Sunrise 5:03 AM   Sunset 10:48 PM Moonrise 12:59 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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FXAK69 PAFG 162244 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 244 PM AKDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upcoming weather pattern will generally favor more calm conditions across the West Coast, Interior and Northern Slope. Temperatures should remain seasonable throughout the next few days, with some above normal temperatures possible early next week across the Interior. The strong storm across the West Coast will continue to weaken with only some lingering precipitation across the Western Brooks Range into the Lisburne Peninsula and the Seward Peninsula.

DISCUSSION
Upper-air analysis from this afternoon continues to show ridging over the Eastern Interior that extends into the Beaufort Sea.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is moving over northern Siberia that will gradually dig towards the Bearing Sea. By Friday, another low will develop in Gulf of Alaska that will cut off the upper-level ridge across the Eastern Interior to an extent. This weak trough quickly pushes further to the south and east into Saturday with the upper-level ridge building back towards the Gulf of Alaska. By this time, the trough moving through the Bearing Sea will be approaching the Alaska Peninsula by late Saturday evening. This should allow enough moisture to return northward that we could see some isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday for parts of the Interior.
Aside from this, the main story for the Interior will be the warming temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

For the northern slope, southerly winds responsible for the above normal temperatures will began will begin to weaken as the pressure gradient begins to relax some. Winds will gradually shift back to the east to northeast by Saturday with temperatures falling back to a more normal range.

As mentioned above, precipitation will remain possible this evening for the West Coast and Western Interior before tapering off later tonight. The aforementioned low moving into the Bearing Sea could bring some rain and snow showers to St. Lawrence Island on Friday, however, the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta region should remain fairly dry with only low end PoPs. Aside from this, much of the West Coast remains dry and quiet as we move into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
Min RH values across the Eastern Interior have remained low today, with values in the upper teens to upper 20s while the remainder of the interior was in the 30 to 40 percent range. RH values will increase some on Friday, especially along the Alaska Range with similar conditions remaining for Saturday. While things will be somewhat dry, winds should remain low enough to not warrant a significant fire weather concern at this time into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
A crew went to the Yukon River yesterday and reported the river was flowing very well at the Dalton Highway despite some large chunks still moving downstream. Most of the rivers north of the Yukon River to the Koyukuk River remain mostly ice free with some ice chunks on the banks. Aside from that, things continue to show improvement.

We did have some reports come in today that the Nome River in Nome has some minor flooding that we believe was due to the the recent storm system that moved through and snow melt.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-812-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.

Bethel
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Thu -- 12:12 AM AKDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM AKDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM AKDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:19 PM AKDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bethel, Alaska, Tide feet

Apokak Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:12 AM AKDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM AKDT     10.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:18 PM AKDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM AKDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apokak Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Bethel/Anchorage,AK