Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 8:21PM Friday March 22, 2019 4:49 AM AKDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 308 Am Akdt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory today...
Today..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221246
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 am akdt Fri mar 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The longwave pattern features a high amplitude ridge that spans
from the central plains of the lower 48 and into the canadian
prairie, the yukon territory and the alaskan interior. Yesterday
the high temperature at fairbanks was 53f. Meanwhile, the longwave
trough spans from the coast of oregon across the central eastern
aleutians and into the northern bering. At the surface, there is
a mature low southwest of kodiak but the occluded front has moved
over the akpen and into the gulf of alaska. The latest
ascat advanced scatterometer data has detected gale force winds
south of the akpen and in portions of the northern bering. The
radars at middleton island (paih) and kenai (pahg) have been very
active overnight and early this morning.

Model discussion
The global models are in good agreement with the synoptic scale
features through 12z Sunday. Additionally, the GFS ensemble
members are tightly clustered with the high over chukchi sea, the
low south of the akpen and the low near kamchatka. There are some
minor differences with the areal coverage of the precipitation
shield over southwest ak and over portions of cook inlet. The
model of choice for the short term package again was the gfs. The
nam finally came in line with the GFS so there are no major
discrepancies in the short term.

Aviation
Panc... The kenai radar (pahg) has been in precipitation mode all
night and has detected precipitation near hope and near susitna.

During this time, light rain has been falling at panc and at the
wfo in anchorage. There is precipitation falling that is below the
radar beam. Any additional rain that does fall this morning is not
expected to reduce visibilities and the ceilings will vary from
7,000 to 5,000 feet.VFR conditions and light winds at the surface will
persist. However, wind shear is possible from 12z-19z today.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Temperatures over the area will continue to be well above normal
over the next couple of days with southerly flow aloft and rather
high 500 mb heights. A vertically stacked low centered south of
kodiak island will slowly move towards the northwest today,
crossing the upper alaska peninsula this afternoon. A front
associated with this low that stretches from the alaska range near
skwentna southeast across the northern gulf will remain nearly
stationary through tonight. Winds with this front are fairly
strong, but will weaken as the parent low moves into bristol bay.

On Saturday afternoon the front will begin to move northward into
the southcentral mainland as an upper level short-wave trough
slides northward. This trough and remnants of the front will then
push through southcentral Saturday night. Snow levels will drop a
bit as the air mass behind this trough is a little colder. Surface
temperatures in the valleys, however, will remain well above
normal.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Fri and sat)...

breezy and very warm conditions will persist to end the week. This
is all courtesy of a sprawling area of low pressure that is
crawling slowly towards the south side of the alaska peninsula. It
should cross over somewhere near chignik later this afternoon. It
is pushing gusty southeast winds (especially through the terrain
passes) across the entire area. It is also ushering an
unseasonably warm air mass for mid-march. High temperatures will
peak 10 to 15 degrees above normal once again today. Some showers
will be possible as this system pushes through, but nothing looks
overly heavy or organized. Just about all locations will continue
to rain (versus snow) expect for the higher mountains and the
northern tier of the yk-delta early today.

Saturday will see the low lift north along the coast and out of
the area. The net effect will actually be to allow temperatures
(at least daytime highs) to cool a few degrees and winds to relax
a bit. Some lingering showers of rain and snow could hang on
around the coast, but most inland areas will remain dry. The
exception would be the far eastern portion of the lower kuskokwim
valley where some moisture could sneak over the ak range and
create some light snow near the lime village area.

Towards the end of the weekend and into early next week, attention
will shift back towards the bering and the west coast as a few
strong fronts track towards SW ak.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Fri and
sat)...

two systems continue to be the major players for today. The first
is a bent back occlusion stretching from north to south from the
pribilof islands down to dutch harbor. The occlusion represents a
dividing line between warm air and southeast winds to the east,
and then cold and north winds to its west. Right along the
boundary, snow and blowing snow will continue this morning for the
pribilofs down through dutch harbor. A winter weather advisory
remains in effect for the pribilofs. Along this boundary, gale-
force northerly winds will also persist.

Further west, another area of gales are moving towards the western
bering. These are associated with an occluded warm front that
should make it to shemya this afternoon. As the precipitation
shield moves in, it should start as snow (with some limited
blowing snow possible as well) quickly transitioning to rain.

Sunday, this system will continue to trek east and take over the
bering. The leading front will sling gale force winds across the
domain, with the possibility of some stronger west to southwest
winds following the front.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Gulf of alaska... Expect generally benign conditions, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding as a low in the gulf of alaska
fills.

Bering sea... Confidence is high that a gale force low, with
potential will approach the western aleutians Sunday, bringing
heavy seas and widespread gales to the central bering and
aleutians Monday. Some model solutions depict a swath of storm
force winds in the central aleutians eastern bering Monday... While
we didn't have the confidence to go that high with this forecast
package, the potential for storms will need to be monitored. The
low will weaken and shift northward towards eastern siberia by
Tuesday and winds will diminish.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Wet weather will continue over southcentral as several waves
associated with a north pacific low rotate into the area. However,
confidence is building that dry weather is in sight for
southcentral. Models continue to develop a longwave ridge over
southcentral early next week. Daytime conditions will trend even
warmer than observed this week, though valley locations will
likely see cold nights driven by clear skies. The main question is
when the ridge will degrade, and model agreement is poor on that
decision. Some solutions show the ridge breaking down as early as
midweek, with a return to wetter weather following.

Looking farther west, a series of lows will move through the western
and central bering throughout the long term, starting with a
potent low expected to approach the western aleutians late Sunday.

With a moisture fetch almost to the tropics, expect heavy
precipitation ahead of the low. This low will be replaced by
another, much stronger (~950 mb) low moving quickly into the
bering mon. We will need to watch both of these systems closely
for potential coastal surf erosion impacts as sea ice continues to
diminish along the west coast. A ridge in place over southcentral
will likely diminish precipitation potential over the southwest
mainland. Showers in cold air advection will persist behind the
second low in the bering. A series of smaller lows will bring
periods of unsettled weather to the bering and aleutians through
next week, while conditions over the mainland will depend on the
progression of the upper ridge.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 195.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray 185. Gale 351 352 119 125 130 131
132 136 137 138 150 414 413 411 170 171 172 173 174 176 177 178
179 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mo
marine long term... Mm mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi37 min ESE 5.1 G 7 42°F 33°F997.9 hPa
APXA2 38 mi64 min E 6 39°F 995 hPa36°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 41 mi19 min NE 9.9 G 11 36°F 35°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi79 min ENE 20 41°F 993 hPa37°F
HMSA2 44 mi17 min ENE 29 G 39 39°F 993.9 hPa34°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 47 mi49 min 42°F2 ft

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi56 minESE 610.00 miOvercast42°F33°F71%997.8 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5NE9E8NE8NE5NE12NE12NE9NE11NE16NE14--N14N15N14NE15NE14N8N9N11NE4E12
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1 day agoN20N17NE15NE16N16NE18N18NE18NE12NE13N12N12N8E10NE8E8NE5NE7NE6CalmE6E7E9E7
2 days agoS8S12S16SW10SE7SE8S7SW9W4NW5NW8NW9N10N13N13N9N11N13N16N17N15N19
G26
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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
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Fri -- 04:50 AM AKDT     23.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:20 AM AKDT     -3.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM AKDT     22.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:37 PM AKDT     -3.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.73.610.617.32223.421.517.111.14.6-0.6-3.4-2.71.57.814.720.222.721.918.4136.81.1-2.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:51 AM AKDT     23.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:10 AM AKDT     -3.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM AKDT     22.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:27 PM AKDT     -2.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-14.411.217.722.123.421.416.910.64.1-1-3.3-2.12.38.615.120.322.721.918.212.66.30.7-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.