Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Toksook Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday March 23, 2019 7:10 AM AKDT (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ180 Kuskokwim Delta And Etolin Strait- 327 Am Akdt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory through Sunday...
Today..SE wind 25 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..S wind 30 kt subsiding to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Sun night..SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
Mon..SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
Tue..S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toksook Bay, AK
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location: 60.47, -165.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 231133
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
333 am akdt Sat mar 23 2019

Discussion
Tranquil weather with near record warmth in the central and
eastern interior will continue while a series of storms impact
the western interior, the west coast, bering strait, and western
brooks range.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.

Model spread remains limited through the weekend but begins to
increase significantly by Tuesday especially on the track and
strength of a deep low tracking northward through the western
bering sea on Tuesday.

Aloft at 500 hpa, an upper level ridge with axis from near point
barrow southeast to edmonton will continue to dominate the
central and eastern interior with limited precipitation and near
record to record warmth through Monday. A second ridge builds
rapidly over the eastern bering sea on Monday merging with the
point barrow to edmonton ridge over central alaska on Tuesday.

This high amplitude ride will park over central and eastern alaska
through the end of next week and will continue to produce very
warm temperatures over the central and eastern interior as well.

The remains of a front wrapping around a strong low pressure
system in the bering sea will move north over the interior on
Monday and will provide a chance of light precipitation. There
will be limited chances for precipitation in the interior through
after Monday of next week. An upper level trough currently over
the eastern bering sea will push south and east into the gulf of
alaska into Sunday. A much stronger upper level low pressure
system digs south and east over the eastern bering sea on Monday
and will continue over the bering sea into the middle of next
week.

On the north slope, a 1040 mb high pressure system over banks
island will continue to push south and east over the great slave
lake into Monday as a weak trough over the bering strait remains
in place. As the high recedes to the east the strong pressure
gradient over the north slope that produced ground blizzard
conditions overnight will relax with winds diminishing today.

In the interior a weak lee side trough has developed along the
northern foothills of the alaska range and will produce gusty
winds along and near the alaska range passes this afternoon and
again of Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to remain below
advisory criteria. Near record warmth will continue over the over
the interior with the snowpack continuing to ripen and melt out.

No significant hydrological issues noted in the interior however
minor ponding of water near roads and ditches, small streams as
well as significant melting on south facing slopes has been noted
in and around fairbanks.

Western interior and west coast will see a series of storms over
the next couple days with the first front moving out of the bering
sea and into the lower yk delta, st lawrence island and the seward
peninsula this evening. Heavy snow is expected to develop in the
western brooks range Sunday afternoon as the system continues to
move north through the bering strait. Gusty winds, and a wintery
mix of snow and rain will accompany the frontal system over the
lower yk delta, st lawrence island and the seward peninsula,
while mostly snow is expected in the western brooks range. Winter
storm watches remain in effect for these areas.

A much stronger low pressure system if forecasted to move north
through the central and western bering sea on Monday with a strong
front pushing north to the lower yk delta, seward peninsula and
bering strait Monday morning. Precipitation type is likely to be
start off as snow but transition rapidly to rain over the lower
yk delta and areas south of the brooks range. The lats computer
models continue to track the storm to the west of st lawrence
island which will take the strongest winds well west of the west
coast and combined with a quickly moving storm should help
minimize coastal flood concerns however surge models continue to
indicate a rise in sea levels beginning early Sunday. Offshore
winds prior to the event should mitigate any significant rise.

Strong southerly flow ahead of the storm may still cause elevated
surf, mainly along south- facing shores. We will continue to
monitor for additional developments.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

models continue to indicate a strong storm developing in the
central bering sea Monday morning with heavy precipitation moving
into the lower yk delta, norton sound and the seward peninsula
through the day Monday. The track of the storm to the west of st
lawrence island will take the strongest winds well west of the
west coast and combined with a quickly moving storm should help
minimize coastal flood concerns however surge models continue to
indicate a rise in sea levels beginning early Sunday, though
offshore winds prior to the event should mitigate any significant
rise. Strong southerly flow ahead of the storm may still cause
elevated surf, mainly along south-facing shores. We will continue
to monitor for additional developments.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Winter storm watch for akz207-akz208-akz217.

Winter weather advisory for akz210-akz211-akz213-akz214.

Gale warning for pkz245.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz210-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240.

Ccc mar 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska
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Kokechik Bay
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Sat -- 12:16 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:36 AM AKDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:44 AM AKDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:51 PM AKDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:08 PM AKDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.84.35.76.56.65.94.73.21.80.80.61.22.43.95.26.16.45.94.73.21.60.2-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.