Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 6:10PM Saturday February 23, 2019 5:32 AM AKST (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 339 Am Akst Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230121
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
421 pm akst Fri feb 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A ridge continues to build over mainland alaska, with a trough
digging in over the bering, which will be the dominant synoptic
pattern through early next week. Southcentral is experiencing dry
conditions and offshore flow as this ridge starts to amplify over
the area. A front stretching from the north pacific to the
northern bering along the western part of the ridge is bringing
gusty conditions and rain showers across the western and central
aleutians and bering.

Model discussion
The numerical models are generally in very good agreement through
Sunday afternoon. Out west, there are some differences in how the
models handle a low moving across the central western aleutians
Friday afternoon and then northward across the central bering
Friday night and Saturday. With a ridge and subsidence over
southcentral, some fog is expected and the models generally do not
do very well with low level moisture. The forecast confidence
for the afternoon package is above normal, except below normal
for the fog.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into this
evening. Lifr conditions in fog are expected beginning around
midnight, and continuing through the morning. The timing and
density of the fog around there area is uncertain, but judging
from last night conditions, it should move in. Then conditions
should improve Saturday afternoon as the fog lifts clears.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Monday)
as a former colleague of mine would say, "big bubble... No
trouble". That is the best way to some up at least the next few
days, as high pressure will continue to build across southcentral
through the period. This will allow fog to develop during the
nocturnal hours and persist through the morning. For tonight, it
looks like portions of copper basin and western kenai up through
the western anchorage bowl will see the greatest impact from this.

Then, as the ridge will continue to strengthen over the next few
days, look for the fog to increase in coverage and density, with
visibilities 1 2 mile or less a real possibility for many
locations.

With a higher Sun angle compared to the past few months, most
locations should experience enough heating to help mix out some or
all of the fog during the afternoon hours, except for the copper
basin. Here, much colder air being trapped in the valleys will
make it more difficult for this to occur.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Saturday
and Sunday)...

as upper level ridging builds over the southern mainland, and
moisture from a low and its associated front over the central
aleutians flows over the top of this ridge, the resulting moist
southwest onshore flow over the kuskokwim delta will keep a chance
of precipitation across the region through tonight. As this ridge
is pushed east by the low and front moving into the bering sea
Saturday, increased moisture moves to the kuskokwim delta coast
once again increasing the chance for precipitation Saturday
afternoon and night. Along with this increased moisture will be
very warm low level air, and the 850 mb level temperatures are
expected to warm from -10c to 0c Saturday. This will result in
precipitation, if any, in the form of rain. By Sunday the upper
ridge is shoved over the southcentral region, thus increased
cloud cover and chances of precipitation can be expected over the
southwest mainland Sunday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Saturday
and Sunday)...

a low now over the central aleutians will continue to trek north
with its associated frontal boundary pushing east to south of the
aleutians Sunday producing a strong gradient in advance of the
front and around the low resulting in strong wind. Temperatures
will support snow at first then a mix of rain and snow. This
elevates the concern for a brief period of possible blizzard
conditions for the central and western aleutians Sunday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
There is high confidence in a deep storm-force low crossing the
western aleutians late Sunday into Monday. A widespread area of
southeasterly gales, with the potential for smaller core of
storm- force winds, are expected across the central and western
bering ahead of this system through late Monday. Westerly storm-
force winds will wrap underneath the low, impacting the coastal
water surrounding the western and central aleutians. Waves with
this system will rise to 30 to 40 feet on the pacific side of the
western and central aleutians and to 20 to 30 feet across the
western and central bering. Winds and waves will slowly decrease
in intensity and height as the low lifts north Tuesday. Confidence
is also above average with a second deepening storm-force low
moving across the central aleutians and into the central and
eastern bering late Tuesday into Wednesday with widespread
southerly gales, areas of storms, and wave heights building to
over 20 feet.

High pressure anchored over the gulf of alaska will allow
generally westerly, sub small-craft winds along the coast from
kodiak island to cordova through midweek.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Mon through fri)...

an established omega block stretching from the western aleutians
east to the canadian interior will anchor a ridge directly over
southcentral through much of next week. The vertically stacked
ridge will result in a rather tranquil weather pattern, with the
biggest forecast challenge through the period being fog, due to
the weak flow in the lower levels and warmer air advecting
northward in the mid-levels. Drier conditions and light winds will
also allow for larger diurnal temperature swings, with daytime
highs across southcentral running slightly above average and
nighttime lows below average. A few areas of scattered cloud cover
may develop late Monday into Tuesday from kodiak north through the
cook inlet and again late Wednesday into Thursday across western
areas of southcentral as two shortwaves rotate around the ridge.

Both of these systems, however, are expected to weaken and shear
apart as they lift northward.

For the southwest mainland, conditions will remain more unsettled
with the region sitting in the transition zone between the main
trough to the west and the ridge to the east. Here, a series of
fronts will track toward the coast, move inland and fall apart as
they run into the ridge. The first will arrive late Sunday and
linger through Monday before a second reinforces the southerly
flow and precipitation (especially along the coast) late Monday
through Tuesday. These systems then fall apart as the ridge to
the east shifts a bit to the west. A third front is then expected
to impact the southwest late Thursday into Friday. The challenge
here will be precipitation type, especially as a persistent
southerly flow continues to bring warmer air into the region. The
first two systems look to be mostly a rain event along the coast
(with snow aloft and over the interior), but slightly colder air
in place over the region prior to the third frontal system may
bring a wintry mix to all locations during the onset of
precipitation before the warmer air arrives.

Farther west, the weather pattern is expected to remain quite
active with a deep trough anchored over the bering. We have a
very active pattern on tap for next week. The week starts with a
strong storm-force low crossing the western aleutians into the
western bering. This low lifts north, a second gale-force low
follows behind the first and tracks north into the western bering
beginning early Wednesday. Broad, cyclonic flow and areas
of showers continue across the bering as this second storm lifts
north. A newly developing north pacific low is then expected to
advance toward the western aleutians by the end of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning: 150-170, 172-177, 179-185, 411-414.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ah bl
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Sa
marine long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi42 min W 5.8 G 7.8 31°F 42°F1028.9 hPa (+0.0)21°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi42 min E 7.8 G 9.7 4 ft
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi32 min 43°F1029.2 hPa (+0.3)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair3°F0°F83%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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W8W8W8W7W5W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalm4SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Alaska
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Chenega Island
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Sat -- 03:54 AM AKST     12.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:06 AM AKST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM AKST     11.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:03 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM AKST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.67.110.212.31312.19.96.83.50.9-0.20.62.95.88.510.611.5119.46.93.91.4-00.4

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:56 AM AKST     13.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:08 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:04 AM AKST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM AKST     11.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.87.410.612.713.512.610.37.13.60.9-0.20.7368.9111211.59.87.24.11.4-00.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.