Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 10:16 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 4:08 PM

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FXAK69 PAFG 041154 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 354 AM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances moving across the mainland over the next several days will support isolated to scattered rain and snow showers south of the Brooks Range and snow north of the Brooks Range. Strong northeast winds persist through Sunday from Cape Lisburne through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island.
Areas of blowing snow reducing visibility to one half mile or less expected for the eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range through Sunday morning. Strong and gusty southerly winds in the Alaska Range passes combine with low relative humidity values to produce Red Flag conditions near Delta Junction and Fort Greely this afternoon. Flood Watches remain in effect for the Yukon River at Circle as well as along the Tanana River from Salcha to Fairbanks.
A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Tanana River near the Rosie Creek Subdivision.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a longwave trough extends southwest from the northern Canadian Archipelago to the central Aleutians, with several closed lows in the flow, one centered 200 NM north of Kaktovik, another centered between the Pribilofs and Cold Bay, and the third over the western Kamchatka Peninsula. Meanwhile, weak ridging remains over the eastern Interior and eastern Siberia. The northernmost low elongates and weakens through Sunday, while a piece of energy breaks off and develops into a new low near the Bering Strait Sunday. As this new low pushes south of the Bering Strait, the low that was southeast of the Pribilofs moves southeast to the Gulf of Alaska and weakens through Monday. The low over western Kamchatka moves southeast of the Aleutians into the northern Pacific.

At the surface, a 986 mb low 100 NM east of the Pribilofs moves east to the Alaskan Peninsula and weakens to 989 mb by Saturday afternoon, continuing east to be 991 mb near Kodiak Sunday morning and 992 mb in the central Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. A 1033 mb 600 NM north of Utqiagvik this morning dives southwest to be 275 NM northwest of Utqiagvik Sunday morning and weakens to 1028 mb. The high pressure slowly shifts eastward through Monday to be centered 250 NM north of Utqiagvik. Weak troughing will persist north of the Alaska Range.

Models...
The 04/00Z models initialized fair against the 00Z RAOBS are in agreement with the overall synoptic pattern. Differences in the details aloft begin to emerge late Saturday into Sunday with the closed upper level low that develops and moves southwest across the Bering Strait. The GFS is the slowest and furthest northeast with the low by Sunday afternoon centered near Kivalina, while the ECMWF, NAM, and Canadian are clustered over the Bering Strait. By Monday morning through, the spread among deterministic solutions increases greatly in the placement of the low as it moves south of St Lawrence Island, elsewhere, models are in fair agreement. At the surface, by 06Z models underestimated the pressure gradient over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island to Point Hope by 2 to 3 mb, resulting in winds overachieving. Adjusted winds up by a couple of knots out west to account for the tighter gradient.
Otherwise, went with a general model blend for this forecast package, with hand edits for winds and RH in the Alaska Range to Delta Junction.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A series of upper level disturbances will support periods of snow across the North Slope and Brooks Range through early next week.
A disturbance moving west across the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range through Sunday will bring accumulating snow of 2 to 3 inches accompanied by northeast winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible for the eastern Arctic Coast and the Brooks Range.
These gusty winds will produce periods of blowing snow, reducing visibility to one half mile or less at times and Winter Weather Advisories remain in place through noon Sunday. Winds diminish Sunday afternoon over these areas. Over the northwest Arctic Coast northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph will persist through Sunday night from Point Lay west, with lighter winds anticipated Monday.
Temperatures trend upwards.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Upper level troughing remains the dominant player, supporting isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend and into early next week. Snow accumulations will generally be light and along the coast and northwestern Interior. Across much of the western Interior, precip will take the form of rain. Tight pressure gradient persists through the Bering Strait through Monday, resulting in northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph stretching from Point Hope to the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island, further south, northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph expected along the coast. Despite the strong winds, areas of blowing snow will be limited to areas where falling snow is occurring. Elsewhere, visibility will likely stay above a mile due to a crust on the snowpack.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Gusty southerly gap flow is ongoing in the Alaska Range this morning with gusts up to 60 mph expected in the eastern Alaska Range passes today, diminishing this afternoon. Issued a Wind Advisory for the eastern Alaska Range through 4 pm today. The gusty winds combined with low relative humidity values will result in red flag conditions for areas near Delta Junction and Fort Greeley today. An upper level disturbance pushing northwest across the northern Interior and Brooks Range will support scattered showers today, primarily north and west of a line from Chalkyitsik to Livengood to Tanana. Another disturbance pushing northwest out of the Yukon Sunday evening and Monday will bring another round of showers across the Interior and increasing northeast winds.
Temperatures remain warm today slowly cooling Sunday and Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea remains the dominant player through the end of the work week, while ridging builds north into British Columbia. This set up supports scattered showers across northern Alaska. Temperatures slowly trend upwards for the latter half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for areas near Delta Junction and Fort Greeley this afternoon, where low relative humidity values combine with strong southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph (up to 60 mph in the eastern AK Range passes this morning) are expected with relative humidity values falling to near 20 percent this afternoon. Winds diminish by late this afternoon. Rain and snow showers will be possible from early the mid week with slightly cooler temperatures and higher humidity values.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River broke up at Eagle Friday afternoon, and the breakup front is now at the Tatonduk River. The breakup front will likely be in Circle between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon and a Flood Watch remains in effect for Circle through Monday afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in place for the Tanana River from Salcha to Fairbanks as flooding due to snowmelt remains possible. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Tanana River near the Rosie Creek subdivision, where water is encroaching on some roads.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ937-949.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808-810.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-812-814-850-853-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.

Bethel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:37 AM AKDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM AKDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:41 PM AKDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bethel, Alaska, Tide feet

Apokak Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:49 AM AKDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:29 AM AKDT     11.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM AKDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:07 PM AKDT     9.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apokak Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


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