Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Valley, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday February 22, 2018 1:34 AM AKST (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 12:59AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 332 Pm Akst Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Thu..S wind 15 kt.
Thu night..W wind 15 kt.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt.
Fri night..N wind 10 kt.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Sun through Mon..SW wind 10 kt.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK
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location: 60.02, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220135
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
435 pm akst Wed feb 21 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A low complex over the eastern bering sea is progressing northward.

The associated frontal boundary extends from near saint lawrence
island south to near the y-k delta coast, then southwest across
the eastern aleutians. Widespread cloud cover under broad
southwesterly flow aloft extends across much of southern mainland.

Generally lower clouds with areas of snow and rain were evident
west of the alaska range aleutian range. With the exception of
lower stratus over the copper river basin and near knik arm,
higher clouds were the norm across southcentral. Brisk to strong
southerly winds were observed in advance of the front over the
eastern bering sea and along the alaska peninsula. Showers and
brisk strong westerly winds were evident on the backside of the
front across the bering sea and remainder of the aleutians.

Model discussion
Available models (ecmwf not available) overall are relatively
good agreement. The main challenge will be in the mesoscale
details across southcentral which will favor the use of higher
resolution models and forecaster experience.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Expect ifr to lifr conditions in snow developing
after midnight tonight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system and southwesterly flow aloft currently over
southwest alaska will push east tonight, spreading precipitation
into southcentral alaska during the early morning hours. While
there is some uncertainty regarding the strength and extent of
turnagain arm wind developing overnight (which would warming
temperatures somewhat), with the dry air mass in place, even if
precipitation in the anchorage bowl does start out as a patchy mix
of light snow, rain and freezing rain it should quickly
transition over to all snow as precipitation rates increase and
wet bulb evaporation cools the lower atmosphere.

The heavier precipitation will start between 4 and 6 am Thursday
and continue through late morning. With strengthening south to
southwesterly 850 and 700 mb winds and good cold air advection
with the upper level trough following the frontal system, the
eastern susitna valley, talkeetna mountains and matanuska valley
will be favored for higher snow amounts with this event.

Additionally, the western chugach will also benefit from
orographic enhancement as winds turn more westerly from mid
morning onward.

Behind the upper trough, west to northwesterly flow aloft and
accompanying colder air mass will push across southcentral alaska
Thursday night and Friday. While up-slope flow will cause snow
showers to persist longer along the chugach mountains... Elsewhere
showers will taper off with clearing skies and increasing west to
northwesterly winds, strongest where channeled through terrain
gaps.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
The front that has moved in over the kuskokwim delta will continue
its track east tonight spreading precip throughout southwest
alaska. This system has brought up enough warm air for most places
to see rain initially. However, as more cold air moves in behind
the front, most areas will transition to snow. Thursday will see
ridging move over the area from the west that will clear out the
precip and allow for fog formation Thursday night. Then on Friday
another front will push in from the west bringing more snow to
southwest alaska. Snow will continue but diminish into Saturday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
There is an active pattern over the bering with a front moving
through the eastern bering and ridging over the western bering
following behind the eastward moving front. The front will move
out tonight with the ridging building in over the central and
eventually eastern bering. Behind the ridge a new system will move
in over the western aleutians on Thursday. This new system will
track into the central bering and eastern aleutians Thursday
night. Friday afternoon it will exit the bering to the east
leaving the bering and aleutians in cold westerly flow.

Long term forecast (Saturday afternoon through Wednesday)
An active pattern continues through the extended time frame. For
southcentral alaska, snow-bearing systems with a day of cold and
clear between and near normal temperatures. For southwest alaska,
the same frequency of systems exists, but more rain and above
normal temperatures.

A new front and developing triple-point low pressure system enters
the gulf from the north pacific ocean. Guidance has come into much
better agreement with timing and track of the system, taking it
right up to middleton island by Saturday morning. The front
associated with the system looks to push all the way up cook inlet
and across the north gulf coast, even into the copper river basin.

All these areas should see snow spreading from south to north late
Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow should end by the
afternoon hours, returning the area back to a colder outflow gap
wind pattern heading into next week.

Early next week, the upper pattern remains very progressive from
the southwest. While exact timing of each embedded system is not
feasible at this time, we can expect a new system to traverse the
area about every other day. At this time it looks like Mon Wed fri
for snow chances over the area. The bulk of the warm air stays
south in the gulf, but guidance is hinting at a more amplified
pattern late next week, which could bring a brief warm-up,
however, the pattern remains progressive W o any intact warm
frontal passage.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 111 145.

Marine... Gale 119-125 127 130 131 170 173-179 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bc
southcentral alaska... Jr
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Mtl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 30 mi57 min 40°F2 ft
HMSA2 33 mi33 min WSW 5.1 G 8 34°F 1022.9 hPa31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 33 mi65 min NNE 4.1 35°F 1022 hPa33°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 40 mi47 min 40°F1022.9 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi35 min NNE 6 G 6 21°F 1024.2 hPa20°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 49 mi47 min ENE 1 G 2.9 23°F 29°F1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK29 mi42 minW 310.00 miOvercast34°F32°F92%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3SE4NE3NE3CalmNE4NW3CalmNE3CalmW8W5NW4SW3NE3CalmCalmCalmSW5CalmW4W3
1 day agoCalmW5SW4NE4NE4NE5NE4NE6NE3CalmSE6E3S3SE5CalmNE4E4N3W3W6SW7CalmCalmNE6
2 days ago--E5E5NE9E11NE5CalmCalmW6CalmE6E13E11NE8NE7CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4E4CalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
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Thu -- 01:02 AM AKST     3.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:05 AM AKST     18.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:50 PM AKST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:56 PM AKST     15.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.24.27.211.114.817.518.617.915.512.18.45.232.43.76.49.612.614.615.414.612.59.9

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:28 AM AKST     2.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:53 AM AKST     17.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM AKST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM AKST     14.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.25.18.411.91517.117.816.613.910.26.63.72.32.64.57.310.112.614.214.513.411.18.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.