Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Salamatof, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:47AMSunset 11:05PM Friday May 24, 2019 9:21 AM AKDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ139 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 330 Am Akdt Fri May 24 2019
Today..S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salamatof, AK
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location: 60.57, -152.13     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241231
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
431 am akdt Fri may 24 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A weakening upper level low is positioned over the northern gulf
this morning, as high pressure sits over the southern gulf. This
has brought a few showers to coastal areas and increased cloud
cover for southcentral. IR imagery shows a vertically stacked low
spinning in the north pacific south of dutch harbor. The
associated warm front is lifting northward towards the central
aleutian chain, along with gusty conditions (including gales south
of adak) shown on the ascat scatterometer winds. Quiet conditions
remain over the bering as high pressure extends from the western
aleutians to the central bering.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
through the weekend as the forecast shifts to a wetter pattern.

There is generally good timing agreement for precipitation
associated with a low moving into southcentral on Saturday and
also with the front moving across the western aleutians on
Saturday morning.

Aviation
Panc... A few sprinkles at the terminal this morning will end by
the afternoon. Mid level clouds should remain above 5000 feet with
light winds through the TAF period.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weather front extending east to west across southcentral weakens
today as the surface low over the gulf heads eastward. Clouds
will be slow to clear across southcentral today as the front
weakens in place. Isolated showers will likely linger through
this evening with more of a focus near the mountains this
afternoon. The afternoon and evening sea breezes will be the
dominate wind regimes today. A weather front heading in the gulf
today brings rain and gales to the western gulf late tonight early
Saturday. The front continues north to over the gulf coast early
Sunday. The brunt of the rain will remain over coasts. However,
warm advection and diminishing cross-barrier flow Saturday night
to spread west of the chugach. Local gap flows(turnagain arm, knik
river valley, copper river) should be fairly pronounced on
Saturday as coastal ridge builds and interior thermal trough
strengthens. Gap flows should diminish overnight Saturday, though
the copper river wind will linger on into Sunday afternoon evening.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Surface ridging across the northern bering expands eastward over
the southwest on Friday bringing drier conditions with clearing
skies during the afternoon. The next front moves to bristol bay
early Saturday morning spreading rain inland along with gusty
easterly flow as the low center lifts over the central bering. The
subtropical jet noses over the southwest at the same time
advecting abundant moisture up from the north pacific. This set
up, combined with significant shortwaves sent ahead of the parent
low over the bering, supports widespread rain despite the strong
low level easterly flow. Rain and wind taper down Sunday morning
as the storm systems energy propagates northward toward the bering
strait. On Sunday afternoon, showers will develop across the
region as a low level southerly jet increases with another
disturbance moving up from the base of the trough that broadens
over the bering during the weekend.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Ridging over much of the bering this morning slowly erodes as two
low pressure systems work against it heading into the weekend.

Patchy fog along the eastern bering this morning improves by the
afternoon as the front currently across the central and eastern
aleutians pushes across the alaska peninsula. This front will
produce gale force marine winds as it moves through to the
southern bering. The frontal boundary outruns the upper level
parent low by Saturday evening and washes out as it progress to
the northern bering. A second gale force front will be pushing
through the western bering during the same time... However, this
system tracks eastward today through Saturday morning before
taking a southward turn Saturday afternoon.

The upper low driving the front across the eastern bering today
becomes the dominant system on Sunday. The core of this system
slowly meanders to near the pribilof islands on Sunday. The
southerly stream on the eastern periphery of this low keeps gusty
flow and higher chances for rain from the pribilofs east through
the end of the weekend... With a drier northerly flow pattern
across the western waters.

Marine (days 3 through 5 Sunday through Tuesday)
Winds will be subsiding on Sunday throughout all marine areas, as
the low that brought the winds in will be weakening. Some small
craft advisory level winds will remain in the gulf of alaska and
western bering, but should quiet as the day progresses. Past
Sunday there are not any significant impacts to marine areas.

Confidence is high in the forecast for quiet weather.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Sunday through Thursday)
It's still looking like a transition to a wetter pattern for
later in memorial day weekend. While the weekend will start with
nice weather in the short term, Saturday into Sunday we are
expecting a shift to wet weather for the remainder of the holiday
weekend. The culprit for dampening this weekend is a broad area of
low pressure moving north into the western gulf of alaska. More
details to follow in the coming days with this system.

As far as the rest of the extended forecast, model confidence is
high enough to know we will transition to a wet pattern and
generally stay that way through Thursday. However, model
confidence is not high enough to know specifics with lows and
their associated fronts at this time. Therefore, an ensemble of
models was used to depict the general sense of wet and cool weather
for the next week or so.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 120 130 131 132 137 138 150 155
160 165 174 176 178 180 352 414.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Alh ja
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
marine long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi40 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 46°F1023.8 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 77 mi52 min E 5.1 46°F 1022 hPa43°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK47 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F37°F63%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE11NE10NE12N11N11N12N11
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2 days agoS11SW12SW10SW11SW11SW11SW9SW10SW9SW9SW12SW9S9S9S7CalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Drift River Terminal, Alaska
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Drift River Terminal
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Fri -- 02:40 AM AKDT     6.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM AKDT     15.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:29 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:07 PM AKDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:31 PM AKDT     14.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.27.96.46.27.61012.514.615.51513.110.47.34.52.31.42.14.271012.714.214.313.5

Tide / Current Tables for Tuxedni Channel, Alaska
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Tuxedni Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM AKDT     5.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:04 AM AKDT     14.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:56 PM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:31 PM AKDT     13.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.85.55.679.211.513.314.113.511.89.26.43.821.42.24.16.69.311.512.812.91210.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.