Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday September 24, 2017 6:40 PM AKDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:03PMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 306 Pm Akdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue and Tue night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250005
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
405 pm akdt Sun sep 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low centered just south of CAPE newenham
this afternoon. An associated surface low is located just to the
east of the upper low center. A trough extends east-northeast from
the upper low into southcentral alaska. Showers associated with
the low extend from the canadian border westward to the pribilofs.

High pressure is over the western bering sea, but this is quite a
"dirty" ridge with plenty of cloud cover and even some showers
across the bering and aleutians.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement through Monday evening.

After that, they begin to show some differences with exactly how
the low pushing in from the south develops. The ECMWF is quicker
with the eastern side of the front (off the coast of the
panhandle), with the canadian gem a little slower and the GFS and
nam the slowest. The models are also a little different in how
they handle the main surface low south of kodiak island on
Tuesday. This creates some uncertainty in the forecast, and
confidence is thus a bit below normal today.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will likely persist. There
is a risk of some fog tonight. The chances of this developing
depends on cloud cover. If there is some clearing, then fog could
develop.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The remnants of a low over the gulf and prince william sound will
continue to usher moisture into southcentral alaska which will be
most visible in the form of cloud coverage and shallow pockets of
fog. As time elapses, the cold pool of air aloft will continue to
modify and move inland resulting in a drying trend over the
anchorage bowl and the mat-su area. All the while, enhanced
values of precipitable water will continue to advect into the
cordova and valdez region. The robust ridge that is off the coast
of california will continue to amplify with the ridge axis nosing
its way deeper into the gulf of alaska on Monday. This should
bring stable conditions as far north as prince william sound and
the kenai peninsula. Reduced pops over the gulf this forecast
package for Monday. Additionally with weak ridging influencing the
region fog may develop in some areas. By Tuesday the ridge axis
will shift eastward with southerly flow setting up over the gulf
of alaska.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Mon and tue)...

one low will pull away from bristol bay, allowing for a brief
period of drying, before another moves in to take its place. The
first low is currently drifting from north to south just outside
of bristol bay. This will allow some wrap around rain to continue
to fall Monday along portions of the SW coast and in a band from
the alaska range to the yk-delta coast. Late Mon into early tue, a
drying trend will ensue as some induced ridging builds aloft. The
second low will then creep up from the north pacific towards
kodiak island on tue. Rain will start once again over the alaska
peninsula around daybreak. The more widespread impact will be the
increasingly strong northeast winds. Gusts could reach 20 to 30
mph along the bristol bay coastline by afternoon, with even higher
winds expected in shelikof strait. This dry, offshore flow will
also help to keep the rain in check and should actually allow for
most inland places to stay dry on tue.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Mon and
tue)...

northerly flow will be the rule across the bering. This will keep
gusty winds and the potential for showers in the forecast,
especially along the north side of the chain. There is limited
cold air near the bering strait at this time, so not expecting
anything overly strong with near neutral temperature advection. A
ridge with an associated closed high pressure center will drift
towards the western aleutians on mon. This will bring some warmer
temperatures to shemya and attu, and could lead to foggy conditions
developing once again.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Models have come into better agreement with an area of low
pressure moving across kodiak island on Wednesday. The recent
forecast reflects the increase in model agreement with gale force
winds likely across the northwestern gulf of alaska and shelikof
strait Tuesday night and Wednesday. In addition, it looks like a
piece of the subtropical jet will bring an influx of moisture to
allow for some decent rainfall over kodiak island and the gulf
coast. Interior locations will remain showery as the low doesn't
take a favorable track for significant downsloping conditions.

Otherwise, the forecast hasn't deviated much from yesterday in
thinking that the upper level trough digging out across alaska
late this week will quickly be shunted eastward by a transitory
shortwave ridge. Behind this ridge will be yet another upper level
trough but this time it's the arctic jet stream that is
strengthening rather than any subtropical influence. With colder
air expected to move over the bering sea and much of alaska, a
cooler and showery period of weather is expected through the
upcoming weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood warning 121 125.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Ps
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mo
long term... Mc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi40 min WNW 1 G 1.9 49°F 53°F1004.6 hPa (+1.2)
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi40 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 1004.8 hPa (+1.4)
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi40 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 49°F 1004.9 hPa (+1.3)
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi40 min ENE 9.9 G 12 50°F 1004.1 hPa (+1.1)
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi50 min E 19 G 23 51°F 53°F3 ft1002.9 hPa (+0.8)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi40 min E 9.9 G 21 50°F 51°F1004.9 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi44 minW 510.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1007 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5CalmE4CalmE3CalmCalmE4CalmCalmE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmW4W5SW3CalmE4CalmW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3NE3Calm--CalmCalmE3CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmE3E3E3CalmE3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:20 AM AKDT     10.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM AKDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:13 PM AKDT     11.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:29 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:51 PM AKDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.65.27.99.910.810.69.47.55.33.22.12.54.26.79.21111.811.510.285.531.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:59 AM AKDT     11.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM AKDT     2.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:52 PM AKDT     12.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:30 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:29 PM AKDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.66.58.910.511.110.596.84.52.72.135.17.710.111.61211.49.77.44.72.411

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.