Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:46PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:31 PM AKDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 256 Pm Akdt Fri Jun 22 2018
Tonight..S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun and Sun night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue through Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230027
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
427 pm akdt Fri jun 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low over the bering sea and a weaker trough over
the gulf of alaska continue to bring cloudy and cool weather to
much of the state today. As the upper level trough slowly moves
through the southcentral region, the radar reflects a slowly
shifting precip boundary along the kenai peninsula. Over the
western mainland, radar is showing a series of showers training
over bethel that is associated with a trough from the low in the
bering sea. These showers are heavier in nature and are reducing
visibilities but haven't had much other impact. Meanwhile, a
shortwave ridge in the far western aleutians is leading to broad
areas of fog across the western bering sea.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement on the larger features in the next 48
hours. Due to the overall level of instability, actual locations
of showers are difficult to resolve between the different model
runs. Moving into the Sunday Monday timeframe, upper levels are in
pretty good agreement about an easterly wave moving into the
copper river basin, but how this plays out later on at the surface
has some differences between the model runs. If the NAM plays out,
this easterly wave will remain further to the east, with fewer
impacts over the southcentral area.

Aviation
Panc... Some MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon, but
these lingering lower clouds should break up by evening.VFR
conditions and light winds are then expected through Saturday
evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Weak cyclonic flow aloft combined with weak instability will allow
a few light showers to linger across southcentral through this
evening, though do expect a drying trend. After this, instead of a
weak upper level ridge building in, it now looks like southcentral
will remain under the influence of cyclonic flow, with all
computer models now indicating a distinct short-wave trough
moving from the eastern gulf tonight to the copper river basin on
Saturday. Based on this, have trended wetter across the copper
river basin. Weak flow and instability elsewhere should keep the
remainder of the area mostly dry, with just a few showers focused
along the mountains. The short-wave will also reinforce cloud
cover across the region, but do think areas farthest away should
see at least some breaks of Sun during the day Saturday. This
includes the kenai peninsula on up to anchorage and perhaps even
portions of the mat-su.

The upper level will flatten out and linger over interior
southcentral Saturday night through Sunday. Storm motion will
advect showers westward from the copper river basin to the mat-su.

A few showers may make it as far south as anchorage and the kenai
peninsula. Sunday definitely looks like the cloudier day of the
weekend. A second upper wave will approach the copper basin from
the east on Sunday. Low level warming just ahead of it looks like
enough to destabilize the atmosphere and produce a few
thunderstorms.

The flow becomes more chaotic on Monday and it's hard to hone in
on any specific feature to focus showers. For now, have used a
very broad brush approach to the precipitation forecast.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A fairly stagnant pattern is setting up across the mainland. The
bands of showers across the kuskokwim delta and greater bristol
bay will wane this evening. At the same time any shower activity
will stay confined to the mountains, possibly some drifting off
toward naknek overnight. The next two afternoons will look much
the same. Overall, decreasing cloud cover with breaks of Sun in
the afternoon will lead to late afternoon shower activity, mainly
along higher terrain. The next front will approach from the
bering sea early next week, but will be weakening as it does.

Expect temperatures slightly above normal, and light winds for the
period.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A weak front with rain showers will fall apart over the central
bering sea this afternoon and evening. The next front, sub-gale-
force, will pivot from west to east across the chain beginning
late tonight. Rain will spread across most of the area through the
weekend, shifting to the alaska peninsula early next week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Monday night with the Sunday night
with the main feature the low in the eastern bering sea near the
pribilof islands. The deterministic models, ensemble runs, and wpc
are in agreement with this low position and intensity through the
week. The models, ensemble and wpc remain in good agreement with
the resolution of the ridge in the gulf of alaska being squeezed
and pushed to the east as a frontal low from the bering sea low
pushes into the gulf late Wednesday. As we move out into the
latter part of next week the main low moves over the mainland as a
ridge builds in behind it over the bering sea.

This all translates to a continuation of the cool, cloudy, and
wet pattern over the southern mainland. As the frontal low pushes
into the gulf Wednesday, more rain and clouds can be expected
along the gulf coast to kodiak island.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Lf
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ml
long term... Sa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi49 min SW 12 G 17 51°F 50°F1020.4 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 46 mi31 min SSE 11 G 13 48°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)46°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 63 mi61 min NW 9.9 1019 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi38 minSW 910.00 miOvercast51°F45°F80%1020.4 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi35 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast54°F41°F62%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S3S5S5SW7SW8SW7SW9S9SW12SW9SW9S11SW9SW8SW11SW14SW13SW10SW12SW13SW16
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1 day agoNE4CalmCalmS5SW3CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW5SW8SW9SW5SW5W6SW7SW7
2 days agoNW5W6NW6NW4N4N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N4N5N8N14NE14N11NE12N12
G18
N14N12N11N10

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
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Fri -- 12:21 AM AKDT     19.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM AKDT     2.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM AKDT     16.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:20 PM AKDT     3.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
19.21917.314.410.66.94.12.83.25.48.912.715.516.61614.111.27.95.13.74.16.41014.2

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:51 AM AKDT     19.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM AKDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:30 PM AKDT     16.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:34 PM AKDT     3.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
18.819.618.315.612.38.652.72.957.911.314.516.516.514.912.49.66.64.34.16.29.412.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.