Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:19AMSunset 4:11PM Monday November 20, 2017 4:30 AM AKST (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 5:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 351 Am Akst Mon Nov 20 2017
.gale warning today...
Today..NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..NE wind 15 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu through Fri..N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200148
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
448 pm akst Sun nov 19 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A strong short-wave trough continues to dig south of kodiak island,
supported by a 160 kt upper level jet streak diving southward
across the eastern bering sea on the front side of a high amplitude
ridge. Cold air advection across the eastern bering and alaska
peninsula is leading to widespread strong gusty winds, with near
warning level winds (75 mph) being observed through channeled
areas along the southern alaska peninsula and eastern aleutians.

Even colder "arctic" air over northern alaska and the northern
bering sea is poised to advect southward through this same corridor
as an upper level low over interior southwest weakens and gives
way to a strengthening low over the gulf.

Out ahead of the trough light snow has been falling across nearly
all of southcentral alaska today. However, snow is beginning to
lighten up and taper off as energy is transferred down to the
gulf and low level offshore flow strengthens. Gusty northerly
winds along cook inlet are also leading to blowing snow and
significantly reduced visibilities across portions of the western
kenai peninsula. Conditions will improve here as the snow lightens.

Kodiak island is in a precarious position right along the upper
trough axis and just west of the developing surface low over the
gulf. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 30s, but cold
air advecting in from the west will cool the shallow above
freezing layer near the surface and change precipitation to snow.

Heavier bands of snow will approach from the gulf as the low
deepens, likely affecting the northeast end of the island,
including kodiak city. However, the relatively warm surface
temperatures will limit blowing snow.

Model discussion
Overall, model guidance is in very good agreement with large scale
features. The primary forecast challenge in the short-term is
determining how much precip from the gulf low will make it to
kodiak island and how quickly surface temperatures will fall
once snow develops. All guidance indicates some wobbles in the
low as it develops and tracks southward, so will need to keep an
eye on satellite imagery to track heavier bands of snow.

Aviation
Panc... Ceilings and visibility will steadily improve this
evening as snow ends and northerly low level flow strengthens.

The winds should keep any fog or stratus from forming, which often
occurs in the wake of fresh snow. Cold air advection will
increase on Monday and though not strong, it looks like just
enough to help mix down stronger winds from aloft to the surface.

Thus, have trended up with the wind forecast.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
The front across southcentral slides to the gulf this evening
bringing snow to an end across inland locations. A triple point
surface low which developed along the western gulf this afternoon
deepens tonight as a strong upper level wave rounds the base of
the mid level trough. This strong wave closes off a new center
over the southern gulf waters tonight keeping mixed precipitation
across the gulf with a few showers moving into coastal locations
through early Monday morning. Skies will clear on Monday from west
to east across the mainland as subsidence occurs along a ridge
shifting in from the bering. The main forecast challenge on Monday
surrounds the strength and timing of wind speeds across channeled
terrain as offshore flow develops in the wake of the low. Only
minor changes were made to increase speeds across the matanuska
valley and keep slightly higher gusts through midnight for
thompson pass as a jet streak moves overhead while an upper level
wave moves east from the chugach mountains. Tuesday will be
relatively quiet across the region as the low in the gulf moves
further southeast.

Kodiak and the gulf waters... Updated the forecast to take out
the winter weather advisory as snow amounts are not expected to be
as high as previously expected. Snow remains in the forecast
through Monday as a developing shortwave moves from the southwest
to the western gulf, however snow accumulations were lowered.

Snow will taper off Monday night as the low pressure system slides
to the south.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The low pressure system that brought snow, freezing rain, and
strong winds to the area will continue to move off to the
southeast into the gulf of alaska tonight. A few remaining snow
showers over the kuskokwim delta and higher terrain to the east will
taper off this evening. Cold air and strong winds will filter
down from the north on the backside of the low, which could lead
to some areas of blowing snow where light powdery snow had
previously accumulated, especially inland areas to the north.

Along the western capes, strong northerly winds with gusts to
40-50 mph will continue as a low level jet just to the west over
the bering straight moves through the area.

By tomorrow, a transitory upper level ridge moves in bringing
clearing skies and diminishing winds, though temperatures will
drop to their lowest levels of the season at some locations.

Cloud cover will increase again by Monday night as the next system
approaches from the northwest bringing another round of
precipitation and windy conditions on Tuesday. This system looks
to be a bit weaker than its predecessor, though snow should fall
across most areas with rain still likely along the western capes.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Strong winds will continue tonight along the eastern bering and
aleutians as a northerly low level jet descends through the bering
strait. Aided by a 160 kt jet streak at 300 mb and mid level cold
air advection from the arctic, winds will mix down and accelerate
through channeled areas and terrain gaps leading to gusts up to
75 mph from dutch harbor east. Winds will quickly diminish tonight
and tomorrow morning as an upper level ridge moves over the
eastern bering. Therefore, no changes were made to the current
high wind warnings and are on track to expire at midnight for
dutch harbor and 6 am for cold bay
further west, another system approaches as a strong warm front
attached to a low anchored over eastern russia sweeps northeast across
the western bering aleutians bringing rain and gale force winds to
the area tonight through tomorrow night. The pattern continues as
high pressure builds in rapidly behind the departing system
bringing a quick relief in the active weather before another
strong low pushes in from the southwest Tuesday night. This storm
is progged to rapidly deepen as it moves across the bering on
Wednesday and looks to be the makings of a possible strong winter
storm late this week for the eastern bering and southwest mainland.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
On Tuesday, a low well north of the arctic circle will bring a
front through the southern portion of the mainland, with a brief
shot of snow for the entire region and some short lived outflow
winds for the southcentral area. Tuesday night and Wednesday will
be the literal calm before the storm for most of the state, as a
low pressure system enters the western bering late Tuesday night
and strengthens rapidly as it crosses the bering.

Models have been relatively consistent with the track of this
storm varying a little to the south over the past day. Current
forecast is for the low to cross the northern bering and move
onshore near nunivak island late Wednesday night, before moving
southeastward over the kuskowim delta and bristol bay before
heading into the gulf on Thursday night. It is still expected to
be a storm force low and significant winds and waves are currently
in the forecast for the bering sea... With some concern for high
winds and seas in the bristol bay region on Wednesday. Behind this
storm another northwesterly punch will bring high winds for the
pribilofs and the ak pen, not unlike the pattern from this
weekend. As the storm moves into the gulf, northwesterly outflow
winds will again be the concern for southcentral on Friday. On
Saturday, the pattern begins again with another low approaching
from the southwest, although this system appears to take a more
northerly track along the kamchatka peninsula, hopefully lessening
the wind and wave threat in alaska for next weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning 181 185.

Marine... Gale 127 130 138 139 160 173 174 178 179 181 185.

Storm 119 120 131-137 150 155 165-172 180.

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi53 min 46°F3 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi43 min NE 20 G 25 31°F 38°F1000.8 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi31 min NNW 12 G 13 27°F 1002.1 hPa (+1.9)12°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi43 min 45°F997.8 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi38 minENE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F19°F72%998.5 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE4NE6N4N3E8NE6NE8CalmNE6NE5NE5NE6N3E6NE8CalmNE7CalmN4N4NE6E7NE12
1 day agoNE5N4N5NE7NE7NE7NE3NE5E7NE3NE7CalmN4N3N4E7NE6NE4NE6NE7NE5NE3NE4NE4
2 days agoNW3NE3CalmCalmN4NE6NE3E3E5E5E5NE5N3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmN4NE3CalmNE4NE6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKST     19.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM AKST     3.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:13 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:43 PM AKST     20.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:24 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:36 PM AKST     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.58.713.917.919.618.816.212.48.34.93.34.27.712.316.819.920.618.915.510.96.11.8-0.7-0.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKST     19.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:18 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:01 AM AKST     3.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:13 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:43 PM AKST     20.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:24 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:26 PM AKST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.29.214.21819.618.816.112.284.73.44.88.312.817.12020.618.815.310.65.71.6-0.7-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.