Sunrise 4:54 AM   Sunset 10:58 PM Moonrise 5:52 PM   Moonset 2:26 AM

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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.Thu night - N wind 20 kt.Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt.Sun - N wind 20 kt.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 210050 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 450 PM AKDT Mon May 20 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska continues to weaken as it exits the region this evening. Some precipitation is possible in the eastern edge of the forecast area as the system meanders towards the Alaska Panhandle. Calmer conditions will persist across Southcentral through most of the overnight hours tonight before the next upper level low enters the area.

The front ahead of the next upper low, currently located in the eastern Bering, will start impacting Kodiak Island this evening before the rest of the extended front crosses over the Alaska Range later tonight. Widespread rain and snow will be seen over much of the area, with some locations receiving heavier rates of precipitation at times. Southwesterly flow aloft will allow the Anchorage Bowl to get some precipitation Tuesday afternoon as the front passes. Additionally, a building pressure gradient across much of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains will produce southerly gap winds near the Kamishak Gap, Turnagain and Knik Arms, and the Copper River Basin starting tomorrow morning and extending into Wednesday.

As the upper low continues to move eastward into the mainland, a secondary cold front will start extending out ahead of the low Wednesday into Thursday. This will cause temperatures to drop below normal for most locations, increasing the potential for snow to occur at some lower elevations as snow levels decrease. In recent model guidance, the upper low is trying to form a deformation band over the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Wednesday night which would produce increased precipitation totals for that part of the forecast area. A chance for rain and snow showers will persist through Thursday afternoon before the low starts to weaken and move eastward towards Canada.

-BS

.SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure system will continue to progress east- northeastward through tomorrow evening bringing a mix of rain and snow showers for Southwest Alaska, the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Its front that brought precipitation this morning and early afternoon will continue to move northward through the evening resulting in most of the precipitation in Alaska Peninsula ending later this afternoon. Overnight, a second wave of precipitation will move onshore bringing widespread rain/snow showers from Togiak-Dillingham-New Stuyahok northward to Mekoryuk-Lower Kalskag-Crooked Creek area. Shortly before daybreak break tomorrow, the heaviest precipitation is expected in Aniak-Crooked Creek south to Dillingham and eastward to King Salmon-Iliamna. This area of heavy precipitation will move slowly eastward through tomorrow afternoon and most of it will fall as a mix of rain/snow with cooler air filtering into the region. QPF amounts range from 0.25" to 0.75" across all of Southwest Alaska from today into tomorrow afternoon. Widespread low clouds and areas of fog are possible overnight and into tomorrow, too.

Westerly to southwesterly wind gusts will be strong in the Aleutians tomorrow from dawn through the late afternoon hours ranging from 30 to 40 mph. Elsewhere, localized southerly/southeasterly wind gusts through the Kamishak Bay will be strong tomorrow ranging from 30 to 40 mph for most of the morning hours; subsiding in the afternoon.

A weak ridge moves quickly through the Aleutians tomorrow morning, the Alaska Peninsula during the late morning morning and onshore in Southwest Alaska beginning early tomorrow afternoon bringing a short reprieve to the precipitation. A weak wave brings some precipitation to the Goodnews Bay/Togiak area tomorrow evening. A stronger low pressure moves through the Bering Sea Thursday evening through Friday bringing a return to moderate precipitation and gusty to gale force winds later this week.

DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Friday, an upper-level low over the eastern Bering drops across Southwest Alaska and into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. A trough sets up over the western coastline bringing possibly mixed rain and snow for the Western coastline and all rain elsewhere, primarily to Kodiak and the eastern Kenai. A high pressure ridge forms across the Bering before the next upper-level low consolidates and moves eastward from the vicinity of Attu Island on Monday.




AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A mild Turnagain Arm wind will develop and impact the terminal late this evening/early tonight, continuing overnight. The Turnagain Arm jet will strengthen further late Tuesday morning/early afternoon, with the strongest winds expected to remain away from the terminal. Confidence is relatively low as to how persistent the winds will be over the terminal, but the winds are likely to be swinging in and out of the terminal for much of the day Tuesday.
Ceilings will drop to 3500 to 5000 ft and may briefly reach MVFR criteria Tuesday afternoon.

-ME

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Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

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