Sunday, January21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:39AMSunset 4:42PM Sunday January 21, 2018 3:55 AM AKST (12:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:12AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 355 Am Akst Sun Jan 21 2018
.small craft advisory today...
Today..W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Mon..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 210125
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
425 pm akst Sat jan 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern consists of a strong blocking ridge over
the central bering sea, and a north-to-south oriented trough over
the central alaska mainland. There is also a ridge over northwest
canada and a negatively tilted trough southwest of the western
aleutians and southwest bering. Strong northerly flow over the
eastern bering and alaska west coast is pushing cold air into the
area. An upper level low is forming near kodiak island on the
southern end of the alaska trough. The atmosphere is generally
quite dry, but there are a few showers over the gulf of alaska and
kodiak island. There is also some moisture sneaking westward
along the gulf coast with the leading edge just east of cape
suckling. A fairly strong front stretches from the western
aleutians northwestward across the southwest bering sea.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement with the synoptic
features and they continue to exhibit good run to run continuity.

The biggest forecast challenge continues to be the duration and
the areal coverage of the fog and stratus in the copper river
basin, which the models typically do not handle very well. This
will also have an impact on the temperature forecasts for that

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2: Sunday &

calm, clear, and quiet conditions will continue over much of
southcentral tonight as weak upper level winds keep any
disturbances away. The biggest forecast challenge tonight is how
strong the winds across portions of the region become and where
there is little wind, how low will the temperatures drop. A much
drier 00z anchorage sounding suggests that fog and low stratus
should not be much issue at all around anchorage. Some of the
more sheltered areas like the interior valleys between portage and
seward, the knik river valley, and the copper river basin may
still see some patchy fog. Much of the susitna valley, east
anchorage, and the sterling highway through kenai and soldotna
should get below zero tonight, especially if the winds stay nearly
calm. West anchorage should see enough of a northerly breeze to
keep temperatures warmer tonight than east anchorage.

On Sunday, a weak low that is currently over the gulf will track
northwestward towards the north gulf coast and prince william
sound. With southeasterly upper level flow, some of the moisture
will intrude inland from the coast. This will increase the clouds
from east to west, followed by a threat for a little snow. The
most snow will fall from girdwood through whittier and the kenai
mountains starting Sunday afternoon and continuing through the
overnight. General accumulations of 1-3 inches with isolated
higher totals are possible along the seward highway. The snow
threat Sunday evening will even approach anchorage. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far west the snow gets, but
enough of the model guidance suggests some flakes reaching the
anchorage bowl Sunday evening that a chance of snow was introduced
into the forecast. If any snow does fall in anchorage, a dusting
at most is all that is expected in the bowl, with perhaps up to an
inch possible at higher elevations of the hillside. Plentiful
cloud cover Sunday night should prevent most locations from seeing
much colder temperatures as anchorage continues to wait for its
first below zero reading of the winter.

Unsettled conditions with chances for snow showers will continue
across the gulf and prince william sound through Monday with
plenty of cloud cover area-wide. Better potential for snow returns
to anchorage and the surrounding areas on Tuesday. More on that
in the long term discussion below.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Over the next couple of days the story remains the same for the
southwest mainland, as arctic air pours into the region and causes
persistent offshore flow and declining temperatures. This will
continue to push both daytime highs and lows downward with
increasing threats for bitter wind chills approaching -40f. This
will be most likely where the winds are the strongest, so it is
likely the kuskokwim delta will realize the coldest wind chills.

The one change in this forecast is it seems more likely that a
weak low will move into the kuskokwim delta, bringing some light
snow to the coast this evening. Otherwise, cold and windy
conditions with clearing skies will resume on Sunday and carry
into early next week.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure settling over the central part of the bering sea
will induce more of an easterly flow component as cold air pours
over the eastern bering sea and a gale force front moves into the
western aleutians then stalls. This front looks like it will not
make further progress than the western aleutians, so increasing
winds to gale force will be the biggest impact with this front.

With cold air pouring over the bering sea, expect freezing spray
to be a threat from the pribilof islands eastward.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Monday night, the main
feature of interest will be a very cold upper vortex situated over
the north slope of alaska. Another low will be in the vicinity of
the gulf of alaska. A deep arctic air mass will be in place over
all of alaska, although the bitterly cold air will still be north
of the alaska range. The first item of interest will be the
potential for snowfall across southcentral. As the upper trough
digs south and interacts with the gulf low, this will set up a
potential favorable setup for light snow. However, the degree of
phasing between the two upper troughs is rather low confidence at
this point with some runs of the gfs, NAM and ECMWF showing the
possibility of weak deformation banding from the kenai peninsula
northward. Run-to-run consistency is low, so stuck with a
continuation of broad chance snow pops until there is more clarity
with regards to the interaction of the two troughs.

Eventually, the cold upper vortex will move south into bristol bay
and dig into the southwest gulf of alaska, bringing down all of
the deep arctic air with it. This will bring the coldest
temperatures to southwest alaska, but southcentral will also drop
well below average region wide by Wednesday and likely lasting
through Thursday. As the low forms over the gulf, this will
introduce more of an easterly flow component aloft, and with
offshore flow, will likely keep precipitation predominantly along
the coast with much lesser chances inland. Temperatures will
moderate some by the weekend, but will generally run below average
across all of southern alaska.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.


gale 130, 138, 150, 155, 165, 177, 178, 180
heavy freezing spray 121, 130, 138, 139, 150, 160, 165, 180, 181
synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Jw
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Ja

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi65 min W 18 G 23 27°F 39°F1 ft996.9 hPa (-1.4)18°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi25 min NNE 29 G 31 31°F 994.9 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi37 min 44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi62 minW 610.00 miFair17°F10°F74%999.9 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW4W6NW6W4W6W6W5W6W64NW7W7W7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4W4NW3NW43W5W4NW5W5
2 days agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W3W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Applegate Island
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Sun -- 04:00 AM AKST     11.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:33 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM AKST     3.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:11 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:30 PM AKST     11.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:16 PM AKST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:30 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Culross Bay
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Sun -- 03:46 AM AKST     11.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:34 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:48 AM AKST     3.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:12 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:16 PM AKST     11.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:09 PM AKST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:30 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.