated with weak
ridging over the central bering expected to shift as multiple
disturbances move through the flow from the northeast pacific and
eastern russia. The inherited forecast was kept intact due to the
lack of model run consistency.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi33 min 44°F1 ft
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi71 min W 5.1 51°F 1014 hPa36°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi41 min 44°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi41 min S 16 G 20 45°F 1015 hPa (+0.0)39°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi41 min SSW 16 G 17 45°F 45°F1015.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi1.8 hrsSSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F37°F55%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S4CalmW3W4CalmSW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E34S8S11S10S11S10S10S8
1 day agoSE7
G13
E13E9E11NE7NE9NE9E8E12NE13NE12NE13
G22
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NE12NE13E12E12E14
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2 days agoS8
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S5CalmS4SE43CalmNE3NE3NE3NE5E9E6E5E5E12NE7
G15
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G21
E13
G24

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM AKDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM AKDT     21.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM AKDT     -3.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 PM AKDT     19.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.525.210.115.219.321.220.417.212.36.61.2-2.6-3.8-22.17.51317.319.418.916.412.47.9

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:54 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM AKDT     20.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:49 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:22 PM AKDT     -4.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM AKDT     18.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.136.811.51619.320.51915.29.73.8-1.2-3.8-3.5-0.63.9913.817.318.717.714.510.25.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.