Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:50AMSunset 6:38PM Thursday October 18, 2018 6:43 PM AKDT (02:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 346 Pm Akdt Thu Oct 18 2018
.storm warning tonight...
Tonight..N wind 40 kt becoming ne 50 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
Fri..N wind 45 kt becoming nw 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sat night..NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Sun..E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Mon through Tue..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190050
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
450 pm akdt Thu oct 18 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level long wave trough fills most of the bering sea and
southern alaska today. The closed low still sits near the center
of the trough in the eastern bering while the trough digs into the
north pacific. There are several shortwaves embedded in the flow
of the trough, most notably along the gulf of alaska coastline.

This shortwave is associated with a band of higher vorticity and
instability which encompasses much of the western gulf. Behind the
trough, the weak ridge that once Sat over the central aleutians
is being whittled away as the next upper level low is moving in
from the west. This low is starting to deepen as it sits in a
favorable position of the jet stream which is arching just south
of the western aleutians.

At the surface, ridging in the eastern gulf is advecting warm air
in from the south. This, combined with cooler air aloft, the
short wave trough, and relatively warm sea surface temperatures,
has caused the atmosphere to become unstable. The instability is
leading to convective storms to form along the north gulf coast
and showers to push inland over southcentral. Satellite imagery is
picking up on the boundary between the cool and warmer air masses
with more scattered cloud cover on the leading edge of the warm
front and a stratus deck behind it. With the east being fairly
active, western and southwestern alaska is relatively calm. The
occluded front associated with the eastern bering low continues to
decay while a front connected to the kamchatka low slowly moves
eastward over the western aleutians.

Model discussion
Models have come into good synoptic agreement and have locked
onto a track for a low pressure system stemming from the pacific.

The one notable change from yesterday is that all models are now
bringing the low inland after moving through prince william sound.

Previous runs were bringing the low over the kenai peninsula.

This is a small difference, but it will have an impact on the
eastern kenai peninsula and prince william sound forecasts.

The next low that will move into the western gulf to eastern
bering sea this weekend has a tighter solution between the models
which is a big improvement from yesterday. The most likely track
now looks to be right over kodiak island Saturday night and then
into the bristol bay region.

Models are also handling the kamchatka low well early in the
period. Models begin to diverge on Saturday as there becomes a
spread in the low center. The ec leads the pack with the NAM being
the slowest of the solutions. This pattern continues through
Sunday.

Aviation
Panc... Winds will remain northerly and increase as the night goes
on, diminishing late Friday morning. Rain will begin Friday
morning, butVFR conditions are expected.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (today through Saturday)
A strong storm will bring gusty winds and heavy rain across the
gulf and surrounding coasts tonight and Friday then pushes inland
Friday night. The surface low is expected to deepen to 965 mb as
is moves across the central gulf Friday morning, so expect
directional wind shifts through Friday night. The heaviest
precipitation with this system will be along prince william sound
and the northeast gulf with rainfall amounts amounts between 3 to
5 inches. Another precipitation challenge with this system will be
snow as freezing levels decrease Friday into Saturday. The most
likely areas to see snowfall will be along the western copper
river valley and along the ranges across all of southcentral.

Then next system quickly follows with a warm front pushing into
the southern gulf Saturday afternoon. The associated low deepens
to 970 mb as it tracks to kodiak island Sunday morning, then fills
as it moves inland over bristol bay during the afternoon. The
highest precipitation accumulations with this storm will be along
the eastern kenai and prince william sound locations with amounts
up to 4 inches, although locally higher amounts are possible.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Thursday
night through Sunday)...

showers associated with the weakening low over bristol bay will
taper off this evening. As the low in bristol bay weakens, a
strong low moving into the gulf of alaska will attempt to push
moisture over the aleutian alaska ranges. Based on a further east
storm track, we do not expect moisture to move as far west as we
did yesterday. The low in the gulf of alaska will also induce
northeast flow for the kuskokwim valley tonight into tomorrow,
which will actually scatter skies out and create drying
conditions for the area. This will lead to some patchy valley fog
tonight, especially along waterways. This flow will also cool
temperatures to around freezing overnight Friday into Saturday
making it possible for a rain snow mix when moisture works its way
back into the area Friday night into Saturday morning.

Precipitation is then expected to transition back to rain as
warming temperatures and cloud cover move back into the area.

On Sunday, the next low pressure system will move into the gulf
of alaska, with the low center located south of kodiak island.

With increasing confidence in the storm track, we have increased
winds and precipitation for the alaska peninsula bristol bay
area.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through
3 Thursday night through Sunday)...

in the bering sea, the low that has been generally in place will
continue to spin slowly southeast and weaken into an elongated
trough overnight tonight. Northwest winds at about 25kts on the
backside of this low will continue until the low dissipates. Some
funneling of winds is expected to occur on the south side of the
eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula as well. A low moving into
the gulf of alaska tomorrow will shift winds to a general
northwest direction the next couple of days, with just some rain
showers present. A shortwave ridge moving through the central
aleutians will keep that region relatively quiet.

Meanwhile, a large low pressure system will push into the western
aleutians tonight. The strong southerly winds ahead of this system
will push east tonight, weakening as they do. Winds at shemya were
stronger than initially forecast in this band of wind, so
strengthened them slightly and slowed their weakening until
tomorrow. The low will slide south of the aleutians the next
couple of days, keeping the strongest winds out of our forecast
area. Enough instability is present in this system that we kept
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for the western
aleutians.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Sunday night through
Thursday)...

Sunday night starts off with the remnants of the low slowly
diminishing overnight. Onshore southeasterly flow is likely along
the entirety of the gulf coast as the low center moves into
southwest alaska and slows its northwestward movement
significantly. Unfortunately for areas such as seward and the
eastern kenai peninsula, this will allow the associated rainfall
to continue through much of the overnight and into at least the
first part of the day on Monday. However, rainfall rates will be
diminishing throughout the night as the parent low quickly
weakens. The low's westward track will bring in a renewed slug of
warm air causing wintry precipitation to remain confined to
higher elevations. Rain will persist with diminishing rates
across portions of bristol bay and the lower kuskokwim valley on
Monday. The low will also help to draw colder air southward
across the bering on Tuesday, which may threaten the pribilofs
with some snow showers.

Turning back to the east on Tuesday, the models are coming into
much better agreement compared with yesterday's runs concerning
the development of another strong low in the gulf. As expected,
there is still plenty of disagreement on the details, but all are
showing at least a gale force low, with perhaps storm force winds
in localized areas. It looks to develop over the southeastern
gulf and track northwestward, reaching the central gulf Tuesday
afternoon, then moving into the eastern kenai peninsula Tuesday
evening. Along this track, moderate to heavy rain at times will
overspread much of the gulf coast starting Tuesday morning and
then diminish Tuesday night. At the time of this forecast, this
storm does not look to have the same moisture feed as the Sunday
storm. Thus, while excessive rainfall amounts are not expected
anywhere, being the latest in this train of storms will not help
any ongoing flooding concerns in places like seward.

In similar fashion to Sunday night behind the storm Tuesday night,
onshore flow and continued upslope rain will persist through the
day along much of the gulf coast. The low will leave nearly all
of its moisture along the coast, with relatively little expected
to make it inland. What the low will do out west however, is help
to draw increasingly colder air southward out of russia into the
bering. As a result, snow showers become increasingly likely as
far south as the aleutians Wednesday and Wednesday night. By
Thursday, the models hint at... Guess what... Another strong low
tracking northward out of the pacific into the gulf, but by that
time uncertainties are very high. There is also growing consensus
that some of the cold air over the bering getting into southwest
alaska, particularly the delta on Thursday, may produce some
below average temperatures somewhere in the area for a change.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 119 120 130>132 139.

Gale warning 125 127 136>138 140 141 150.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Bb
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 36 mi31 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 46°F 1007 hPa39°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 37 mi73 min E 2.9 1007 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi43 min 49°F2 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi43 min NE 6 G 8.9 51°F 50°F1009.5 hPa (-2.0)
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi43 min N 14 G 15 47°F 1009.4 hPa (-1.8)44°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi43 min 49°F1006.9 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi50 minNE 610.00 miFair48°F39°F71%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE3NE3E3NE5E3N3CalmN3E3CalmE3CalmCalmNE5E3NE6NE5E6E6E11NE8E10NE6
1 day agoE4NE4E3E3CalmCalmSE4CalmS4NE3E4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE5E4CalmNE4
2 days agoCalmCalmW3W7W3W3CalmNE4NE7NE4NE5E8NE4CalmNE5SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
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Thu -- 01:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM AKDT     5.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:18 PM AKDT     15.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 PM AKDT     7.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM AKDT     14.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1311.7108.16.45.45.25.97.59.812.314.215.114.913.912.210.28.57.77.78.710.612.714.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 AM AKDT     5.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:18 PM AKDT     15.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 PM AKDT     7.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM AKDT     14.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1311.69.986.45.55.46.27.810.112.514.315.114.913.912.110.18.57.889.110.912.814.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.