Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:40AMSunset 11:12PM Monday May 27, 2019 3:01 AM AKDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:57AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 350 Pm Akdt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Fri..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 270050
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
450 pm akdt Sun may 26 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A long fetch of moisture extending up from the north pacific is
continuing to bring rain to areas all around southcentral alaska.

The pattern that is causing this has a longwave trough extending
through the bering and aleutians into the pacific and ridging
that sits over the panhandle stretching along alaska's eastern
border. In between these two features is the setup for southerly
flow at all levels that extends from southcentral alaska well
south into the pacific. Multiple shortwaves are also moving
through this flow helping to enhance rainfall as they pass.

Model discussion
The models are in decent agreement with the main synoptic features
through the mid-term but are struggling with the small scale
issues. Specifically, guidance is struggling with rain around
southcentral and the effects of terrain. The hi-res models are
handling this significantly better and were preferred.

Aviation
Panc... The heaviest rain will start to diminish through the
evening resulting in higher ceilings, but as it does turnagain arm
winds will bend over the airport bringing gusty southeast winds
through much of the night. Early tomorrow morning the winds will
temporarily diminish, but then pick right back up in the
afternoon.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Sunday
night through Tuesday)...

the wet weekend continues mostly as expected. Rain has been falling
steadily for much of the day for most areas due to a steady steam
of moisture from the pacific. This can be observed on satellite
from as far south as california. This system has still been moving
at a good clip, so the heavier rain that was expected for later
this evening has been moved ahead in the forecast. The rain we
have been seeing today will continue to fall until around 6pm in
anchorage, then quickly taper to light rain showers for the
overnight hours. Enough rain has fallen that we have broken both
the daily precipitation record for 26 may at anchorage intl airport
as well as the record for total precipitation in the month of may.

The silver lining here is that due to its expected departure
overnight, those wanting to enjoy memorial day outside have a
chance to salvage their weekend tomorrow. Expect little more than
isolated to scattered showers throughout southcentral ak, with
most of the showers focused along the mountains. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy, but many areas will stay dry. Similar conditions
are expected for Tuesday, with perhaps a slight uptick in areal
extent of showers as a broad upper level short-wave approaches.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A rather unsettled pattern looks to continue through Tuesday, as
southwest alaska is affected by a mid-level low lifting northward
from the akpen this evening, to western alaska by Monday night.

Cyclonic flow currently in place aloft will persist, which allows
for prolonged moisture advection just above the surface, as winds
gradually veer from southeasterly to southerly.

On Tuesday, tonight's akpen low will be north of the region, and
a central aleutian low will be dropping south of the chain. However,
it'll still be close enough to allow for some weak disturbances
to transit the region from east to west, while afternoon heating
will allow enough instability to develop to help foster daytime
shower development.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
With a cyclonic flow regime in place, a slow-moving mid-level low
will continue to sink south from the southern bering towards the
central aleutians through Monday night. As it does so, another
mid-level system crossing the akpen this evening will head toward
norton sound in the southerly flow aloft to the east of the bering
storm. These two systems will combine forces (to some extent) to
allow for continued cloudy, relatively cool, and showery conditions
to persist through the next 24 hours. On Tuesday, the aleutian
low will continue to sink south, with a general decrease in
precipitation coverage expected.

Marine (Wednesday through Friday)
As a low approaches the alaska peninsula Tuesday night, winds
will begin to increase through shelikof strait, reaching minimum
gale force by Wednesday morning. Gales will extend to the barren
islands by Wednesday afternoon, however winds should diminish by
Thursday as the low begins to weaken.

Long term forecast (Wednesday through Saturday)
On Wednesday the upper level pattern will consist of a low
centered south of the alaska peninsula and eastern aleutians,
with an upper level high over central and northern mainland
alaska. Through Friday the location of the upper low will change
very little, just drifting slightly northeast. However, the high
will retreat a little northward, allowing progressively more
cyclonic flow over southern alaska as the longwave trough nudges
northward. Although there are model differences in the timing of
individual short-waves moving around the low, the forecast
confidence is above normal due to the stability of the pattern.

This will generally mean chances of rain and showers across the
area and through next week with temperatures near normal.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Bb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
marine long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi72 min N 14 G 19 47°F 48°F1 ft1012.4 hPa (+0.3)47°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi72 min 7.8 G 9.7 6 ft
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi38 min 47°F1011.1 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi69 minESE 11 G 224.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F44°F90%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm56W7W7W7W7
G14
SW7W45CalmE6E6E5E7E8E73E5

Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Alaska
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Chenega Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM AKDT     4.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM AKDT     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:53 PM AKDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:47 PM AKDT     8.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.55.6555.466.67.37.77.87.26.24.93.62.72.42.93.856.47.78.78.98.4

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:31 AM AKDT     4.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM AKDT     8.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:00 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:51 PM AKDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:49 PM AKDT     9.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.85.7555.56.26.97.78.28.37.76.65.13.72.72.42.93.95.26.78.19.19.48.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.