Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 10:11 PM Moonrise 4:12 AM   Moonset 12:30 PM

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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Fri through Sat - NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.Sun - NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 021336 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 536 AM AKDT Thu May 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

GOES imagery shows a large upper-level low currently across the Gulf of Alaska and far northeast Pacific Ocean. The axis of precipitation along the front currently stretches from the north Pacific into Kodiak Island and across the Kenai Peninsula. Rainfall amounts over the last day have ranged from approximately 0.8" in Kodiak to 0.6" at a RAWS site south of Kenai Fjords NP. Farther west, strong low/mid-level southeast flow has downsloped across the mountains and resulted in much of the western Kenai northwards considerably drier.
The 00z AFC sounding sampled this well, showing dry air in the lowest 4000ft of the atmosphere, with abundant moisture / clouds above.

The weather the next few days will be largely the same as the last 24 hours. Precipitation across Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula will taper off this evening as the parent low shifts southeast.
However, in true Alaska weather fashion, another low and associated front will quickly move into the place of the existing system on Friday into the weekend. Precipitation will pick back up for Kodiak and the coastal Kenai Range, with everywhere north/west of the mountains largely maintaining dry, though cloudy, weather given the downsloping flow. Temperatures will be near climatological averages, though with nights slightly warmer than average due to cloud cover.

-Brown

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

A weakening front continues to lift into Southwest Alaska, producing some light rain along the northern Bristol Bay coast this morning. Returns on the King Salmon radar suggest widespread virga across Bristol Bay but surface observations are only intermittently recording precipitation at the ground in the vicinity of Dillingham. Precipitation will gradually wind down through the day associated with the front, though some isolated showers are forecast to develop across portions of Southwest Alaska this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, Southwest Alaska remains mostly dry until the arrival of the next front from the Bering Sea on Friday.

This front, pushing into the central Bering Sea/Aleutians this morning, is bringing rain and gusty southeasterly to easterly winds to these areas. This afternoon, the front pushes into the eastern Aleutians while its parent low lags behind, just beginning to track into the western Aleutians, where it will bring more showery rainfall. The low, however, is accompanied by relatively colder air aloft (850 mb temperatures around -6 degrees C), which means that as the front and low advance steadily eastward, the Pribilof Islands are likely to see snow beginning late tonight.
Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of wet snow are likely in Saint Paul and Saint George. By Friday afternoon, the front reaches Southwest Alaska, leading to more significant precipitation chances and cooler temperatures than have been seen with the current, weaker front moving through the area yesterday and today.

Of particular note will be the relatively cooler air associated with the low. As the front lifts north through Southwest Alaska, colder air will arrive from south to north, with warmer air remaining in place over Interior/Western Alaska. This will mean that though precipitation begins as rain on Friday, by Friday night precipitation will switch over to snow for some parts of Bristol Bay for a time. The Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley will, at least initially, remain warmer and all rain as the warmer air wraps around the north side of the low and out over the northern Bering Sea. The front weakens for Saturday, allowing precipitation to become more showery and colder air working north will allow for some snow potential in the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. Precipitation gradually winds down through the weekend as the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska. Looking ahead to the beginning of next week, there is a good chance a deep trough digs over the northern Bering Sea, bringing cold air to much of the Bering and dropping temperatures into the 20s and 30s for portions of Southwest Alaska.

CQ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Active, but not overly impactful weather, is expected for the long term forecast. Generally, expect widespread precipitation for the Southern Mainland as an occluding low dissipates in the northern Gulf. An upper low moving from the Arctic into the Bering Sea will bring a cool down for Southwest Alaska early next week.
By the latter half of Monday, this upper low phases with another low in the North Pacific, strengthening it as it moves towards the Southern Mainland through midweek. However, model agreement diminishes considerably around Monday, leading to lower confidence in the evolution of this system.

Diving into the details... Sunday begins with a broad longwave trough extending across much of Alaska. A vertically stacked low over Southwest Alaska will gradually move into the northern Gulf through Sunday. The low's front will bring steady rain along the north Gulf coast, with inland areas in Southwest and Southcentral staying much drier due to downsloping. Instead, these inland locations will likely see widespread showers due to robust vorticity associated with this upper low, with the potential for stronger convection Sunday afternoon and evening as an easterly shortwave transits the Copper River Basin. Otherwise, expect outflow winds to pick up Sunday across Alaska Peninsula and around the Gulf.

By Monday, a rather compact upper level low slides south from the Bering Strait into the Bering Sea, drawing down colder air for Southwest Alaska. While a bit chillier than what we're seeing now, overnight lows remain relatively high at around 20-30 degrees for Southwest Alaska. Precipitation generally tapers off across the region on Monday as the Gulf low dissipates and moisture remains relatively limited for the Bering Sea low.

By Tuesday, poorer model agreement leads to lower forecast confidence. The main point of contention between models is how the Bering upper low phases with an upper low moving towards the Aleutians from the North Pacific. For the forecast, have leaned towards the consensus where these two lows phase, leading to a strengthened surface low with stronger winds and higher moisture content as it moves towards the Southern Mainland for Wednesday.
The alternate scenario keeps the surface low weaker, with much less impactful weather expected. Neither scenario looks particularly hazardous, but we'll continue to monitor trends and refine forecast details in the coming days.

-KC

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

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Ellamar
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Thu -- 01:51 AM AKDT     4.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM AKDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:44 PM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:45 PM AKDT     9.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska, Tide feet

Landlocked Bay
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Thu -- 02:16 AM AKDT     4.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM AKDT     9.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:07 PM AKDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM AKDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Alaska, Tide feet

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