Sunrise 4:59 AM   Sunset 10:53 PM Moonrise 3:48 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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PKZ724 Northwest Prince William Sound- 320 Am Akdt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory tonight and Sunday - .
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Sun - NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.Sun night - E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tue - E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Wed - NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 181311 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 511 AM AKDT Sat May 18 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging will build north out of the Gulf into Southcentral today, ahead of a low pressure system pushing east of of Bristol Bay into the Western Gulf of Alaska. This will bring seasonal temperatures and relatively dry conditions today. Southeasterly gap winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected through Turnagain and Knik Arms as well as along the Copper River in the Copper River Basin this afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid 50's to near 60 in the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl as well as the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys this afternoon. Temperatures will reach into the lower to mid 60s in the Copper River Basin. Cloud cover and upslope showers along the coast will increase in coverage Saturday evening through early Saturday night as the pattern turns wetter and relatively cooler for Sunday and Monday.

A strong surface low currently located just west of Bristol Bay with strong upper level support and unseasonably cold upper level low over the Bering Sea will strengthen as it pushes east over the Alaska Peninsula today and over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning.
This will send another period of precipitation back into the island. As the upper low and accompanying surface low move into the western Gulf, precipitation will also overspread the eastern Kenai Peninsula and into the Prince William Sound through Sunday morning. As the upper low hugs the coast and moves inland, shortwaves on its western periphery will allow precipitation to fill in over the Copper River Basin late Sunday into Monday. The Eastern Kenai and Prince William sound will see the heaviest precipitation while the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu will see lesser amounts with drying downslope flow and gusty southeasterly gap winds. The low continues to weaken on Monday as it pushes north and east into the Northeast Gulf of Alaska. Expect generally unsettled weather over Southcentral on Monday especially in the Copper River Basin. Expect decreasing clouds and precipitation on Monday night and Tuesday as a weak ridge builds into the northern Gulf of Alaska.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

The forecast remains on track, with only minor updates to the near-term. Forecast confidence diminishes by Sunday afternoon, so stay tuned as we continue to update the forecast. No major hazards are being monitored at this time.

Diving into the details... an active weather day is in store for Southwest Alaska as two lows merge near Bristol Bay, pushing the resulting front inland. Both the Bethel and King Salmon radars are beginning to pick up on precipitation moving in with the front.
With temperatures hovering at or slightly above freezing, Mekoryuk and Toksook Bay are currently reporting light snow. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will keep precipitation all rain throughout the remainder of the region. In addition to precipitation, expect gusty east to southeasterly winds through Kamishak Gap and across much of Southwest Alaska. Strong winds aloft will also help aid in downslope drying, keeping interior communities along the western slopes of area mountains drier than their coastal counterparts.
Conditions should improve through Sunday as the low and its front depart into the Gulf of Alaska.

Active weather is also expected for parts of the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula today, but to a lesser extent than what's forecast for Southwest Alaska. With the front having already moved past it, the Eastern Aleutians will stay relatively dry. Expect scattered showers but no steady precipitation. Instead, the main focus for the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will be gusty northwesterly winds, aided by an incredibly robust upper level shortwave rotating around the low. Further west, the Western Aleutians will see steady, light rain and winds to small craft speeds (25 kt) as an occluded front moves through. The Central Aleutians, situated between these two systems, should enjoy a fairly quiet Saturday.

Another storm system is on the way for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands by Sunday afternoon/evening (and reaching Southwest Alaska by Monday afternoon), but forecast confidence is currently low. There remains some model discrepancies as two lows phase: one moving eastward from Kamchatka Peninsula and another moving in from the northern Bering Sea. The strength of the resulting low seems to be decently well-handled; there is consensus that a broad 990-1000 mb will form, with winds to small craft speed and a relatively weak moisture tap. However, the timing and position of this low is still subject to uncertainty.
Stay tuned as we update the forecast.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A persistent northwest to southeast oriented longwave trough will remain over the Bering with waves of lows moving into the northern Gulf during much of the first part of the extended period. This series of low pressure systems that move through the Alaska Peninsula and into Kodiak Island will bring coastal rain showers and interior cloudy and isolated rain showers. Toward the end of next week, a stronger low pressure system will move through Shemya into the Bering Sea and push the longstanding trough eastward. Indications are that the persistent trough and strong low could move in a more northeastward direction as high pressure progresses northward through the north Pacific.

- DJ


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and are expected to bend over the terminal with gusts to 25kts possible late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Applegate Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:14 AM AKDT     3.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:55 AM AKDT     8.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:05 PM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:16 PM AKDT     10.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Applegate Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Culross Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:07 AM AKDT     3.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:41 AM AKDT     8.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM AKDT     10.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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