Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 8:29PM Friday March 24, 2017 1:59 PM AKDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:06AMMoonset 2:09PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 339 Am Akdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Today..NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Tonight..N wind 20 kt.
Sat..N wind 15 kt becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon.
Sat night..N wind 10 kt.
Sun through Tue..NE wind 10 kt.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241157
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
357 am akdt Fri mar 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Dominant high pressure has maintained over the eastern bering and
is continuing to bring clear skies to southwest alaska and western
parts of southcentral alaska. The main trough sits over eastern
portions of southcentral alaska and has brought some light snow
to some of these areas. West of the ridge, a front is starting to
move in over the western and central aleutians bringing rain and
gale force winds to the islands.

Model discussion
For the most part the models are in good agreement through the mid
term. However, there are some differences with a low moving to
south of the eastern aleutians on Sunday. The ec brings the low
the furthest north and then has it absorbed into the low further
to the west. The other models keep the low tracking east out ahead
of the westerly low for a while longer before stalling it and
having it absorbed. Except for the gem which always keeps it
faster.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The surface pressure gradients will increase across southcentral
tonight as the trough over the gulf intensifies some. As a result,
outflow winds across the north gulf coast (valdez/thompson
pass/copper river delta), eastern kenai peninsula, and the
matanuska valley will increase this evening and hold into Saturday
morning. Winds will then decrease Saturday afternoon and evening
as pressure gradients relax. The proximity of the upper trough
will continue the threat of snow showers over the northern gulf
and portions of the copper river basin into Saturday. Snow showers
will likely become more widespread across the northern gulf coast
on Saturday/Saturday night as upper trough overhead strengthens.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Crystal clear skies remain the norm once again as a strong area of
high pressure centered near the bering strait retains full control
of the weather. The continuation of the broken record pattern
means more sunshine and seasonable temperatures during the day and
cool temperatures at night. Most areas are forecast to remain
above 0 though thanks to steady northeast winds. Thus, while the
winds will keep nighttime lows from dropping as far as they could,
the resultant wind chills will definitely remind those venturing outside
that old man winter isn't going out without a fight. For the next
several nights, wind chills in most areas are aiming for a few
degrees on either side of 10 below. However, twelve and a half
hours of daylight (and counting) will still make for healthy
temperature recoveries well into the 20s during the day under
mostly sunny skies.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A gale force front is pushing across the western and central
aleutians and is the cause of the most active weather in all of
alaska this morning. The front is wrapped around the northeast
side of a low that is nearing its peak intensity as it approaches
the aleutians. The front will already begin weakening later this
afternoon into tonight as the parent low weakens and halts its
approach to the western aleutians. Showery conditions with gusty
southeast winds will remain the norm right through the weekend as
the pattern remains warm and wet, but total precipitation amounts
will be light. By Sunday, another low will advance any heavier
precipitation further east into the eastern aleutians, but a very
stubborn high pressure system over the northern bering will
curtail significant northward progress for any areas of
precipitation and associated low pressure systems.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The ridging over the bering sea continues through Saturday before
an upstream north pacific low pressure system pushes the ridge
into the gulf of alaska by Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be positioned over the anchorage bowl with an
associated trough extending into the gulf from Saturday through
Tuesday, before merging with several weak north pacific lows.

The next major storm force low tracks towards the eastern
aleutians by Thursday morning, with an associated weather front
entering the gulf. This brings a pattern change with the offshore
flow over the southcentral region diminishing, and shifting to
onshore southerly flow. There is uncertainty with timing of how
long the arctic trough stalls over the southcentral region. The
gfs model is showing a faster solution, and the ECMWF was slower
with this synoptic feature. Meanwhile, by Thursday the jet stream
transitions to a southwesterly flow just south of the eastern
aleutians extending eastward into the lower southeastern gulf.

This enhances storm tracks from the north pacific area into the
eastern aleutians/gulf region. The forecast confidence is low as
we head into midweek and beyond due to the uncertainty with the
timing/strength with the upcoming low pressure systems as they
track towards the southwest/southcentral regions.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.

Heavy freezing spray... 121 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jw
long term... Pd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi51 min 38°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi41 min 37°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi29 min S 4.1 G 5.1 25°F 1010.5 hPa8°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi41 min WNW 6 G 8.9 27°F 1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair32°F12°F45%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW3S5S4CalmNE8NE5N4CalmN6E4CalmNE4N3N4CalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE5NE8NE6Calm
1 day agoNE10
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NE7N7N6NW8N9N93NE6E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E4SE4
2 days agoE8E8E5NE11NE9NE9NE7N3N3N5N4CalmCalmNE5CalmNE3NE3CalmN3CalmN3NE6E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
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Fri -- 01:53 AM AKDT     15.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:46 AM AKDT     5.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:30 PM AKDT     16.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:13 PM AKDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.315.315.915.113.210.57.75.95.46.6912.114.916.616.715.312.79.35.72.91.72.24.58

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM AKDT     15.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM AKDT     5.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:18 PM AKDT     16.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:11 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:40 PM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.314.815.11411.78.96.45.25.67.39.712.514.81615.713.9117.441.81.52.95.59

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.