Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:51PM Thursday August 17, 2017 10:38 PM AKDT (06:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 342 Pm Akdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..S wind 15 kt becoming sw 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180054
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
454 pm akdt Thu aug 17 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A broad upper level trough associated with relatively cold air
aloft is supporting widespread showers across much of the
southcentral region. The sounding this morning indicated steep
lapse rates throughout the depth of much of the atmosphere and
near saturated conditions. This instability was confirmed by a
few lightning strikes near the kenai peninsula this morning.

Meanwhile high pressure maintains hold across the central and
western bering.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement in the short term with the strong
upper level forcing from the PV anomaly that now stretches across
much of the state. However, once more there is uncertainty in
where rainfall will develop this afternoon and evening across
southcentral. While most models keep the majority of showers along
the mountains. However, high resolution models hint at the
possibility of a strengthening turnagain arm jet again this
evening, which would produce a convergence boundary with the
southwest low level jet over anchorage.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Cold air aloft underneath an upper level low will continue to move
in over southcentral leading to a relatively unstable airmass. A
shortwave trough will push through the area this evening and will
act as a forcing mechanism to help initiate widespread rain
shower activity with periods of locally heavy rain across the
region. Rain showers will die down overnight into tomorrow morning
before another more vigorous shortwave trough digs down and
across the southern kenai peninsula on Friday. Rain will spread
north and east up the kenai and into the prince william sound as
well as into the anchorage and mat-su areas by the late
afternoon early evening hours.

Zonal flow sets-up behind the departing shortwave leading to
drier conditions for Saturday across most of the region, though
showers will develop again over the mountains in the afternoon.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A wet and cloudy pattern persists through the upcoming weekend as
an upper level trough remains over the state. Periods of rain and
patchy fog are the biggest challenges for the upcoming weekend.

Showers are expected to be the prevailing precipitation pattern
as broad surface troughing lacks any notable focus. The airmass
across the southwest mainland is conditionally stable and will
likely have weak surface inversions set up during the late night
and early morning hours allowing patchy fog to develop.

The next potent shortwave develops across the bering strait on
Saturday and dives across the kuskokwim delta Saturday night with
rain developing along this dynamic set up. This wave moves
southeast through Sunday spreading rain across the valleys to the
western alaska and aleutian ranges by Sunday afternoon.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Low to mid level clouds continue to stream toward the bering from
low pressure over the arctic and from another low just south of
the central aleutians. The ridge over the central bering blocks
either low from tracking across and holds its position through
this weekend. Areas of fog develops across the stable air mass
associated with the ridge. The lowest visibilities are expected
during the late night and early morning hours, improving slightly
during the afternoon and evenings. Several upper level
disturbances dive south from the arctic low along the eastern half
of the bering which will bring light rain to the pribilof islands
and the alaska peninsula Sunday.

The low pressure currently south of the central aleutians moves on
a slow easterly track through Saturday bringing rain to the chain.

This system shoves southeast Saturday night with a building ridge
from the north pacific amplifying across the western bering
through Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The active wet pattern remains intact through the long term
forecast period as we head through the middle of next week. There
in a north pacific low tracking eastward parallel along the
eastern aleutians before it moves into the gulf by Sunday
afternoon. This system remains almost stationary in the northern
gulf before exiting into the lower eastern gulf by Tuesday, and
then tracks into the north pacific ocean by Wednesday. The models
struggle with the timing as this low tracks along the aleutian chain
before entering the gulf. Look for the bulk of the moisture to
remain along the northern gulf coastal communities. Meanwhile, the
bering sea has a ridge of high pressure building into the region
before a north pacific 997 mb low tracks near 45n 167e with an
associated front entering the western aleutians by Monday morning.

By Tuesday evening the high pressure moves southward, and the
aforementioned low moves into the western bering. The models have
difficulty as this system tracks northward. The wpc keeps this
system as a broad area of low pressure, while the ECMWF has a more
consolidated system near saint matthew island by Wednesday
evening. As we go into Thursday the wpc remains broad brushing
this system, but the ECMWF keeps it consolidated as it tracks into
the eastern bering. Therefore, look for marine layer stratus fog
with the high pressure ridge before transitioning to widespread
showery regime as the low pressure system enters the bering. The
southwest alaska area will transition to an offshore drier flow
briefly before transitioning back to onshore flow by Tuesday. This
will advect marine layer stratus into the region with showery
regime setting up by Wednesday. Since there continues to be model
discrepancy with the timing placement of the different synoptic
features, the forecast confidence will be barely average through
the long term forecast.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Eln
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Pd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi50 min SSW 13 G 16 58°F1003.7 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 46 mi38 min S 14 G 16 53°F 1003.4 hPa (+0.5)48°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 63 mi68 min NW 6 53°F 1002 hPa47°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi45 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F46°F83%1003.7 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi42 minS 310.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12E5E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmSE3SE43SW7SW8S5SW6SW5SW9SW9S9S9S10S8
1 day agoS12SW13S16S13S7SW13
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SW8SE5SE3E4SE4S5S10S12SW15SW14SW12SW11SW10SW15
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2 days agoSW8S7SE3E3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmS8SW5S8S9SW11SW13SW12SW12S16
G21
SW13SW16SW17S17

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM AKDT     20.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM AKDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:51 PM AKDT     18.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:53 PM AKDT     4.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
17.819.919.918.315.411.47.13.30.90.42.35.910.615.11818.917.815.211.67.95.34.569.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM AKDT     19.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM AKDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 PM AKDT     19.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:07 PM AKDT     4.69 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.61919.918.916.112.38.34.20.7-0.51.35.19.51417.51918.315.912.99.66.44.75.89.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.