Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 9:55 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 4:18 AM

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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.Thu night - N wind 20 kt.Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt.Sun - N wind 20 kt.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 261248 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 448 AM AKDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday)...
Today is shaping up to be the overall cloudiest day of the next few over Southcentral as a weak front has moved up Cook Inlet and is over the Susitna Valley through Prince William Sound early this morning. This has brought a few rain showers along with it, but they have been diminishing and will continue to taper off through the morning. This front is associated with a cold upper level low that is centered near the eastern Aleutians this morning and will continue to head to the southeast. As it moves southeastward to day it is tapping into the jet stream which is spinning up a new surface low southwest of Kodiak. The GOES-18 satellite loop from overnight shows this development nicely and the plume of moisture being lifted and heading toward Kodiak Island. This will bring in the rain today with rainfall amounts of an inch to inch-and-a-half expected for Kodiak City and the eastern side of the Island today through tonight.

By tonight, this new surface low south of Kodiak will weaken in place as the jet stream heads eastward in conjunction with the upper level low and a new upper level ridge develops over southwest Alaska. This will turn the upper level flow northeastward for most of Southcentral for Saturday and bring in mostly sunny skies. Kodiak won't be as quick to clear out, but it will shut off the rain.

There is also a little more clarity in regards to a potential easterly wave in the Copper River Basin late Saturday into Sunday.
There is a little wave that develops along the Eastern Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains Saturday night and will bring some rain showers (snow showers at higher elevations). This wave will not progress westward, however, as a weak short wave in the Interior looks to track over the northeastern Copper River Basin Sunday which will keep those showers going, but also push them into the Yukon Sunday night as it moves eastward. Therefore, the precipitation look to be limited to the northeastern Copper River Basin at this time.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...

The southcentral Bering Sea low continues to fill and weak this morning. Showery conditions across the eastern Aleutians are expected to wind down today and become more isolated into this evening as northerly flow takes control.

Meanwhile, a shortwave lifting northward in the North Pacific be "picked up" by the broad upper-level Bering trough as the trough takes on more of a negative tilt by this morning. The associated surface low and sub-tropical moisture tap will also lift northward in conjunction. Confidence has increased that the heaviest of the moisture will fall along the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) between the Shumagin Islands and Kodiak Island late this morning into the evening hours before tapering down during the day Saturday. There does remain some uncertainty as to how much of the moisture will make it across the Aleutian Range and into the Bering Sea side communities of the AKPEN (Port Heiden and Pilot Point). This is due in part to east- southeast flow that causes a downslope drying effect. As this system weakens and drops back to the south in the North Pacific, northerly flow ensues yet again on the backside.
Cold Bay and Nelson Lagoon stand the best chance at seeing scattered rain and snow showers during the day Saturday while most of mainland Southwest Alaska stays mostly dry with scattered showers along the coast of Bristol Bay.

The next weather-maker treks eastward towards the western Aleutians in the form of a Kamchatka front on Saturday. This is not an overly strong front with only pockets of small-craft winds anticipated. Off-and-on rain showers will be commonplace for western Aleutians Saturday into Sunday morning before a break Sunday afternoon. A stronger Kamchatka front arrives to the western Aleutians for Sunday night into Monday bringing gale-force winds with it and enhanced precipitation.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu)...

By Monday morning, a familiar ridge over Southcentral will still be lingering in the area, continuing the clear pattern. An upper level trough will be situated over the southern Alaska Peninsula, crossing into the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, and a new upper level trough entering the western Bering Sea behind it. Through Tuesday, the ridge will likely extend from Southcentral into Southwest Alaska following the departure of the AKPen trough, while the western Bering system pushes a front across the Aleutians, likely reaching Unalaska by late Tuesday. The front is expected to generally weaken as it approaches Southwest and the resident ridge, but the parental low pressure system behind the front will likely move over the Western and Central Aleutians through Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge over southern Alaska may begin to weaken as the upper-level support shows signs of shifting out of the area. This may allow for influence from the Bering low to move into Southwest Alaska and even Southcentral Alaska as the system approaches by late Thursday. Gauging impacts from this low in Southwest and Southcentral is still precarious given the uncertainty regarding the ridge movement, as well as the location/progression of the low itself. However, given the prolonged shift towards warmer weather over the next week expected, impacts from this system will likely not be winter weather. Although the overall synoptic setup is in fair agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.

-CL

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Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, Tide feet

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