Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:50PM Thursday April 25, 2019 4:13 PM AKDT (00:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:16AMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 256 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Tonight..N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sat and Sat night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Tue..N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251609 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
434 am akdt Thu apr 25 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low remains centered southeast of kodiak
island. The associated occluded front continues to bring
precipitation to the northern gulf coast, with scattered showers
in the cold air mass behind the front. As southwest alaska is
positioned on the back side of the low, offshore flow with cold
surface conditions continues. Looking even farther west, a ridge
building over the bering is maintaining mostly quiet weather over
the bering and aleutians, while a shortwave diving down the east
side of the ridge has brought some showers to the pribilof islands.

Model discussion Models are in generally good agreement, but
differ
somewhat on the secondary low that will rotate around the kodiak
low into prince william sound. The uncertainty in the track
impacts confidence in the wind forecast, but it's most likely
that the strongest winds will be a swath of gales in the
southeastern gulf.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The large low complex over the western gulf of alaska will exit
eastward today and tonight, with the occluded front currently
along the north gulf coast weakening as a result. Thus, rain and
snow in and around prince william sound will diminish this
afternoon and evening. A few showers could survive the journey
across the chugach and kenai mountains, but expect most of the
remainder of southcentral to remain dry.

Offshore flow will strengthen in the wake of the low tonight and
persist through Friday. This along with abundant sunshine will
lead to warmer temperatures, with high temperatures rising back
into the 50s for most inland areas. An upper level low will drop
through the area, but dry low levels will prevent formation of
showers, except for perhaps an isolated shower over the mountains.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Generally fair skies are expected over much of southwest through
Saturday as high pressure approaches from the west. As such, the
diurnal range is expected to increase with lows near or below 20
and highs in the mid 40s, to near 50 in some areas by the
weekend.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
High pressure will dominate the bering today, bringing light and
variable winds and calm seas to the entire region. A strong low
tracking northward over the kamchatka peninsula is expected to
briefly bring gale force winds and moderate rain to the western
aleutians early Friday morning. Precipitation will slightly
diminish thereafter as the associated front occludes, but will
then restrengthen again on Saturday as another low approaches from
the southwest.

A low will move northward in the central pacific today and its
northern fringes will approach the eastern aleutians by Friday
morning. As latest model runs indicate a more northerly track
than previous runs, gusty winds and or rain appear more likely for
areas east of and including cold bay by Saturday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
The main difference in thinking from yesterday is that the storm
track in the bering sea looks to be moving eastward a little
faster. The impact of this will be that gales will move through
the central and western bering sea through the weekend instead of
mainly just the western bering sea.

The main action in the gulf will be the possibility of gales
right around kodiak island in conjunction with a front Saturday
night. A ridge should remain in the central gulf through the
weekend which will keep winds and seas down for the rest of the
gulf, but tighten the gradient bringing stronger winds near
kodiak.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Friday night, the cold low that has been residing over
southern alaska for over a week will still be over the prince
william sound and copper river basin regions with an upper level
ridge building strongly into the eastern bering sea. This should
start the weekend out with a bit of sunny weather over southwest
alaska and southcentral alaska west of the chugach and talkeetna
mountains. Over these mountains and farther eastward, the cold air
aloft will likely keep the snow showers around a bit longer. The
ridge will push over the region through Sunday but by Sunday night
the main ridge axis will be over the alcan border and this is
when the uncertainty really starts to creep in. A front with quite
a bit of moisture will try and slide into the western gulf by
Sunday and then over the mainland. The interaction between this
front and the ridge will be key to the weather early next week. At
this time it does look increasingly likely that southwest
mainland alaska will see precipitation (probably mostly rain), but
southcentral will be on the edge. The kenai, anchorage and mat-su
valleys will be on the edge of this system so results could range
anywhere from mostly sunny to periods of rain as the boundary
between the rain and ample sunshine will probably be fairly
abrupt. Regardless, warmer temperatures will move over
southcentral and southwest mainland alaska by this weekend and
continuing into next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales: 119 172 178 411
fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mm
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Ez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 36 mi31 min SW 6 G 9.9 41°F 1018 hPa30°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 37 mi103 min W 4.1 41°F 1017 hPa31°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi73 min 43°F2 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi43 min NNE 9.9 G 14 46°F 39°F1019.1 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi43 min 43°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi20 minSW 610.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE14
G20
E11NE13NE10E11NE9E9NE5CalmN3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E5E4E44S4SW6SW6
1 day agoW10
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W9SW12SW8W7CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE5NE4NE6NE4NE4NE5E8E7NE9E12NE9N13N14
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W13W8W10W8W74W6SW8SW10W7SW8SW7SW10SW9SW9SW9W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM AKDT     5.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM AKDT     16.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:39 PM AKDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:05 PM AKDT     14.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.36.25.36.28.711.814.616.416.515.112.79.66.53.92.32.13.45.98.811.713.914.814.413

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM AKDT     5.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM AKDT     16.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:29 PM AKDT     2.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:05 PM AKDT     14.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.26.15.56.79.112.114.716.416.515.112.69.56.43.82.32.43.96.39.111.91414.814.312.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.