Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Friday June 23, 2017 9:31 PM AKDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 9:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 804 Pm Akdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SW wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sun and Sun night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240039
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
439 pm akdt Fri jun 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The ridge of high pressure that stretched from southcentral into
the yukon territory is beginning to move northward in advance of
an upper level low moving into the gulf. This ridge along with
southwest flow up cook inlet created the widespread stratus layer
that developed over southcentral, but this is beginning to break
up into showers as a shortwave along the northern edge of the gulf
low approaches from the south. Just to the north over the upper
yukon valley the thermal trough remains under the upper level
ridge, which is beginning to fire showers and thunderstorms that
may stretch as far south as the eastern alaska range and talkeetna
mountains this afternoon.

Over the southwest mainland the remnants of an old frontal band
brought widespread clouds and rain showers to the kuskokwim valley
today. Just behind this front, clearing has allowed for a few
thunderstorms to begin firing along the spine of the kuskokwim
mountains, which are expected to continue spreading eastward this
afternoon. The environment then changes dramatically to a much
cooler maritime airmass under a ridge of high pressure over the
eastern bering and southwest coast that has brought widespread
stratus to those areas. This ridge is beginning to slide eastward
as a frontal system over the central bering approaches, spreading
rain and small craft advisory level winds into the eastern
aleutians.

Model discussion
The models remain in decent synoptic agreement into early next
week, though there are some difference in the smaller scale
details that are important to the short term forecast. The first
is how much will the shortwave approaching from the gulf erode
away the stratus that has kept the area much cooler and cloudier
this week. The models are in generally good agreement that this
stratus layer will continue to break up into showers with the
shortwave, however they aren't clear on whether this will be
enough to prevent it from redeveloping overnight. The current
forecast indicates that it will not redevelop, which will need to
be monitored this evening. There had also been differences, mainly
from the 12z GFS in the speed that the upper trough over the
northern panhandle will move inland tomorrow. This has since
improved with the 18z runs and the models are now in excellent
agreement in the timing of that feature.

Aviation
Panc... The low marine layer will continue to gradually break up,
with ceilings gradually lifting. ExpectVFR conditions to persist
at the airport, though MVFR conditions may linger in the vicinity.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
There is no shortage of stratus today. According to the models in
some areas the stratus layer is thousands of feet deep. With all
of this stratus in place the Sun has not been able to warm the
surface in many locations and generally speaking temperatures
across the region are well below normal for the third week in
june. With a dome of high pressure in place over the interior
where the clouds break up... The temperatures will rapidly warm but
the stratus has had a tendency to linger longer than expected. All
the while... The models have pinged into a few weak vort lobes
embedded in easterly flow which could result in thunderstorm
activity. This forecast package increased the area of isolated
thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday to include much of the
copper river basin and surrounding mountains.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Satellite imagery this evening shows a remnant of a stretching
deformation zone aloft as an upper trough across northwest alaska
moves eastward. The instability axis is rather narrow and weak,
but it is enough, coupled with continued long summer days, for
very isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain of the
interior mountains and the alaska range. Otherwise, weak sea
breezes are keeping coastal locations stable and dry.

The main story, heading into the weekend, will be increasing upper
level ridging. This will help to stabilize most of the region
and remove the chance of thunderstorms. The one exception will
once again be along the higher terrain around the kuskokwim
valley, but any threats will be rather marginal. Expect warming
conditions through Sunday as the ridge builds out ahead of a
bering warm front which will arrive Sunday evening.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A stacked low circulation just north of shemya is now in the
process of merging with a north pacific warm front. The low will
reinvigorate and strengthen then move into the western bering sea
Saturday night while the warm front moves east through the bering.

This will bring widespread rain and increasing south southeast
winds which will reach low end gale force. The front will reach
the southwest alaska coast by Sunday evening.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An amplifying longwave pattern looks to bring an end to the period
of nice weather over much of southern alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, the broad upper level trough over the bering sea will dig
southward and begin tapping into some moist subtropical air,
while advecting that air northward into the gulf of alaska. This
moist southwest flow regime looks to set up a rather wet period
for much of southern alaska late Monday through Friday of next
week, as a series of systems move into the gulf of alaska and
north toward the gulf coast. There remains pretty remarkable
model agreement with this change in weather pattern so confidence
continues to rise in the change itself and the likelihood of it
persisting through the entire week. However, it is to be expected
that there could be some breaks in the rain and clouds but
overall, wet and cloudy will be the theme for much of next week
and into next weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 170 172.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dek
southcentral alaska... Pz
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Tp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi44 min W 4.1 G 7 55°F 52°F1024.7 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi32 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 55°F 1025 hPa (-1.1)
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi32 min 1024.9 hPa (-1.2)
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi32 min W 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 1025 hPa (-1.4)
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 54°F 54°F1 ft1025.2 hPa (-1.3)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi44 min Calm G 1 53°F 49°F1024.9 hPa

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi36 minE 410.00 miOvercast54°F44°F72%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmE5E4E3E3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5W5W6W8W7W8W5E3E3
1 day agoE3E4E4E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmNE3W8W7SW5W5SW4Calm
2 days agoCalmE4E4E3CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM AKDT     14.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM AKDT     -3.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:42 PM AKDT     11.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM AKDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:30 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.814.214.112.49.25.20.9-2.5-3.9-3.1-0.52.96.59.31111.310.285.12.51.31.94.27.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:03 AM AKDT     14.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM AKDT     -3.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM AKDT     11.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM AKDT     1.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:31 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.714.513.811.583.7-0.3-3-3.7-2.30.84.47.710.211.411.29.77.24.42.21.62.85.58.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.