Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:53PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 10:09 AM AKDT (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:38PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 334 Am Akdt Wed Apr 25 2018
Today..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
Thu night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251251
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
451 am akdt Wed apr 25 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern this morning consists of a very large
upper level low centered over the northern bering but extending
south across the aleutians and well into the north pacific.

Eastern portions of the upper low have pushed into western alaska
with a cold airmass aloft and strong southwesterly flow bringing
cool showery conditions to southwest alaska. In southcentral
alaska, the frontal system moving through yesterday and last night
has exited the area to the north and east with most areas
switching over to scattered showers though precipitation lingering
the longest along the northern gulf coast. As the cold advection
over southwest alaska spreads east, so do the more abundant
showers, with showers starting to pick up again in southcentral
alaska particularly over and along the mountains.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the end of the
week with high resolution models preferred for better details.

Some small model differences start to become apparent in the
handling of the trough crossing southern alaska on Friday
regarding its strength and exact tracks as well as with the speed
of larger frontal system following it in from the west Friday
night and Saturday.

Aviation
Panc... PredominantlyVFR conditions and breezy southeasterly
winds will persist for the next couple of days. Scattered showers
around the area may briefly drop conditions to MVFR with heavier
showers possibly being mixed with snow at times.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The mean position of the upper long wave trough continues over
western alaska eastern bering sea through Thursday night. This
will continue broad southwesterly flow and allow embedded upper
short waves to move across southcentral. Air aloft continues to
cool aloft through Thursday bringing relatively unstable
conditions. That said, expect showery weather to prevail across
much of southcentral. Precipitation type will be somewhat
problematic as wet bulb zero heights (snow levels) will be fairly
low during the morning hours inland before rising in the
afternoon. So expect generally showers to be mainly rain along the
coasts with a mix inland to all snow at higher elevation and
northern valley sections.

Surface pressure gradients should remain strong enough to continue
small craft winds over much of the western gulf cook inlet region
through today. In addition, gap flows will continue across
turnagain arm, out of the knik river valley, and along the copper
river basin into Thursday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Unseasonably cool and wet weather will plague southwest alaska
through the forecast period as an upper level low remains in place
over the bering. The low center will shift slightly north today
leading to persistent southwesterly onshore flow which will
promote widespread rain showers across the region. A shortwave
trough rotating around the base of the upper low will move up into
the bristol bay area this afternoon leading to a period of
enhanced shower activity over the bristol bay coast and up through
the kuskokwim river valley. In fact, some of these showers may
become more deeply convective in nature as limited surface
heating combined with cold air aloft will lead to steep mid level
lapse rates and decent instability in the afternoon. Hi-res models
show a line of enhanced showers forming from a line between king
salmon, iliamna, and sparrevohn this afternoon, thus embedded
isolated thunderstorms may be possible in this area.

Shower activity will taper off some Wednesday night and Thursday
morning before a low dropping south across the northern bering
brings another round of precipitation and gusty southwest winds
late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Colder air
associated with this system as well as plenty of antecedent cold
air at the surface should keep precipitation as snow for most
locations, though accumulations only look to be minimal at this
time.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A broad upper low over the bering will shift slightly north and
east today keeping the eastern half of the bering aleutians under
cool and showery conditions while a shortwave ridge builds in over
the western half of the area bringing drier weather to places
like shemya and adak. On Thursday, a shortwave trough dropping
south over the central bering will sweep across the pribilofs and
eastern bering bringing snow changing over to rain by Thursday
evening. The next major system comes barreling across the pacific
towards the western bering aleutians by Thursday afternoon
bringing gale force winds and heavy rain across the island chain
as it progresses east through the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long range forecast beginning Thursday night continues with
higher precipitation chances across the southern mainland as an
upper level bering low and associated surface front lifts north of
the bering strait through Saturday. The next storm system quickly
follows as a fast paced low tracks across the bering, making it
to the southwest coast by Saturday morning.

Models have been struggling with evolving the individual low
tracks as the jet stream acts as a 110+ kt conveyor belt which
remains along the aleutian chain and southern gulf through early
next week. Models are starting to align better with breaking the
ridge down over the gulf over the latter part of the weekend.

However, this is a new trend for the forecast at the start of next
week. Main updates for the extended forecast focus around
stronger winds along the bering and trends toward higher
precipitation chances for the southern mainland and surrounding
waters.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jer
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kv
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi51 min SE 6 G 11 41°F 41°F1020.6 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi51 min NNW 1 G 1.9 39°F 44°F1020 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 77 mi79 min S 14 G 16 42°F 7 ft1018.9 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Cordova, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S10
G25
N5
G21
S8
G19
N8
G19
NE10
G39
NE21
G34
N21
G38
SW8
G43
N16
G37
NE19
G48
NE28
G55
E16
G39
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G39
E7
G16
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G22
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G17
SE5
G12
SW3
E6
G13
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G12
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G21
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G11
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NE4
NW2
NE10
G15
NW4
G7
N8
G15
N9
G18
NE4
G16
N9
G12
E5
G12
N4
E9
G20
NE9
G16
NE6
G11
W5
G16
NW2
G20
NW4
G15
NE10
G23
SW7
G18
N13
G18
N12
G31
NE7
G26
NE19
G32
S7
G25
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G20
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N13
G18
N15
G23
NW7
G10
N8
G14
NE6
G26
N10
G24
SE8
G19
S3
G22
NW2
G11
NW5
G27
N9
G12
N3
G19
NE10
G16
NE6
S3
G9
NE10
G13
SE11
G20
S1
G7
W4
G8
NW5
G10
E5
G11
E3
NE3
E5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi76 minESE 67.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F96%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
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E13E7E7E7NE3E4E5S3SE4E4SE6SE7
1 day agoE8E4E5E7E6CalmE9E4E56
G16
E5E10SE9SE7SE10
G15
E8E11
G16
E7SE11
G16
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2 days agoE14
G21
E12
G20
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G22
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G25
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G31
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G30
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54E9
G16
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Pete Dahl Slough
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Wed -- 05:09 AM AKDT     3.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:47 AM AKDT     8.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:38 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:36 PM AKDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:42 PM AKDT     9.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
87.15.94.63.63.23.54.45.87.28.38.686.85.13.21.60.60.51.53.35.57.69

Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:29 AM AKDT     3.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:29 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:55 AM AKDT     9.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:39 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:56 PM AKDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:50 PM AKDT     10.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.97.96.65.13.93.23.34.15.77.58.99.48.97.763.920.70.31.12.95.47.89.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.