Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kenai, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday March 25, 2017 5:44 AM AKDT (13:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:29AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 331 Am Akdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun night..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Mon..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kenai, AK
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location: 60.55, -151.23     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251158
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
358 am akdt Sat mar 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Dominant high pressure remains over the bering with a trough to
the east stretching through southcentral alaska. This setup has
brought showery conditions to the gulf but the majority of the
southern mainland is seeing no precip. Outflow winds also continue
under this pattern with areas from cook inlet west continuing to
see clear skies. West of the ridging a front has stalled over the
central and western aleutians and is bringing gale force winds to
the area.

Model discussion
The models are in good agreement in the short term but are
struggling with low placement with lows approaching the area in
the mid term. One of the lows moves towards the eastern aleutians
Sunday afternoon then the models have various tracks of the low
with the NAM being the most middle ground solution. Another low
tracks into the gulf Sunday night where the models have a somewhat
similar track but are struggling with timing as it moves towards
the kenai peninsula.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level trough continues to be the dominate feature over
southcentral alaska through the weekend. Look for the threat of
snow showers to continue along the gulf coast and copper river
basin through Sunday night. Snow showers will likely spread west
across the gulf, affecting kodiak island and the eastern kenai
tonight and into Sunday. Otherwise, continued offshore flow with
mostly sunny skies for the anchorage bowl through today before
some mid-to-high clouds move into the area by Sunday. Meanwhile,
the gradient begins to weaken across much of the region this
afternoon, so gap flows across the matsu valleys, and north
gulf/eastern kenai should start to weaken. Gradients increase
again Sunday night, so expect an up tick in gap flows.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Outside of some possible cirrus clouds along the kuskokwim delta
coast, cloudless skies remain the theme of the forecast in
southwest alaska. The atmosphere continues to remain bone dry at
all levels. Thus, despite the presence of a persistent 80 kt
northerly jet over the area which normally would transport
cloud cover through the upper-levels from great distances, the
dessicated atmosphere will continue to make for full sunshine
during the day and excellent star-gazing at night. The westward
retreat of upper level ridging and advance of a trough over the
weekend will reinforce the cold, dry air over the area. As a
result, high temperatures will drop a couple degrees each day for
the next few days area-wide. The winds will stay breezy enough to
continue to hold lows above 0, though wind chills will generally
drop to between 5 below and 15 below at night.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Much like executing effective defense in a boxing ring, the
upper-level pattern over the bering will trade one block for
another as a disintegrating omega block quickly transitions into a
rex block over the next couple days. Ridging aloft over the
northern bering will move north of a persistent low and associated
troughing south of the aleutians. The result will effectively be
more of the same. Steady easterly winds will persist over much of
the bering between the high over the northern bering and the lows
south of the aleutians. One change from previous forecasts is the
bering high now looks to be strong enough to keep much of the
moisture associated with the low south of the aleutians, with only
widely scattered shower activity at most now expected in the
eastern aleutians on Sunday. Off-and-on rain will also continue
for the central and western aleutians through the weekend
associated with the frontal boundary between the high over the
bering and the lows over the north pacific.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Ridging over the bering will slowly retreat to the north as a
front slides north across the aleutian chain through the end of
the weekend. Real change continues to be advertised by all models
early into next week. All guidance has shifted the focus of a low
that would have only impacted the panhandle to bringing the low
much farther north and into the gulf. There are still some pretty
sizable differences amongst the guidance types that detail how
strong this low will be and what, if any, precipitation may fall
across the anchorage area. At this time, confidence is too low to
go any higher than a slight chance of snow. The bottom line is
that the pattern is now on the verge of change and the days of
cold and endless Sun are going on a brief hiatus. The longwave
patter undergoes a bit of a shift following this early week system
and will set us up to be in a little bit of a favorable pattern
to see systems beyond the forecast timeframe reaching all of
southcentral.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 155 172 173 174 175 177 178.

Heavy freezing spray... 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jw
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 13 mi44 min NE 9.9 G 16 24°F 1004.3 hPa (-0.9)
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 48 mi44 min N 7 G 8.9 22°F 1005.3 hPa (-1.1)1°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK2 mi51 minNE 610.00 miFair14°F1°F58%1004.5 hPa
Soldotna, AK12 mi48 minENE 310.00 miFair0°F-9°F65%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4CalmE3CalmNE4N6NE6N9N6N8NW5W7NW6NW3NW3NW3N8N11N10N6N6NE6
1 day agoE4N3NE3CalmNE4CalmNE3CalmNW6W6W6W8NW8NW7NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmN3NE4NE5N3NE4
2 days agoNE3E3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN7NW5N6NW7W7W7W6W3CalmSW3N3N3E3E3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai City Pier, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Kenai City Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM AKDT     18.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:30 AM AKDT     3.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM AKDT     19.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:33 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM AKDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.29.714.417.618.217.114.811.5853.43.56.310.915.718.819.117.614.8116.83.10.6-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:00 AM AKDT     19.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM AKDT     3.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM AKDT     19.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM AKDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.610.81518.319.518.415.6128.34.93.34.581215.718.619.718.515.311.16.82.8-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.