Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 10:11 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 11:52 AM

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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - SW wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Thu - NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.Thu night - N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.Fri through Sat - N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.Sun - N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 022329 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 329 PM AKDT Thu May 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large upper-level low continues to slowly push eastward across the Gulf of Alaska and far northeast Pacific Ocean. Multiple surface lows along a front continue to draw North Pacific moisture northward into Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Typical downsloping areas of the western Kenai on northward are remaining dry with strong low/mid-level southeast flow.
Precipitation will taper off this evening as the parent low weakens, with just some light upslope precipitation remaining.

Another low complex over the Bering and associated front will then quickly move into the region in place of the existing system on Friday into the weekend. Precipitation will pick back up for Kodiak and the coastal Kenai Range, also pushing into the Prince William Sound region. Downsloping will continue for the western Kenai up through the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valley, keeping conditions dry but cloudy. High temperatures for at the least the next several days will be near climatological averages, with highs in the 50s for most of the region.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Some shifts in the forecast, but the general picture remains largely unchanged. Active weather continues through the weekend as a 973 mb low near Attu Island and its front move across the region. Here are the primary hazards we're monitoring:

* A Flood Watch for an ice jam is in effect through Saturday morning for Aniak.
* Periods of light to moderate rain (with snow possible for Pribilof Islands) and gusty winds as the front moves through on Friday.
* Colder temperatures and light freezing spray extend across the Eastern Bering/Southwest Alaska coastline from late Saturday through early next week.

Diving into the details... satellite imagery shows two storm systems impacting Southern Alaska: a weakening 998 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska, and a 973 mb low currently near Attu Island. With the Gulf low continuing to weaken and exit out of the area, fairly benign weather is expected for Southwest Alaska through the remainder of today. Expect isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening, with gusty southeasterly winds gradually diminishing. Further west, the low near Attu is beginning to occlude. With the front moving out of the area, expect generally improving conditions for the Western and Central Aleutians.

However, by early Friday morning, a vigorous upper level shortwave rotating around the parent low will aid in the development of a new surface low along the triple point of the front. As the new low develops near the Eastern Aleutians, it will tap into a stream of tropical moisture. Forecast precipitation amounts and wind speeds have been increased for the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the low looks to be a bit more robust than initially expected. This moisture will also make its way across Southwest Alaska through Friday, leading to a wet end to the workweek for much of the area. Even the Western and Central Aleutians will see precipitation on Friday, though to a lesser extent as showers move around the occluding parent low. Forecast confidence is quite good with this well-defined system. The biggest question will be snow amounts for the Pribilof Islands; with temperatures hovering just above freezing, there is uncertainty regarding how much precipitation will fall as snow versus rain. The current forecast is for a paltry 1-3 inches, which may even be a bit high as it relies on precipitation staying mostly snow.

From Saturday through Sunday, the triple point low will occlude as it moves over Southwest Alaska. At the same time, an upper low moving into the Bering Sea from the Arctic will bring shot of cold air. Expect rain showers to slowly diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the potential for some snow showers late at night/early in the morning as temperatures reach their daily minimum. Otherwise, daytime heating should keep precipitation as mostly rain. The other hazard to monitor will be the return of light freezing spray along the northern and eastern Bering Sea beginning Saturday night. This will be supported by colder air moving in aloft, northerly winds at small craft speed, and sea surface temperatures just below freezing. It may be May, but winter seems not quite ready to let go of its grip over the state.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The broad upper level Bering Sea trough harboring a closed low near St Lawrence Island will be breaking down and moving through the Gulf of Alaska into the Eastern North Pacific by the end of the forecast period. Forecast models demonstrate less confidence in the changing weather pattern through the week. The occasional injection of North Pacific energy and some jetstream support helps bring some significant weather producers across the Aleutians. It also helps draw the Bering low Southward beginning Tuesday. The system forms across the Central Aleutians and continues over the Alaska Peninsula for Thursday. An Eastern Gulf low weakens and moves into the Canadian Provinces as a trough by Wednesday. The upper level ridge weakens but holds on over the Arctic Coast.

Widespread precipitation will be the order of the day across the Western and Central Aleutians for Tuesday, and the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and the rest of Southern Alaska to the Canadian Border through the forecast. Additional rainfall should not be a factor with Interior Rivers dealing with ice jams and flooding due to above average snow melt. Locally heaviest rainfall is expected to spread from the Eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, parts of Cook Inlet, Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and over Prince William Sound for Wednesday and Thursday. The precipitation area continues to spread Eastward along the Gulf through the Weekend.

-Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds will once again be the main question as the southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind, through not as strong as it often is, looks like it will just make it up to the airport for this afternoon and evening. However, there is a chance that it does not and winds will remain from the west-to- northwest. The stronger east-to-southeast winds aloft will likely not make it as low as 2000 ft for true low level wind shear, but there may be some wind shear above the 2000 ft level through Friday.

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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM AKDT     16.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:11 AM AKDT     6.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:37 AM AKDT     16.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:46 PM AKDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kenai River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Nikiski
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM AKDT     17.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM AKDT     7.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:22 PM AKDT     16.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:07 PM AKDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

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