Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:53AMSunset 11:18PM Monday July 16, 2018 9:45 PM AKDT (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:36AMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 345 Pm Akdt Mon Jul 16 2018
Tonight..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu through Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 170045
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
445 pm akdt Mon jul 16 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A large long wave upper trough extends south across the mainland.

This is helping to kick off showers across across much of the
southcentral mainland and over the eastern kuskokwim valley and
bristol bay. The airmass over the eastern bering sea and coastal
southwest alaska is more stable which is evidenced by the presence
of low stratus, patchy fog, and drizzle light rain. Satellite
imagery shows cloud breaks over the talkeetna mountains and copper
river basin which is aiding surface heating. Satellite imagery
also shows convection initiation in the aforementioned areas which
will be the location of a few afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

Further west, a weak surface low is located near attu island with
the leading edge of the front just west of adak. General areas of
rain are evident over the western central aleutians with gusty
southeast winds along the leading edge of the front.

Model discussion
Models are overall in fair synoptic agreement through the short
term.

Aviation
Panc... GenerallyVFR showers are expected through Tuesday morning.

Gusty southeast winds are expected over the airport complex this
afternoon through around midnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A low amplitude shortwave trough is moving into southcentral from
the northwest coast of alaska. This feature is inciting an up-
inlet southwest flow which is helping to spark showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the susitna valley northern kenai
peninsula and along the interior mountains. This will turn to
steady showers rain across parts of the northern susitna valley
and into the western copper basin overnight as the trough moves
eastward. This system will clear into canada Tuesday evening with
weak offshore flow developing. This should allow for dramatically
warmer weather Wednesday as an upper ridge builds in behind the
trough. This warm and dry weather will then persist through the
remainder of the week.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Showers will linger over higher elevations tonight as a weak wave
moves over the area from the northwest. On Tuesday, ridging will
build in from the bering working to clear out cloud cover over
inland locations allowing for warmer temps in the afternoon. The
ridging will remain dominant over southwest alaska into Thursday
as it slowly tracks east.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Ridging over the eastern aleutians extends out over the eastern
and northern bering as it moves to the east. A low and associated
front are following behind the ridging and will move into the
southern bering before upper level flow pushes the system south
across the aleutians early on Wednesday. This system looks to
bring rain to the aleutians as it slowly moves through the area.

Behind this system more ridging will build in over the western
aleutians ahead of another front that will move over the islands
Wednesday. The front will track into the central bering Thursday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Thursday through Monday)
The models are in very good agreement for the first part of the
long-term forecast. The upper levels will feature an omega block
pattern with two closed lows, one will be south of dutch harbor,
and the other over the southern panhandle. Strong upper level
ridging will be in place across the area in between, encompassing
essentially all of southern mainland alaska. This pattern will
persist into at least Saturday as the upper level ridge
strengthens and builds eastward while the low out west opens up
into a broad trough. On Saturday as the ridge moves eastward,
chances for precipitation will increase across southwest alaska by
the afternoon. By Sunday the models disagree with how wet it will
be across southwest alaska, depending upon small features that
are very difficult to resolve this far out, but there is somewhat
better agreement that Monday too will be a wet day.

For southcentral, essentially the entire long-term forecast will
feature bone dry weather as the aforementioned upper level ridging
builds in. Afternoon convection will become increasingly likely,
especially by Monday for areas north and west of anchorage, but
otherwise the primary weather hazard will be low stratus and fog
along the coast. The upper level ridging will also promote a
steady warming trend across southcentral, with highs in the 70s
for all valley locations away from the coast increasingly likely
from Friday onward. Some 80 degree readings are possible over the
copper river basin by Sunday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 36 mi14 min SW 8.9 G 15 56°F 1015.2 hPa46°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 37 mi76 min W 16 1014 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi46 min 48°F2 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi34 min SSW 18 G 21 56°F 55°F1013.8 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi16 min S 13 G 15 52°F 1013.2 hPa49°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi34 min 49°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi53 minSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds56°F48°F75%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSW8SW6W6SW14SW13SW14SW13SW14SW15SW12SW12SW9SW9SW10
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W4W5W5SW5SW5SW6S3S6SW6S3SW9SW11SW11W5SW8W7W4
2 days agoW4NW3CalmNE3NE3N4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSW4SW6SW6SW5SW5W5SW5W4CalmSW5

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:10 AM AKDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM AKDT     20.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:34 PM AKDT     -2.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM AKDT     20.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.40.61.75.410.415.519.320.51915.610.75.40.7-2-2.20.65.511.116.319.620.218.51510.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:01 AM AKDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM AKDT     20.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:24 PM AKDT     -2.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM AKDT     20.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.20.82.261115.819.320.41915.410.450.4-2.1-1.81.36.111.616.519.620.218.414.810.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.