Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 10:04PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:15 PM AKDT (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 332 Pm Akdt Sat Apr 29 2017
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Sun night..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 300014
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
414 pm akdt Sat apr 29 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low is near haida gwaii this afternoon. A
couple upper waves on the north side of the low are being pulled
westward across the gulf as a trough axis extending from the
eastern bering sea to the southern gulf of alaska lifts northward.

Middleton island radar shows rain over the northern gulf
spreading toward the kenai peninsula. A separate weak wave out
ahead of this is bringing rain to kodiak island. Otherwise, much
of southcentral and southwest alaska have started the day out with
sunshine. A look at area soundings from this morning show
continued instability, particularly in the low levels of the
atmosphere where lapse rates are between 7 and 8 degrees per
kilometer. Combination of upper short-waves and instability means
conditions across the region remain favorable for the growth of
cumulus clouds through the afternoon and evening clouds, with some
showers, especially over and near the mountains.

Meanwhile, out west a large upper level low is centered over the
western aleutians with a weak surface low just to the south and
headed eastward. A nearly stationary front extends from the
eastern aleutians northwestward across the bering sea. The front
had been weakening, but now a surface low tracking up the front
is causing some tightening of pressure gradients and stronger
winds right out ahead of the front.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement with large scale features through
Monday. The primary forecast challenges (which are typical for
this time of year) are areal coverage of convection over
southcentral and southwest alaska along with strength of gap
winds over southcentral.

Focus then shifts to a low developing over the north central
pacific Monday and tracking into the gulf of alaska on Tuesday.

Prior to the 12z model cycle this morning, there was a large
spread in track and intensity of this low among medium range
guidance. The gfs, ecmwf, and canadian solutions are much closer
this morning, indicating a low over the south-central gulf with
central pressure in the 960s or 970s. With increasing confidence
in a deep late season storm system, will trend toward the gfs
solution and bring widespread gale force winds into gulf. If the
deeper solutions verify there is good potential for storm force
winds.

Aviation
Panc... Chances of the turnagain wind coming into the airport this
afternoon and evening are marginal. There will be a bit of a down
inlet pressure gradient, which means most of the wind coming out
of turnagain arm should remain over the inlet. However, with
some sunshine over interior areas along with an unstable air mass
it is possible for some southeast wind to come in - later and
weaker than normal. Winds look notably stronger Sunday
afternoon/evening with a stronger coastal ridge. Otherwise,VFR
conditions will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Sunny skies over southcentral today have given way to diurnal
rain showers over the matsu valley's that will continue this
evening as showers continue to reform over the talkeetna
mountains. The anchorage bowl will however likely remain just far
south of these showers to remain dry through the evening. Further
south, a weakening low near the barren islands will bring rain to
the southern kenai peninsula into Sunday. Beginning on Sunday, a
frontal system moving through the gulf will bring more active
weather to the gulf coast and southcentral into early next week.

The bulk of the rainfall from this system should be confined to
the gulf coast as downsloping along the chugach mountains should
limit any precipitation to a few passing rain showers. Instead,
gap winds will develop along turnagain arm and the knik river
valley, which will also bring gusty southeasterly winds into the
anchorage bowl on Sunday. This cloudier pattern will then continue
into Monday as the front begins to dissipate over the north gulf
coast, allowing gap winds to begin to diminish.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
With high temps around 50 of higher this afternoon convective
showers are expected to last into the evening, but diminish
through the night. Sunday afternoon the front moving through the
bering will move in over southwest alaska bringing some heavier
rainfall to the area that will last into Monday as the front
stalls over the area. Winds will also increase somewhat out of a
southeast direction as the front first pushes into southwest
alaska but will gradually diminish moving towards Monday.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The main low over the central bering is pushing a front across the
bering that is draped over the pribilof islands and alaska
peninsula. The front will continue its easterly track overnight
which will leave showery conditions for most of the bering and
aleutians in its wake. The low will track south on Sunday and as
it passes over the central aleutians Sunday night it will change
course and head east. This will bring northerly winds and
continued light showers to the bering and aleutians.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
There is fair agreement amongst the models of a deep low moving
into the gulf around Tuesday evening. However, they are struggling
with the intensity of the low which could be the difference
between a gale force low and a storm force low. For now there is
higher confidence in the low remaining gale force. Regardless,
this system looks to bring rain to areas around southcentral
alaska into Thursday, with the heaviest for the north gulf coast.

Meanwhile ridging will have moved in over the bering with another
system trying to approach the aleutians from the west, but being
largely held at bay by the ridge.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 130.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sb
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Dk
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi46 min W 6 G 9.9 48°F 46°F1010.9 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi46 min SSW 9.9 G 11 46°F 1011.2 hPa
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi46 min 1011.1 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi46 min W 8.9 G 9.9 45°F 1011.2 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi86 min W 5.8 G 5.8 44°F 45°F1 ft1011.8 hPa (-1.8)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 48°F 43°F1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi20 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds48°F28°F46%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W7SW3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7W7SW7SW7W6W7W8
1 day agoW11W8W12W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W6W6W10W13SW9W10W11
2 days agoW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W6W7W8SW9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
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Sat -- 12:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:32 AM AKDT     13.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM AKDT     -3.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM AKDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:19 PM AKDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
69.312.113.713.812.39.45.61.7-1.5-3-2.30.13.46.79.410.8119.97.95.331.62

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:09 AM AKDT     14.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM AKDT     -2.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM AKDT     11.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:57 PM AKDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.310.6131413.511.48.14.20.4-2.2-3-1.61.34.8810.211.2119.57.24.62.51.82.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.