Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:27AMSunset 4:05PM Thursday November 23, 2017 5:26 AM AKST (14:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:29PMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 354 Am Akst Thu Nov 23 2017
.gale warning Friday...
.heavy freezing spray warning Friday...
Today..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri..N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Fri night..N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Sat..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231408
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
508 am akst Thu nov 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A deep low pressure system and associated front are bringing
strong southeasterly winds and snowfall to the kuskokwim delta as
well as the western bristol bay area with very strong west to
northwesterly winds pushing in behind it. The strong low, upper
level coupled jet stream and cold air advection are supplying
enough forcing for storm force winds to occur over much of the
central and eastern bering as evidenced by scatterometer data. As
the low traverses south down the southwest alaska coastline, the
west to northwesterly gale to storm force sustained winds are
spreading over the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula as well
with hurricane force gusts through channeled terrain and mixing
down in areas of strong cold air advection.

While southwestern alaska is experiencing strong winds and
snow, the weather over gulf and southcentral alaska is quieter if
on the chilly side. A triple point low to the east of kodiak
island is in the process of absorbing some of the energy from the
bering sea storm, causing it to further deepen in response to the
upper trough and cold air aloft crossing the alaska peninsula and
pushing into the western gulf. Offshore flow and gap winds are
strengthening again in response both the low forming in the gulf
and the cold air pool deepening inland.

Model discussion
The models are in good agreement through around Friday night
bringing the next frontal system into the central bering. Starting
Saturday however fast moving waves tracking along strong north
pacific jet start introducing major model differences in the
timing and track of the series of strong lows tracking across the
aleutians and southern bering into the gulf Sunday through next
week.

Aviation
Panc... Patchy low stratus moving in and out will keep conditions
bouncing between ifr andVFR this morning before increasing
offshore flow and breezy north winds clear things out withVFR
conditions persisting this afternoon through Friday.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 2)
A powerful storm force low over the eastern bering sea is moving
into the western gulf of alaska this morning as a triple point low
forms south of the kenai peninsula. Snow showers will impact parts
of kodiak island (mainly the northern and western parts) and the
southern kenai peninsula before the low quickly dives into the
central gulf this afternoon.

Thereafter, the main story will be the rapidly increasing offshore
pressure gradient as cold arctic air over the interior and copper
basin pushes dense air through the alaska range and chugach
mountains along the coast. A potential vorticity anomaly along a
150 knot jet streak will track over cook inlet and kodiak island
Thursday night and Friday, and this will enhance the offshore
winds throughout southcentral. Kodiak island will potentially see
some mountain wave trapping, so williwaw gusts may reach into the
high 60 mph range with this event. Otherwise, valdez and the
matanuska valley will also reach into the 60+ mph range, so this
outflow wind event looks quite impressive. Otherwise, very cold
and dry looks to be the main story is 850 hpa temperatures drop to
-15 to -20 c by Friday. Folks who like to recreate in the
mountains should plan for dangerous wind chill conditions,
especially Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A strong area of low pressure easily seen in satellite and radar
data continues to slowly churn south southeast along the coast,
with the latest observations placing it just off the coast of
kipnuk. The cold front stalled on top of bethel as expected.

Further south, the front made more progress than though yesterday,
having easily cleared king salmon before stalling earlier this
morning. This was likely due to a greater fetch of a marine aided
thermal push as the warm layer was very shallow based on the king
salmon raob.

As the low continues its southeastward trek, colder air advecting
into the region will allow all liquid precipitation to switch
back over to snow showers. Both radar and satellite have a very
convective look to them, which is no surprise based on the
strength of the low, so a few briefly intense snow showers with
visibilities reduced to less than 1 mile may develop at a few
locations. Blowing snow further inland will add to this potential
as well.

Otherwise, look for improving conditions as we head through
tomorrow into Saturday, as short-wave ridging traverses the area,
bringing increased subsidence and drier air to the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The gales (and storms) of november are definitely blowing this
morning across the eastern half of the aleutians akpen and bering
sea, as a strong low moves from near kipnuk towards the gulf of
alaska. Very strong cold advection behind a front that cleared the
region last night continues, with observations near unalaska and
at saint george island having already reached warning criteria.

It's only a matter of time before zone 181 gets in on the action,
as here too warning criteria wind speeds will easily be met.

False pass and king cove stand the best chance of seeing this
occur due to the more channeled terrain. Widespread showery
precipitation crossing the region may help mix down these gusts at
times, especially with the stronger showers due to increased
downward momentum transfer processes. We're thinking mid morning
to mid afternoon will be the best time frame to see all of this
verify.

Further west, mainly gale force winds are expected through
tomorrow across the western aleutians and bering sea, as these
areas remain on the edges of the strong storm further east. A
short-wave ridge aloft currently trying to build into western
portions of the chain from the south will amplify some during the
next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will shift eastward with time,
bringing decreasing winds and clearing skies. However, another
cold front will sweep east across the region with widespread
precipitation developing in the Friday evening through Saturday
time frame.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term portion of the forecast begins Friday night with a
familiar outflow wind pattern in place across much of southern
alaska, with a ridge over the bering sea and a longwave trough
extending along the alcan border into the eastern gulf. This will
keep most of the area cold and dry well into the weekend before
the ridge breaks down and the pattern begins to shift once again
Sunday into early next week.

Forecast confidence quickly diminishes by the beginning of next
week as a deep trough over eastern russia sends a series of
shortwaves into the bering sea. Models continue to show poor
agreement with respect to the evolution of these waves and
subsequent development and placement of surface features. It
appears that a deep low will rapidly intensify over the bering
Saturday night and then move to the general vicinity of the alaska
peninsula by late Sunday, sending a front near the southwest
coast and bringing the threat for another round of mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to portions of southwest ak. An even
deeper low then looks to approach the aleutian chain on Monday,
bringing stormy conditions to the southern bering with the details
largely dependent upon the track of the low through the middle of
the week. Guidance is also hinting at another system moving into
the western gulf in the Monday Tuesday time frame, but confidence
is low at this time as specific solutions remain all over the map.

Generally speaking, those in southern alaska can expect chances
for precipitation to increase through the first half of next week
(especially along the coast) as temperatures rebound closer to
seasonal normal values.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Coastal flood advisory 161
winter weather advisory 155 161
high wind warning 181 185 195
marine... Storm warning 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180
gale warning 119 120 121 125 126 127 128 130 131 132 136
137 138 139 140 160 173 174 175 176 177 178 181 185
heavy freezing spray warning 121 140
synopsis and model discussion... Jer ra
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi49 min 45°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi39 min 44°F988 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi27 min N 8 G 8.9 20°F 991.6 hPa (-1.5)15°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi39 min E 4.1 G 5.1 17°F 37°F991.2 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi34 minNE 410.00 miOvercast23°F14°F68%988.5 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N3CalmE6NE3N6N3N6CalmNE4NE4NE5NE6NE9NE9NE4N5NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5NE4
1 day agoCalmNE6CalmNE4N5N4CalmNW3CalmE4NE4NE4NE5NE33N4W33W7NW4NW5NW4NW5Calm
2 days agoE6NE6NE10NW4N33NE3NE7NE63NE10N4NE5N3NW3N3CalmNE3N3CalmCalmNE4N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
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Thu -- 06:03 AM AKST     17.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:25 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:54 AM AKST     5.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:29 PM AKST     17.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:03 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.96.310.113.716.317.316.614.511.78.86.767.29.913.115.817.417.415.812.89.35.93.2

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
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Thu -- 05:51 AM AKST     16.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM AKST     5.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:17 PM AKST     16.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:06 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:42 PM AKST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.547.310.813.91616.515.41310.17.45.96.1810.713.415.616.816.414.311.17.44.22.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.