Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:17AMSunset 4:13PM Sunday November 19, 2017 12:38 PM AKST (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:13AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 340 Am Akst Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning tonight...
Today..N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
Tonight..N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191332
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
432 am akst Sun nov 19 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A powerful digging upper level low centered just west of norton
sound and its associated influence on the jet is driving all of
the active weather across southern alaska this morning. The
primary jet streak lies to the west of the center of the upper
low, which is further enhancing the negative (northwest to
southeast) tilt of the primary shortwave trough axis. As a result,
a strong low, also taking advantage of excellent baroclinicity is
tracking into southwest alaska. By now the cold front has largely
swept across all of southwest alaska, and all remaining liquid
precipitation is changing back over to snow. The leading edge of
the precipitation is crossing the alaska range now (a feat in and
of itself), and will be overspreading southcentral over the next
few hours. Much of the heaviest snowfall is ongoing across
southwest alaska on the west side of the alaska range and the
kuskokwim mountains. Meanwhile for the bering, a transition to
much colder temperatures along with very windy conditions is
occurring.

Model discussion
The models remain in excellent agreement through the short-term.

All generally agreeing on the synoptic evolution of the ongoing
winter storm and the timing on the next front that will cross the
bering and move into southwest alaska on Tuesday. Thus, the main
model difference once again reside in the local effects, for which
the high-resolution models like the namnest were preferred.

Forecast confidence remains high on the broad pattern and somewhat
lower on the local details.

Aviation
Panc... Snow has begun and will intensify through the morning
bringing visibilities to MVFR to occasional ifr with any stronger
bands. The snow will taper to snow showers late morning and end
completely during the afternoon, resulting in improving conditions
back toVFR through Monday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Southcentral mainland...

a weakening occluded front is spreading snow across much of
southcentral today. Snow should diminish during the afternoon
inland and the evening to overnight hours along the coasts. The
kenai peninsula will get a fair amount of snow today with the
western kenai peninsula expected to hit advisory levels (4 to 8
inches). Gusty winds developing later today will also reduce
visibilities in blowing snow. Elsewhere across southcentral snow
amounts should not exceed 2 to 4 inches. Outflow and gap
conditions are expected to develop across the north gulf and the
matanuska valley beginning overnight. The strongest outflow
conditions will be along the north gulf coast.

Kodiak and the gulf waters...

a developing triple-point low near kodiak will move slowly east
today and then track south Monday. This center will produce
widespread gales and storms over the northern and western gulf
waters. These conditions will hold through tonight before slowly
diminishing and pushing south Monday afternoon. Snow mixed at
times will rain along with strong winds and blowing snow potential
are expected to continue over kodiak through tonight. A slight
change in the positions of the triple could make a big difference
in snowfall potential. Stay tuned for updates.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Early this morning, a strong cold front is stretched from just
east of aniak to king salmon at 4 am. Ahead of this front,
widespread snow has developed, some of which has been heavy with
visibilities reduced to one quarter of a mile. Behind the front,
the precipitation becomes more showery in nature with mainly snow
showers observed in the kuskokwim delta south towards bristol bay,
before things change over to liquid form. However, strong
northwest winds (currently pushing 55 mph) have already pushed
inland along the coast from goodnews bay north and this will
continue to spread southeast through the remainder of the morning,
changing all precipitation back to snow showers. Additional
accumulations of up to 2 inches remain possible for the bethel
area and points towards the coast, with less towards king salmon.

Further inland along the kuskokwim mountains and alaska range,
another 3 to 6 inches looks like a good bet before the storm
giving us the snow exits the region as it heads towards the gulf
of alaska. Although the winds will gradually diminish over the
next 36 hours, blowing snow will continue to be a concern through
that time.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Winds will continue to increase in strength today for the eastern
half of the bering sea and akpen. A strong area of low pressure
will continue its trek from nome towards the eastern kodiak
island vicinity. A vigorous 125kt mid level jet already stretches
across the region. However, the leading edge of 850 mb cold
advection and drying aloft is lagging a few hundred miles behind
the surface front. This will continue to dive southeast heading
through the morning and into the afternoon. As this occurs,
vertical mixing will rapidly increase with hurricane force gusts
likely for the region. Western areas of the alaska peninsula and
eastern bering see will see the longest duration of such winds
compared to points further west. With that in mind, the current
headlines look good and only minor tweaks to the forecast were
made.

Further west, a ridge of high pressure stretched across the
western aleutians and this ridge will shift eastward through this
evening before de-amplifying overnight. Heading into Monday, a
strong low moving across eastern siberia will send yet another
cold front eastward across the bering sea Monday into Tuesday,
with strong winds developing across the northern half of the
region.

Another low will move into the western bering by Wednesday
morning, with an attendant warm front sweeping northeast.

Widespread precipitation will develop along this feature and we
were tempted to add in a mention of fog but decided to hold off
for another forecast cycle or two, as some models differ on the
strength of the warm air aloft moving into the area. This low
will rapidly deepen as it heads towards the kuskokwim delta by
late Wednesday evening, deepening 26 mb as it does so. As such,
you guessed it, more strong winds are likely, possibly reaching
storm force.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
After Tuesday's system moves out of alaska, a shortwave ridge will
once again move in over most of the state. This will bring a
period of clear skies and seasonably cold to below normal
temperatures in some valleys through Wednesday evening. Yet
another system will approach alaska from the west beginning
Wednesday night, traversing the bering sea on a very similar path
to the previous two systems. This will bring a repeat of strong
westerly winds followed by strong northwesterly winds for the
bering coast and the ak pen. Precipitation type looks like it will
be less of a challenge with this system, as it has colder air
aloft than the current systems. Current thinking is that it will
remain all snow for the west coast on Thursday, but that may
change as the system gets closer.

This system is currently expected to bottom out at 970 mb as it
approaches the west coast. As it crosses the ak pen, it develops a
secondary low in the gulf of alaska which should help to draw
some colder air down from the interior. As a result, outflow winds
are expected to pick up on the southern side of the ak pen and in
the usual channeled areas throughout southcentral. If the system
remains as strong as forecast, the weather challenge for the end
of next week will be strong northerly winds for both east and
west.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning: 181 185 195.

Winter weather advisory: 121 152 161 171.

Marine...

storm warning: 119 120 131 132 136 137 155 165 170-172 179-181
185 352 412 414.

Gale warning: 127 130 138 139 150 160 173 174 178 351 411 413.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi51 min NE 8.9 G 15 23°F 38°F993.1 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 46 mi39 min N 8 G 8 21°F 994.1 hPa (+0.0)19°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi46 minN 130.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F21°F96%993 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi43 minN 61.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist21°F18°F88%0 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE5E3NE6NE6NE8NE11N11N12N14N12N10N13
1 day agoS3SE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3E4E35Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmN4CalmNE5NE4CalmN6N3E6E8N4NE7NE5NE6N6NE6N5N7E7E6E4SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:43 AM AKST     21.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:17 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM AKST     3.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:22 PM AKST     22.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:44 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:17 PM AKST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.25.911.717.120.621.319.616.211.77.24.13.25.39.815.119.822.422.219.715.610.45.21-1

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:01 AM AKST     21.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:19 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:14 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:03 AM AKST     3.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:42 PM AKST     21.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:44 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:33 PM AKST     -1.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.35.110.715.919.721.119.916.712.88.95.53.85.39.614.618.721.321.819.91611.16.32-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.