Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beluga, AK

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:08PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 12:52 PM AKDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 334 Am Akdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beluga, AK
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location: 61.05, -151.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191231
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
431 am akdt Wed sep 19 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper air pattern features a closed upper level low over the
bering strait with the trough axis extending into northern alaska.

There is a shortwave ridge over the bering sea ahead of a series
of low amplitude shortwave troughs ejecting off a larger trough
over the kamchatka. Over southcentral, there is a weak leftover
remnant of a once stronger shortwave trough moving through, and
this seems to be enhancing mid level cloud cover and even a few
stray showers over parts of the interior.

Finally, over the western bering, there is a rapidly weakening
warm front which is moving toward the pribilof islands.

Model discussion
The numerical models have gone through quite a few adjustments the
past few days (i.E., they have really been terrible) with respect
to a closed upper low (the one noted above which is currently over
the bering strait) and the associated track of this feature over
the next few days. Previously, most guidance was depicting this
low taking a southward track which would put most of southcentral
alaska under the influence of dry northwest upper level flow. Now,
all the models track this feature farther north which allows for a
much more rapid transition to moist southwest flow from the bering
sea. Long story short, this means clouds and moisture will be
moving into southern alaska much sooner, and it also keeps a more
moist and cloudy pattern in for the weekend. The favored models
were the GFS and nam, although all models are quite similar now
with the general pattern.

Aviation
Panc... Satellite and ground based obs are showing quite a bit of
low stratus around cook inlet this morning. The general thought is
this should clear through daytime heating and reachVFR by this
afternoon. Other than that, expect winds less than 10 knots
through the period with dry weather.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level low that is centered near kotzebue sound this
morning will slowly slide east over the next couple of days, being
centered near anaktuvuk pass Friday morning. As this low moves
eastward, the flow aloft will become more westerly. Much of the
moisture from this system will thus be blocked by the alaska
range, but plenty of clouds will still be over the area. Showers
will mostly be limited to the susitna valley and copper river
basin, although a few could be seen further south. The lingering
low level moisture and longer nights are also allowing some fog to
form this morning, mainly near cook inlet.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A surface ridge currently across the southwest holds across the
region today; however, a low over the bering strait sends short
waves south... Bringing increased rain chances today through
Thursday. A brief break from showers is expected Thursday night
with the upper low exiting east across the central interior. The
next front moves to the coast early Friday morning with gusty
southeasterly flow along the boundary and rain. The pushes across
the kuskokwim valley and bristol bay by late afternoon. Rain
continues through Friday night with the associated surface low
approaching the kuskokwim delta.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The ridge that has been present over the bering and aleutians for
the past few days is losing influence as a weak front pushes
across from a kamchatka low. The next front moves quickly up
from the north pacific tonight, with the low center crossing over
the central aleutians Thursday by morning. Gale force winds
increase over the central aleutians as the front pushes further
north into the bering. The surface low continues to deepen on its
eastward track into Friday. This subtropical system spreads
moderate rain and gusty gale winds as it moves across to the west
coast on Friday. Westerly winds develop in the wake of the low
with with gusty flow along the eastern waters with the low center
nearing nunivak island.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7... Sat through tue)... The
pattern will start to "feel" much more like traditional alaska
fall as we head into the long term portion of the forecast. Models
have sorted out some of the discrepancies over the past few days
and are now in much better agreement through the weekend. The
ridge of high pressure from the bering will drift south and set up
shop over the southern gulf of ak. This will leave the southern
half of the state in zonal flow and open to systems moisture
moving in from the west.

The low pressure center that will push the front through SW and
southcentral ak on Fri will itself follow a similar track on sat.

This system will keep things cloudy and showery. Then a slightly
stronger system will roll up into the area along the alaska
peninsula on sun. With broad and fairly deep SW flow, this pattern
should make for more steady rain Sun and mon.

By early next week, the models really being to diverge, which
leads to decreasing forecast confidence. The primary feature that
will drive the synoptic pattern is the ridge of high pressure
centered near 150w. Some models show this feature building back
over mainland ak and bringing another period of dry (and
potentially sunny) weather by mid-week. But other models keep the
ridge flatter and allow more energy to spill over the top. This
set-up would spell continue active weather (rain, clouds, seasonal
temperatures) across southern ak. Thus, for this latter portion
of the forecast, we have elected to make few changes until there
is more clarity.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 173-177 413.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ahsenmacher
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh ah
long term... Mso


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 28 mi41 min SSW 6 G 7 53°F 56°F1022.9 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 62 mi23 min S 8 G 8.9 49°F 1022.3 hPa49°F
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 69 mi41 min N 2.9 G 2.9 53°F 54°F1022.2 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK33 mi60 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1022.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW6SW6SW7SW6SW7W4SW5SW3SW3CalmCalmSE4SE6SE5CalmS3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoSW3SW3SW5SW3SW4S6SW5SW4S6SW7S9S8S10S5S6S6SE4SE3S4S3S4S4S6S5
2 days agoN7N7N8N8NE7N6N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS3SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for North Foreland, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for East Foreland, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.