Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 7:17 PM AKDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 330 Pm Akdt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory through Thursday night...
Tonight..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Thu..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat through Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250026
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
426 pm akdt Wed may 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A nearly stacked low is evident near saint matthew island. Its
associated front is moving rapidly east across SW alaska. Radar
imagery shows widespread rain across the north cook inlet region,
north gulf coast, and over the mat-su valleys. Rain is rapidly
changing over to showers across SW alaska as cold air aloft moves
overhead and destabilizes the area. Strong as the broad upper low
complex continues over the northern and central bering sea. A
trough on the eastern spoke of complex extends across southcentral
and is exiting to the north. Gusty winds associated with the
above features were evident from the ak pen SW alaska to across
southcentral. Gap flows are fairly strong across turnagain arm,
knik arm, and along the copper river.

Model discussion
Model guidance overall is in fairly good agreement with timing of
synoptic features. Mainly performing hand edits.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southeast winds will continue across the airport
complex through Thursday, but slowly diminish.VFR conditions are
expected, except just a slight chance of some MVFR in showers
this evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Drier air working its way northeastward towards southcentral is
diminishing the coverage of the rainfall activity this afternoon.

The turnagain arm wind was effectively able to dry the anchorage
bowl out today, resulting in less rainfall than originally
forecast here, though most areas with less rain got close to
forecasted amounts.

This evening and tonight, precipitation will end in most areas
with the exception of favorable upslope locations along the
talkeetna mountains, alaska range, and prince william sound. The
drier air will also be colder, particularly aloft, making the
atmosphere become increasingly unstable. Thus, remaining
precipitation activity along the mountains will increasingly take
on a showery nature as the clouds are able to build more
vertically with time.

On Thursday, with impressively cold air continuing to move in
aloft, it will not take much daytime heating for thunderstorms to
become a possibility along most of the area mountains around
southcentral, even by late morning. The potential will also exist
for the increasing southeasterly turnagain arm wind converging
with the broad southerly flow up cook inlet for some showers to
make it into anchorage as well. For those in the mountains,
falling snow levels won't inhibit vertical cloud growth, so
thundersnow will be possible there.

By Thursday night, while the thunderstorm threat diminishes, much
of the atmospheric instability will remain, so mountain showers
will likely continue through the overnight. For the populated
valley locations, temperatures may be the big story, as colder air
moves in. Freezing levels are expected to fall to around 1,500
feet. Nearly all locations, including anchorage, are forecast to
see lows dip into the 30s with clearing skies. While the winds
across the area are forecast to remain strong enough overnight to
keep temperatures in most areas safely above freezing, any
locations that are sheltered and or are elevated have the
potential of seeing frost develop Friday morning. Areas with the
greatest potential of seeing some frost include the usual cold
spots around anchorage, the upper hillside, most of the passes
across southcentral, and the copper river basin.

During the day on Friday, mountain showers will redevelop once
again with cold air remaining in place aloft. However, without an
upper level wave or much of anything to add to the lift besides
topography, thunderstorms, if any, will be much more isolated.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system that brought widespread wetting rains
throughout the region trough this morning has moved east of the
area, allowing for unseasonably cold air to move in its wake. The
first impact from this cold air will be this evening from a deep
layer instability that will occur as a very cold upper level
trough passes overhead, which may provide enough instability to
produce a few lightning strikes over the kuskokwim river delta
this evening. A chance of thunderstorms will then re-form over
the kuskokwim valley on Thursday afternoon as as even stronger
instability develops under the upper level trough. The second
impact from this system will occur late tonight as enough cold air
reaches the low elevations along the kuskokwim valley to produce
light snow accumulations, which may spread as far west as bethel
for Thursday morning. If this were to occur it would be first time
since 2008 that accumulating snowfall occurred at bethel this
late in the season.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Most of the weather through Thursday will surround the low
currently over the northern bering that will continue to bring
unseasonably cold air into much of the bering. This low will
bring gusty westerly winds and rain showers to much of the region
this evening. This low may bring enough cold air into the
pribilof islands overnight to bring snow to the region, however
with warming sst's keeping temperatures well above freezing
accumulation is not expected.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The weekend will begin with the elongated cold upper level trough
over western and southwest mainland alaska. This will keep below
normal temperatures over most of the forecast area... Especially in
southwest mainland ak. Southcentral will be in due south flow
aloft which is favorable for precipitation. As the weekend
progresses a cut off low should develop near kodiak off the main
upper level low allowing the main low to retreat into the arctic.

After this the main pattern remains a bit unclear as models
continue to struggle with the synoptic pattern. Overall the
deterministic runs are all over the place with the GFS ensemble
means a little bit better. Best bet is that early next week
remains cloudy with some showers, but temperatures should be
increasing and back to near normal for much of the week. This
unsettled pattern is producing below normal confidence in the long
range forecasts.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dek
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi47 min SSW 23 G 27 45°F 45°F1011.7 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 46 mi47 min S 13 G 16 49°F 1011.2 hPa37°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 63 mi47 min W 12 47°F 1014 hPa37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE1
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G8
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G14
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G10
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi24 minSSW 23 G 3110.00 miLight Rain and Windy47°F41°F80%1012.1 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi21 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast50°F37°F63%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
G23
SW14SW9SW7SW5S3E3E3E5NE6SE4E8E6E5E4E5SE8S5E5S8S20
G25
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1 day agoSW13SW12SW13SW11SW10S11SE8S12S8S10S10S12
G18
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2 days agoW9SW10SW10SW9S7S6SE4SE6SE7SE6SE6S6SW5SW9SW9SW12SW12SW12
G23
SW16SW13
G21
S10S9S12SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:31 AM AKDT     22.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:24 AM AKDT     -2.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:19 PM AKDT     21.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:32 PM AKDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.514.119.122.222.32015.910.54.80.1-2.4-21.67.213.418.621.120.718.113.78.641.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:52 AM AKDT     22.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM AKDT     -3.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM AKDT     21.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:17 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:48 PM AKDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.913.418.221.522.520.716.611.35.91-2.5-2.90.56.412.417.420.62118.714.59.85.62.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.