Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:19AMSunset 4:11PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:27 AM AKST (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 351 Am Akst Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory today...
Today..N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue night..N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201424
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
524 am akst Mon nov 20 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The strong vertically stacked low in the southern gulf reached
its maximum depth early this morning and is now starting to move
south with the associated frontal system stretched across the
northern gulf following slowly south as well. With the exception
of kodiak island which the edge of the frontal system is
currently rotating across, precipitation is ending and skies
clearing across southern mainland alaska this morning with gusty
north to northeasterly outflow winds developing.

Over the alaska peninsula and the eastern aleutians, post frontal
cold air advection as well as strong northerly winds aloft have
been bringing strong north to northwesterly winds particularly
through channeled gaps and passes. Ridging is building over the
central aleutians and central bering ahead of a frontal system
pushing into the western aleutians.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement with regards to the deep low in the
gulf and the trough frontal system crossing the bering today and
tonight. The low crossing the bering on Wednesday however, offers
more challenges. While all the models agree that it will deepen
rapidly, significant differences persist in the track, timing and
strength as it turns southeast and tracks across southwest alaska
or along or offshore of the southwest alaska coast.

Aviation
Panc... Breezy northerly winds and dry offshore flow will keep
conditionsVFR at anc with high clouds clearing out this morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
A powerful storm force low over the gulf of alaska is showing an
impressive and well defined circulation on satellite as the low
wraps up into a beautiful occlusion. Some very light snow over the
southern copper basin continues this morning, but this will end
quickly as weak ridging builds in and offshore winds increase
today. This offshore wind event will tend to favor higher mountain
gaps near the coast with the strongest winds through thompson
pass. For inland locales, local winds should be much weaker, and
in some cases, local inversions may keep winds light and high
temperatures quite a bit lower today.

Shortwave ridging will begin to build into southcentral tonight,
allowing for weakening offshore winds and cold overnight low
temperatures. A shortwave trough in westerly flow will move into
the region Tuesday evening and overnight. However, the upper
trough will be weakening and shearing as it moves east, so snow
threats look minimal given the amount of low level dry air which
will be in place.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Breezy conditions will cause blowing snow concerns to persist
through through tonight, before the next system moves into the
region for Tuesday. Before that system arrives, short-wave
ridging aloft will move across the region Monday evening into
Tuesday morning, with clearing skies. Winds will generally remain
in the 15 to 35 mph range though, with blowing snow concerns
persisting. Cooler overnight lows will be another artifact of the
departing storm, as colder air continues to funnel in from the
north.

The next in a series of storms will begin to affect the region on
Tuesday, as a low passing by well to the north sends another cold
front across the region. Winds will become southerly ahead of
this feature with widespread light snow developing along the coast
by sunrise, spreading eastward through the day. Accumulations
will be light though with most locations seeing less than 3
inches, even across the interior. Drier conditions and decreasing
clouds return for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, before yet
another more potent storm arrives for your Wednesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Strong winds will persist for eastern portions of the akpen
and adjacent waters through late morning, with some gusts to 55
mph remaining possible. These winds will decrease through the
afternoon as a shortwave ridge across the west central aleutians
traverses the region through tomorrow morning.

Just like a scene from a movie you may know, a repeat scenario is
in store for your weather as we head into the Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning time frame. During this time, a 995 mb
low near shemya Tuesday evening will head northeast while
deepening. Patchy fog is possible along and south of an attendant
warm front, with widespread precipitation developing. This storm
looks to continue to strengthen heading into Wednesday with
increasing winds and precipitation coverage intensity.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
On Tuesday, a low well north of the arctic circle will bring a
front through the southern portion of the mainland, with a brief
shot of snow for the entire region and some short-lived outflow
winds for the southcentral area. Tuesday night and Wednesday will
be the literal calm before the storm for most of the state, as a
low pressure system enters the western bering late Tuesday night
and strengthens rapidly as it crosses the bering.

Models have been relatively consistent with the track of this
storm varying a little to the south over the past day. Current
forecast is for the low to cross the northern bering and move
onshore near nunivak island late Wednesday night, before moving
southeastward over the kuskokwim delta and bristol bay before
heading into the gulf on Thursday night. It is still expected to
be a storm force low and significant winds and waves are currently
in the forecast for the bering sea... With some concern for high
winds and seas in the bristol bay region on Wednesday. Behind
this storm another northwesterly punch will bring high winds for
the pribilofs and the ak pen, not unlike the pattern from this
weekend. As the storm moves into the gulf, northwesterly outflow
winds will again be the concern for southcentral on Friday. On
Saturday, the pattern begins again with another low approaching
from the southwest, although this system appears to take a more
northerly track along the kamchatka peninsula, hopefully lessening
the wind and wave threat in alaska for next weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 127 130 131 136 137 138 139 150 155
165 172 177 178 180 181 185.

Storm warning 132.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jer
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi40 min 47°F
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi28 min N 29 G 31 28°F 999.6 hPa (+3.6)19°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 77 mi38 min NNW 3.9 G 7.8 34°F 42°F1 ft1001.8 hPa (+2.5)26°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N17
G21
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N11
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NE5
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N8
G13
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E1
E3
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E3
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NE2
NE1
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SE1
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E2
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G6
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SE1
G5
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SE3
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SE1
E1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi35 minno data10.00 miA Few Clouds25°F16°F69%1000.8 hPa

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW3N3N4N10N13N11N15
G26
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N18
G25
N16
G25
N14
G22
N18
G26
N18
G30
N17
G24
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G21
----------------
1 day agoN14
G27
N10
G19
N12
G22
N11
G18
N13
G19
N11
G19
N19
G23
N14
G25
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G27
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G21
NE11
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N8N8N10N7N4NW3N3CalmCalmNW3N4
2 days agoN16
G23
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G23
NE14
G20
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G27
NW20
G30
NW16
G27
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G24
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N14
G21
N12
G24
N19
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NW23
G29
NW16
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N7
G15
N12
G21
N15
G24
N12
G22
N12
G27
NW16
G29
NW21
G31
NW19
G28
N21
G29
N11
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
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Seward
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM AKST     9.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM AKST     3.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:10 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:41 PM AKST     11.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:14 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:27 PM AKST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
78.99.79.58.46.64.83.53.34.15.77.99.911.211.410.58.563.20.9-0.3-0.313.1

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
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Aialik Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM AKST     9.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 AM AKST     3.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:10 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:41 PM AKST     11.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:30 PM AKST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.18.99.79.68.56.95.13.533.95.77.99.81111.310.48.66.23.51.1-0.3-0.31.13.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.