Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 10:48 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Fri - E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 162358 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 358 PM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stout upper level ridge remains over eastern Alaska, with a deep longwave trough axis situated over the eastern Bering and southwest Alaska. A shortwave south the Alaska Peninsula rotating around the base of this trough will close off and move eastward over the gulf and underneath the ridge through tonight. At the surface, an associated weak surface low near Kodiak Island will move slowly eastward through Friday before quickly weakening. Rain currently across Kodiak Island will continue to spread northward into the Kenai Peninsula through tonight, quickly ending by Friday afternoon. Behind the low, a weak shortwave ridge attempts to build back into western Southcentral Alaska. Slightly warmer temperatures will return on Saturday with some breaks in the clouds possible, and much of the area remaining mostly dry through at least early afternoon. Gusty southeasterly gap winds through the Turnagain and Knik Arms and Copper River Basin will also pick up again as a coastal ridge develops ahead of a low entering the western Gulf.

Later on Saturday a robust upper level low will slide from the Bering Sea into the western Gulf of Alaska, sending another period of precipitation back into Kodiak Island. As the upper low and accompanying surface low move into the western Gulf, precipitation will also overspread the eastern Kenai Peninsula through Sunday morning. Confidence remains low in regards to the northern extent of precipitation through Sunday as there is still disagreement among model guidance on where the upper low ejects into the Gulf; a moderate, more steady rain may also make it further north into the Prince William Sound and other areas along the coast of Southcentral Alaska.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The front is drifting east across Southwest and chances for precipitation are decreasing as it pushes toward the Alaska Range and Southcentral. Fog and low stratus could return in the morning for the Kuskokwim Delta and coast. Meanwhile, a front is moving across the Bering Sea with increasing chances for precipitation expected overnight for the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians Friday morning. The front progresses into the eastern Bering and the Alaska Peninsula Friday evening, where chances linger through Saturday. By Saturday morning, the front will extend precipitation to the Southwest Alaska coast. South to southeasterly flow will be enhanced through gaps (to around 20 to 30 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph) Saturday morning for Etolin Strait, the passes and channels of the Alaska Peninsula, and Bristol Bay Saturday. Southeast winds increase to 30 to 40 mph through Kamishak gap Saturday afternoon and evening. Chances gradually diminish Sunday from northwest to southeast. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected with southerly flow.

With the progressive pattern expected in the forecast, A ridge will be sandwiched between systems and quiet weather will be brief. The next front reaches the Western Aleutians Saturday morning. Small craft wind gusts are possible, and widespread precipitation mainly in the form of rain is currently expected as the shortwave moves eastward. The front appears to weaken and flatten into a more east west orientation as it passes Adak. As such, isolated to scatter showers could linger behind the front through Monday morning. The Pribilof Islands could also see some light showers returning Monday morning.

rux

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The extended forecast looks to be a brief transitional period as the longwave pattern reloads itself. Currently the pattern is driven by an anchoring trough over Siberia with a cold pool extending into the Bering Sea and southwest Mainland. Over the weekend, a new stronger shortwave trough propagates within the east Asian jet and into the Bering Sea which will re-orient the longwave trough to look much the same as it currently does despite the first system moving from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. For Southcentral Alaska, the northern extent of the Gulf low pressure will potentially bring rain to coastal areas but leave interior areas dry with continued clouds and slightly below normal temperatures over the weekend.

What does this mean for sensible weather? Another slug of tropical moisture will bring rain to the southwest Mainland and Aleutians early next week along with gusty southerly winds. The building ridge ahead of that front will bring at least of day of drier possibly sunny weather, however, with the trough out west positioned over the Bering Sea it is more likely than not that we get another disturbance or moisture plume over Southcentral, but confidence is lower and uncertainty high as the pattern transitions. Stay tuned.

MTL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The Turnagain wind may continue to bend into the terminal through the evening then slowly taper off into the overnight hours. Confidence on winds impacting the terminal decrease as the evening goes on. Otherwise relatively benign weather conditions are expected at the terminal.

MTL

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Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska, Tide feet

Eyak River entrance
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Thu -- 03:40 AM AKDT     5.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM AKDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:05 PM AKDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:21 PM AKDT     8.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Eyak River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

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