Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:46PM Thursday June 21, 2018 12:18 AM AKDT (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 352 Pm Akdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Mon..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 210049
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
449 pm akdt Wed jun 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The overall pattern remains very similar to the previous few days
but there is a small change that is causing a change in the
forecast over southcentral. The main items of interest today are
all impacted by the upper level ridge that is in canada and
pushing into the interior of the state. The ridge appears to be a
bit stronger than was expected and that is impacting the movement
of the front in the gulf of alaska (more information on specifics
of this front in the model discussion section below). This ridge
is also bringing in warmer temperatures to much of southcentral
alaska today.

Weak instability remains over the kuskokwim delta and in the
northern copper river basin this afternoon.

Model discussion
It can be stated once again that models are in good agreement in
the overall synoptic pattern. However, the models from yesterday
show once again that model consensus does not necessarily mean
correctness, as there are some significant shifts in the forecast
solutions for tonight through Friday across southcentral and
parts of southwest mainland alaska. In short, the upper level
ridge poking into the interior of the state from canada is
stronger than any models were indicating yesterday. This is
slowing the progression of the front that is in the southwest gulf
of alaska and delaying it by 12 to 24 hours. In addition the
front will be weaker and bring less precipitation to southcentral
alaska, though it will move across kodiak and the bristol bay
regions slower and therefore bring more rain to those areas.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The pattern of an upper level low over the bering and ridging to
the east of southcentral alaska will continue through the end of
the week. However, this pattern will start to break down on
Friday. Flow aloft will still be out of the south bringing more
moisture to the area and a shortwave moving through the flow is
supporting a surface front moving through kodiak island. The front
will make it over the kenai peninsula Thursday spreading more
rain and cloud cover to the area. It will then break apart but
will bring showers to areas around southcentral alaska. Showers
and weak flow will continue into Saturday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The broad elongated upper level low stretching across the eastern
bering, bristol bay and alaska peninsula will gradually broaden
through Thursday and then begin drifting slowly northwest on
Friday. A frontal wave pushing across the area from the southeast
to northwest will bring quite a bit of rain overnight with qpf
amounts of a half to three quarters of an inch of rain under the
center of the wave and totals of two tenths to four tenths of an
inch along the periphery. Showery weather will continue on
Thursday with a secondary peak in coverage in the afternoon and
evening then taper off to more of an isolated to scattered
coverage on Friday as the upper low begins to move away. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible in small portions of the forecast
area each afternoon and evening.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The upper level low in the eastern bering will remain the primary
weather feature tonight through Friday as it broadens and shifts
gradually west into the central bering. A pacific frontal system
will reach the western aleutians Friday night and central
aleutians Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 8)
Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern through the long term, especially over the northern gulf
and southcentral alaska. A low in the northeast pacific will
continue its trek toward the alaska panhandle for the weekend as a
ridge of high pressure slides into the northern gulf. Over the
interior, a thermal trough will set up roughly along the alaska
range as an upper-level ridge retreats northward. This will also
establish a weak offshore flow, allowing for a general warming
trend across southern alaska. A series of upper-level shortwaves
will move across southern alaska around both the cyclonic
circulation over the bering and the low over the alaska panhandle.

This will aid in the instability and result in scattered afternoon
and evening clouds and showers throughout southern alaska. The
ridge begins to break down Tuesday as the next low advances from
the west.

Over the bering, the occluded low will continue to slowly break
down and retreat to the northwest as high pressure spreads across
southwest alaska over the weekend. The weak, cyclonic flow aloft,
however, will still provide enough moisture and instability for
the build-up of late day clouds and showers across interior
locations. A low moving into the southern bering from the western
aleutians on Sunday will help reestablish the upper-level low
across the region. This trough will slide east back over the
eastern bering on Monday a surface low tracks toward the akpen for
Tuesday. There is still uncertainty in the timing and placement
of the surface low and its upper-level companion with the gfs
favoring a more progressive solution over the ec. GFS placement
of the trough axis is also negatively tilted and farther south
than the ec, bringing more moisture into southwest alaska by late
Monday. Nonetheless, the developing pattern favors unsettled
weather returning to the bering and aleutians by the start of next
week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 145.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi48 min NW 1.9 1006 hPa
HMSA2 33 mi26 min Calm G 1.9 49°F 1006.4 hPa45°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi48 min 46°F1006.7 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi48 min NNW 6 G 6 58°F 1006.6 hPa48°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi48 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 51°F 50°F1007.3 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair51°F48°F92%1007 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W6W3CalmSE3SE3CalmSW8W7SW11W3W6SW7W4SW6SW3SW5SW3Calm
1 day agoSE15
G25
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W4NW7NW3CalmW8W7W7W4W6W3W5CalmW5S5W5W4W4CalmCalmW5CalmCalm
2 days ago--E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 AM AKDT     3.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:32 AM AKDT     15.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:50 PM AKDT     2.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:10 PM AKDT     17.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.312.28.55.33.43.14.57.110.413.315.115.313.911.48.35.232.43.66.39.913.716.617.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 AM AKDT     2.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM AKDT     14.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:17 PM AKDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM AKDT     17.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.810.36.73.92.83.45.27.910.813.314.514.312.69.86.53.72.32.64.47.310.71416.317.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.