Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:19AMSunset 11:45PM Monday June 26, 2017 12:42 AM AKDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:24AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 341 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 25 2017
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue and Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed through Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260046
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 pm akdt Sun jun 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Two potent upper level lows continue to drive much of the dynamics
across southcentral this morning, with one low centered in the
western bering, and another low centered in the far eastern gulf
of alaska. IR satellite imagery indicates a front draped across
the alaska peninsula which is progressing eastward slightly faster
than models have indicated. East of this front a broad shield of
cirrus covers much of southcentral. While some convection is
already starting to form across the kuskokwim valley and into
the susitna valley, currently the cirrus seems to be keeping
temperatures cool enough to prohibit too much convective
development. In addition, the sounding this morning indicates
several layers of dry air.

Model discussion
Models are in generally good agreement depicting the eastward
inland propagation of the gulf low, and the progression of the
bering low into the eastern bering over the next several days.

Currently models are indicating that the front approaching the
gulf of alaska on Tuesday afternoon will be stronger than
previously indicated. Due to the increased model confidence as
well, winds were trended upward especially in the gulf of alaska
coastal waters.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Widespread high clouds that have moved into southcentral will help
keep conditions slightly cooler than initially expected this
evening. This will limit the wet thunderstorm potential mainly to
the susitna valley, talkeetna mountains, and copper river basin.

Further south over the chugach mountains convection should be weak
enough to produce mainly showers, though there is a slight chance
of a few strikes as far south as northern kenai peninsula.

A front approaching the gulf will then usher in a pattern change
stating Monday, bringing increased moisture and cooler
temperatures - which should persist into mid-week. Most
importantly on Tuesday, the models have come into much better
agreement in the timing of a barrier jet that will develop along
the north gulf coast, and as a result winds from prince william
sound to turnagain arm and west anchorage were significantly
increased with today's forecast update. This front will be
widespread rains to most areas. For the typical downslope prone
areas such as the anchorage bowl, matanuska valley, and copper
river basin, the only chance of widespread rain from this system
will come Monday night before strong cross barrier flow develops.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A warm front will move inland tonight, bringing widespread light
rain to the coast with that rain making it into the interior by
Monday afternoon. The strongest southeast winds will occur this
evening along the coast, especially the kuskokwim delta, where
gusts close to 40 mph will be possible. The front will stall and
weaken before the main upper trough supporting the front moves
toward the coast Tuesday morning. This trough will support waves
of moisture moving across the region through Wednesday with
widespread rain and showers. Expect cooler temperatures and rain
chances to continue Wednesday night as the upper trough begins to
lift north.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The low in the bering will continue to maintain its strength but
slowly meander eastward over the next several days. Its associated
front is fairly potent for this time of year and has been
bringing gusts above 40 mph in areas of channeled terrain such as
cold bay. As the front progresses eastward today, it will diminish
in intensity. However, with the low lingering, unsettled weather
is expected to continue over the short-term.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
The extended forecast beginning next Thursday is a progressive
pattern with a long wave trough over the bering and gulf of alaska
which continues clouds streaming inland along with higher chances
for rain into the weekend. Models are struggling with the
multiple shortwaves moving through the expansive trough leading
to higher uncertainty through the long range forecast. One of the
main challenges on Thursday into Friday is the development of the
next low in the north pacific which quickly moves into the southern
gulf. Models differ with how they build a ridge ahead of this
system over the southern mainland, which has large impacts on the
progression of the gulf low. Kept the inherited forecast intact
for this package as models still lack consistency from run to run.

There is a better signal over the bering that the broad trough
remains focused over the central bering waters while weakening
through the end of the week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... En
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Kh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi52 min ESE 9.7 G 9.7 57°F 56°F1013.6 hPa (+0.6)53°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi52 min WSW 14 G 18 51°F 52°F5 ft1015.4 hPa (+0.0)48°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi42 min 54°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi49 minESE 710.00 miOvercast57°F46°F69%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE7E7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4W5W5W75NW865NW6NW6Calm4E7E7E76E7SE7
2 days agoE6E6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E8SE7SE766E6E7E6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Chenega Island
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Mon -- 12:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:15 AM AKDT     13.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:55 AM AKDT     -3.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM AKDT     11.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:05 PM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
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Mon -- 12:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:17 AM AKDT     14.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM AKDT     -3.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM AKDT     11.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:03 PM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.