Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:39 PM AKDT (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 355 Pm Akdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Tue and Tue night..N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Thu..NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 270025
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
425 pm akdt Sun mar 26 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low over alaska extending into the western
gulf. At the lower levels there is an inverted trough over the
western gulf, with some moisture and showers over the gulf and
along the gulf coast. There is another upper low south of the
eastern aleutians moving slowly towards the north. There is a
fairly strong and vertically stacked 976 mb surface low associated
with that upper low. Precipitation (mostly rain) from this low
stretches across the aleutians. An upper level high is over the
bering sea, with east-northeast flow at the lower levels.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in decent agreement through the short
term portion of the forecast (Tuesday afternoon). There are some
differences in how they handle lows that move northward through
the gulf, one tonight into Monday, and another Monday night into
Tuesday. The canadian gem is the fastest with both of these lows.

The NAM and ECMWF were the preferred models. Forecast confidence
is near normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The start of the week will feature a gradual change in the pattern
as the longwave trough sitting over the mainland retrogrades
slightly westward and allows onshore flow to become focused along
the north gulf coast. A surface low rotating northwestward
through the gulf will move to the vicinity of seward by Monday
afternoon, bringing widespread snow showers to the gulf coast and
initially spreading increased cloud cover over inland parts of
southcentral. Snow will likely be very convective in nature owing
to steep mid level lapse rates, which could support significant
accumulations over portions of western prince william sound as
well as portage valley and turnagain pass through Tuesday
morning. There is lower confidence on whether or not any snow will
make it across the coastal mountain ranges, but the combination
of a lack of initial downslope flow and a weak upper wave lifting
northward suggest at least a chance that anchorage will see snow
showers for the first time in several weeks.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Much more of the same weather expected through Wednesday evening.

A system backing into the area Monday night from the gulf of
alaska will bring some cloud cover over far eastern portions of
the mainland, mainly near the alaska range. Some light snow is
possible in the same area, but currently a pretty low confidence
solution. Otherwise expect light northerly winds with below
average temperatures.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A gale-force front nudges up to the central aleutians this
evening. Precipitation associated with the front will likely stay
south of the chain as well, but a few local sprinkles or flurries
remain possible in the unalaska area. Otherwise, broad but
steadily weakening northerly to easterly flow will remain over
the bering.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The only significant change to the long range was to increase the
pops along the north gulf coast and prince william sound into the
copper river basin Tuesday night and Wednesday. A surface low is
moving from the gulf into prince william sound beginning Tuesday
supported by an upper level low. The models continue to hold the
precipitation along and east of the kenai and chugach mountains.

Over the bering sea, aleutians and western alaska we will see a
big pattern change by the middle to end of this week as a large
potent low will move toward the alaska peninsula Thursday and
Friday. The models are in good overall agreement with this
solution through Friday. The latest model run does begin to
converge on this low moving over the southwest mainland Saturday,
although the position and intensity of the low vary a bit. Models
are struggling to converge on a solution for the location and
intensity of a low south of the aleutians. At this point we stuck
with nudging the current forecast toward the ensemble solution
making minor changes to the forecast.

Overall the pattern is shifting and will bring a more active
weather pattern and likely warmer temperatures to the southern
mainland and alaska peninsula.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 155 172 174
heavy freezing spray 185
synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Cb
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Mtl
long term... Sa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi61 min 37°F2 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi51 min NNE 7 G 8 29°F 1003.2 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi39 min N 5.1 G 6 30°F 1004.1 hPa (-1.3)5°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi51 min 37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi46 minNNE 610.00 miFair36°F14°F40%1001.8 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N4N3CalmCalmCalmN4NE3NE4N3CalmNE5NE8NE8NE7E6E5E7E4E5E8E8E9NE6
1 day agoN4NE3N4NE6NE5N5N5E3N4NE4NE6NE8NE7NE7NE11NE9NE5E6E10E11E9NE8E6NE5
2 days agoN4CalmN6E4CalmNE4N3N4CalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE5NE8NE6CalmNE6E4E7N9E10NE9N7

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:34 AM AKDT     20.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM AKDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:44 PM AKDT     21.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM AKDT     New Moon
Mon -- 08:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM AKDT     -1.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.41217.120.220.518.414.59.44.40.7-0.61.15.511.216.720.421.319.415.510.24.70.3-1.9-0.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:34 AM AKDT     20.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM AKDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:44 PM AKDT     21.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM AKDT     New Moon
Mon -- 08:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:04 PM AKDT     -1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
712.417.320.220.518.314.2940.5-0.41.86.211.81720.521.219.315.29.84.3-0-1.7-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.