Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Possession, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:54PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 10:01 PM AKDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 357 Pm Akdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Tonight..S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Possession, AK
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location: 60.97, -150.21     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 170037
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
437 pm akdt Wed aug 16 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level PV anomaly digging
southward from the northern bering sea to the alaska peninsula.

This upper level forcing caused widespread rainfall across much
of the forecast area today from the alaska peninsula to the north
gulf of alaska coast. To the west of this, high pressure is
dominating the western and central bering and supporting a broad
stratus deck with occasional glimpses of blue skies. In between
these two features, a low level jet is bringing gusty gale force
winds across much of the central bering.

Model discussion
In the short term, models are in fairly good agreement with the
gfs favored for the majority of the forecast. There are some
minor mesoscale differences between the models on the intensity of
the low level jet along cook inlet and through turnagain arm this
evening, but generally these differences are relatively small.

There are also the usual minor differences among the models in the
intensity and location of precipitation, but with fairly strong
forcing and consistency in models, these differences are fairly
small.

Aviation
Panc... Cloudy and rainy conditions across the anchorage airport
will persist for much of the afternoon. There is a chance that a
weak turnagain arm wind will develop this evening, which should
help to lift ceilings and switch flow to a more southerly or
southeasterly direction. However, the timing of this switch is
still uncertain.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A typical cool and rainy august pattern will continue over
much of southcentral through the weekend with a few breaks in
between. A cold upper level low dropping south out of the bering
sea is leading to broad moist southwesterly flow over the region
and widespread precipitation. Rain will continue overnight as the
upper low continues to dig south maintaining the overall
southwesterly flow into southcentral. Precipitation looks to taper
off some by tomorrow morning as the first shortwave moves off to
the northeast. Cold air aloft underneath the low will promote
instability leading to showery conditions, especially over the
mountains and the prince william sound. With enough daytime
heating, isolated thunderstorms may form over the talkeetna
mountains and the copper river basin tomorrow afternoon. The
pattern turns messy by Thursday night as several shortwaves
spinning around the base of the upper trough pass through the area
leading to continued chances of rain and showers over most of the
region throughout the day on Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level trough slowly passing over the region will bring
continued cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions to the area east of
bethel through Thursday. There is an area of clearing that is
developing along the southwest coast which, along with onshore
flow, will aid in the development of patchy fog low stratus
overnight tonight. One limiting factor in this development is the
lack of extensive low clouds over the eastern bering which will
prevent any fog from becoming too dense or widespread. On Friday
a weak shortwave moving over the area will bring continued
cloudcover, however any rainfall from this should be light and
spotty in coverage.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Rain and gale force northwesterly winds will continue streaming
from the central bering into the eastern aleutians ak pen as a
deformation band passes through. Most of the rainfall from this
system will be focused along a narrow area with the deformation
band, which the models are all in good agreement will setup from
just east of the pribilof islands southward into the ak pen. As a
result small changes in the location of this band will have big
implications in how much rain will fall, but at this point there
is reasonable confidence that the heaviest rainfall will occur
along the bering coast of the ak pen. Starting on Friday, the
extra tropical remnants of tropical storm banyan will have
weakened substantially as it moves into the central eastern
aleutians. There is very good confidence that this system will
have weakened to small craft or less by the time it approaches the
chain, with no significant impacts expected to the area.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An active wet pattern continues in the long range forecast
Saturday through late next Tuesday. A merger of two low pressure
systems is anticipated for this upcoming weekend. A broad trough
deepens over the western coast and shifts east through Saturday.

At the same time a fast paced north pacific low races along the
aleutian chain, taking a northward turn Saturday night. The merger
of these two systems will likely bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along the gulf coastal areas and southcentral. Models differ in
timing and track of this merger, therefore a broad brushed
solution of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS were used to update
the inherited forecast. For the bering and southwest mainland, a
short break with drier conditions settles in Sunday as a ridge
builds behind the eastward moving trough over the mainland. On
Monday rain moves back into the southwest coast from a fast diving
low off of kamchatka, and another north pacific front moves into
the western bering aleutians along an eastward progressive
subtropical jet streak.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 155 170 171 179.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Eln
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dek
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 25 mi44 min SSW 6 G 9.9 51°F 57°F1000.4 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 66 mi44 min WSW 20 G 22 54°F 58°F1000 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 72 mi44 min 57°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi69 minSSW 66.00 miRain Fog/Mist50°F46°F89%1000.2 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK20 mi69 minSSW 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F48°F93%1000.6 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE5S4S5S3SW4S4SW4W3CalmSW5W3W3W4CalmSW6S3S3NW3NE7W5S6S6SE4
1 day agoS12
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2 days agoSE6SE8
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Fire Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:48 AM AKDT     25.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:04 AM AKDT     1.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 PM AKDT     24.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM AKDT     6.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
192325.325.924.220.61611.67.73.81.53.5914.519.423.32523.820.616.512.79.26.47

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:55 AM AKDT     28.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM AKDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:10 PM AKDT     25.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM AKDT     8.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
17.823.327.128.226.923.919.814.89.55.134.28.714.820.424.125.524.92319.815.711.58.68.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.