Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 10:07AMSunset 3:43PM Sunday December 16, 2018 6:32 PM AKST (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 350 Pm Akst Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Tonight..N wind 20 kt becoming sw 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
Mon..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..SW wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed through Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 170208
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
508 pm akst Sun dec 16 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low stationed over the lower kuskokwim delta is
extending a long wave trough over the eastern bering into the
gulf. This low is advecting cold and dry air over the eastern
bering and the kuskokwim delta on the backside of the low. Within
the flow around the trough, a northwesterly oriented short wave
pushes over the ak-pen and into the gulf. Coupled with this
shortwave is a band of increased vorticity encompassing the
western mainland, the ak-pen and spreading over kodiak island. A
surface front which is aligned with these two features is
tracking northward towards this low. A meso low is spinning in the
near the kenai peninsula this afternoon. This low, is bringing
heavy precipitation to the kenai peninsula, northern gulf coast,
into anchorage and the mat-su valleys.

Model discussion
The models are doing decent with the main synoptic features into
the mid-term but are struggling with the mesoscale. One area
where the differences in guidance have been an issue is with the
continuously changing snow forecasts around southcentral alaska
today. Guidance has shifted placement of the main band of
precipitation anywhere from near homer to around palmer. Run to
run consistency has also been a problem for most models with the
individual runs shifting each run. However, the GFS has
initialized better than most and was preferred.

Aviation
Panc... Winds look to stay light through the forecast period but
ceilings and visibilities will be primarily down through the
much of the night. There will be some breaks between bands of
snow where conditions will rise to nearVFR but overall lower
conditions are expected. Conditions will improve in the early
morning and should raise toVFR around noon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Mon and
tue)...

the day will start with the remnants of the big snow event
pushing through southcentral. After the moisture drifts west over
cook inlet, a strong shortwave will push it back through the
anchorage bowl in the morning hours. This will make for another
period of heavy snow in very early morning (3am) hours. This
shortwave wave will also usher in some serious cold air advection
dropping 850 mb (5,000') temperatures tumbling from -5c to -11c.

This could allow the event to come to an end with some light,
fluffy snow which may blow around a fair bit during the morning
commute. It could also allow for some gusty winds to blast across
cook inlet and shelikof strait from the w-nw. Besides a few
lingering snow showers (especially along the mountains), the rest
of the day Mon should bring a drying trend across the entire area.

Cold air moves in after the snow and will keep temperatures across
the region below freezing. So plan for the freshly fallen snow to
stick around.

The break in the action won't last long. Another storm system will
track towards prince william sound Tue afternoon into wed. This
could bring yet another shot of heavy snow to just about all of
southcentral, to include the anchorage bowl. This storm track has
proven notoriously tricky for exact low placement and timing over
the past month. So stay tuned as we refine the details with this
next event.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 Sunday
through Tuesday night)...

not much change to the forecast for the next few days, as the
upper level trough is still on track to bring a blast of arctic
air through the southwest mainland. Over land, winds will remain
light, which should limit concerns for winds chills in that area.

The western portions of the kuskokwim delta are seeing and will
continue to see strong northerly winds. For tonight, the limiting
factor will be that low-level cloud cover currently over the
k-delta, which is keeping temperatures a little higher to start
with. However, by tomorrow, flow will switch to be a little more
offshore, which should cause temperatures to drop, and wind chills
below -40f may be a concern for Monday and Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, a little bit of moisture will continue to sneak over
the aleutian range into the bristol bay region, which will bring
periods of light snow overnight, but no accumulation to speak of.

This will dissipate by tomorrow, bringing clearing skies and
sub 0f temperatures to bristol bay as well.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3 Sunday
through Tuesday night)...

northerly winds and snow showers continue to be the regime for the
eastern aleutians, bering sea, and ak pen as the upper level low
moves over the mainland. These showers are not expected to bring a
large amount of precipitation but should be fairly consistent over
the next three days. By Tuesday, a stronger system will approach
from the western aleutians, with the front moving into the central
aleutians Tuesday night. Right now the winds associated with this
front are expected to barely reach storm force, but not much
higher. Warming temperatures are expected with this front, which
will bring rain to the western aleutians through Tuesday night.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Wednesday, the cold upper level low will be centered over the
barren islands with an upper level trough and accompanying deep
cold air mass persisting over western alaska and the eastern
bering. Additional cold air over kodiak island and the western
gulf will rotate east and north to spread across the gulf and into
southcentral alaska as well, with troughs rotating around the
broader low continuing to bring additional periods of snow with
them. On Thursday, the upper low will stretch out to a trough and
lift north to be centered over prince william sound and northern
gulf with precipitation becoming more limited to these areas and
then tapering off Thursday night as the trough dissipates.

Over mainland alaska, a cold, elongated upper level low will
stretch across much of the state through Thursday night as a deep
north pacific low tracks well south of the western gulf. As the
north pacific low and an accompany frontal system turns to the
northeast and tracks towards the southern gulf Friday and
Saturday, the mainland upper trough will retrograde back to the
west to become centered over western alaska and the eastern
bering. Further to the west, a couple of developing lows will
track over the western aleutians Thursday through Friday morning,
followed by a third low tracking north and then west through the
central aleutians Friday night and Saturday.

For Sunday through the first half of next week, the large arctic
low will persist centered over the northern bering with cold upper
troughing extending into western alaska. Low pressure systems will
continue to rotate through the central and western aleutians.

While the main jet and stronger storm track will remain well south
of the gulf and directed at the pacific northwest, additional
troughs and weaker low pressure systems breaking off from this
will track north and rotate through the gulf as well through early
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 101 121 125 131 145.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray 160 180 181 185
gale 119 130 131 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk ra
southcentral alaska... Mso
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Lf
long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi39 min E 4.1 G 6 25°F 37°F974.5 hPa
APXA2 38 mi48 min 25°F 975 hPa23°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 41 mi33 min N 5.1 G 6 23°F 17°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi63 min NNE 5.1 973 hPa
HMSA2 44 mi21 min NNE 8 G 12 26°F 974.5 hPa21°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 47 mi33 min 44°F4 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi40 minN 01.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F21°F96%974.9 hPa

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Last 24hrNE6NE5NE5CalmCalmE3CalmN4NE3N3N3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN10N9N9NE5E7NE7NE8NE7NE9NE10NE12NE12NE9NE10NE10NE9NE10NE11NE12NE10NE10NE10NE9NE11
2 days agoNE4N6N6N5N8N10N8N11NE6NE8NE5N7NE8NE8NE6NE8NE8NE7NE8NE10NE11NE12NE8N8

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:34 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:20 AM AKST     4.89 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:45 AM AKST     16.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:16 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:35 PM AKST     5.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:05 PM AKST     13.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.57.55.955.26.78.911.413.915.61615.213.611.59.27.265.978.91112.913.813.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:10 AM AKST     5.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:45 AM AKST     16.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:16 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:25 PM AKST     6.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:05 PM AKST     13.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.57.55.95.15.57.19.311.71415.61615.213.511.49.17.26.16.27.49.211.21313.813.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.