Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:54AMSunset 6:34PM Thursday October 19, 2017 1:17 AM AKDT (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 340 Pm Akdt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory through Thursday night...
Tonight..NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri and Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun through Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190020
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
420 pm akdt Wed oct 18 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The main feature on water vapor satellite is a complex upper low
spinning in the eastern gulf of alaska. A very zonal jet stream
lies south of the aleutian chain, driving the predominant storm
track from the northwest pacific straight eastward into the gulf.

While most of the active weather associated with the gulf system
is out of our area, the main impact on the mainland has been to
draw a colder air mass in from the interior of the state, while
increasing winds along the gulf coast through favored gaps in the
mountains. Much of southcentral alaska is clear as cold advection
dries the air mass out, but the upper trough is currently keeping
a mid-level deck on the west side of the alaska aleutian range.

Much of the bering sea is engulfed in instability showers as
arctic air streams over the warmer water. The next system to
progress across the chain is beginning to affect the western
aleutians.

Model discussion
Guidance in the short term is in great agreement with the
evolution of the synoptic flow. There are differences with low
positions within the complex gulf circulation but effects on our
forecast are the same in any solution. The biggest differences in
the models come late Thursday into Friday as the upper level
trough captures some energy from the gulf over the eastern portion
of the copper river basin. Some guidance shows a prolonged light
snow for the mccarthy area while other are much drier. High
resolution guidance will be utilized for this forecast package to
capture outflow winds along the north gulf coast a little better.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Much of southcentral ak will settle into a dry northwest flow
pattern through Thursday evening as a large low over the
southeastern gulf departs towards the panhandle and a weak upper
trough pushes across the region from the west. This will leave
gusty outflow winds as the primary short term forecast challenge
as most of the area remains precipitation free. Upper level
support for these winds looks to be somewhat lacking, leaving the
surface pressure gradient and cold air advection from the
interior as the primary drivers of this event. This should keep
outflow winds more on the modest side, although strong gusts can
still be expected through the typical coastal gap flow areas
including valdez, whittier, and seward. Winds should begin to
diminish overnight Thursday as an upper low over the beaufort sea
pivots to the western mainland and upper level flow shifts around
to the southwest. Meanwhile, the exception to the dry conditions
expected across most of the area will be the eastern portion of
the copper river basin, where the combination of the upper trough
approaching from the west and a weak surface low over the
northeastern gulf should be sufficient to produce a period of
light snow Thursday into Thursday night. Minor accumulations will
be possible within wrangell-st. Elias national park including the
mccarthy area through Friday morning.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Northwesterly flow will continue to filter cold air into the
southwest mainland through the next couple of days. Gusty
northwesterly winds over the alaska peninsula will taper off
through tomorrow. The southwest mainland area will remain fairly
dry through Friday, with only a couple of exceptions. Unstable
northwesterly flow banking up against the kuskokwim mountains and
alaska range will squeeze out a few showers in the vicinity of the
mountains as the air is orographically forced upward. In
addition, cold air flowing over the relatively warm ocean waters
will continue to steepen lapse rates and support some isolated
showers along the kuskokwim coast and nunivak island. Otherwise,
expect mainly dry weather with a continual cooling trend to
slightly below normal temperatures by Friday. Slightly more active
weather will return Friday evening as an arctic low will push
southward into the kuskokwim delta, bringing a better focus for
some more organized precipitation.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The main feature driving the weather over the bering sea and
aleutians will be a northwest pacific low tracking east towards
the western aleutians tonight. As the low moves near shemya
tomorrow morning, it will be caught up in the base of the
downstream longwave trough over mainland alaska, preventing any
northward movement into the bering sea. As has been the pattern
for the last week or so with a zonal storm track over south of the
aleutians, the majority of the impacts of this low and it's
associated front will remain confined to the aleutians and
southern bering sea. Expect a swath of small craft to gale force
winds and rain over the western central aleutians and southern
bering sea tonight through Friday. As the low departs to the
northeast pacific Friday, widespread northerly flow will resume
over the bering sea, with increased chances of showers as
instability increases.

Meanwhile further east, small craft force cold northwesterly
winds over the eastern bering sea will weaken overnight as
pressure gradients slacken. The area will remain relatively quiet
under a col Thursday before broad northerly flow quickly resumes
Friday.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Friday night through
Wednesday)...

an active pattern is expected through the long range forecast
through the middle of next week. The main challenge surrounds a
storm system which slides east into the gulf this weekend
bringing the potential for snow across southcentral into early
next week.

For the start of the weekend, cold air advection keeps
temperatures below normal across the southern mainland into
Saturday morning under dry conditions as low pressure tracks south
of the alaska peninsula to the gulf. Weak disturbances across the
gulf will initiate rain showers along a surface low near the
northeast coast heading into Saturday morning, with a few snow
showers moving inland over the eastern copper river. For locations
along the bering, including the southwest coast, precipitation
chances increase through the upcoming weekend as an upper low
pressure system in the eastern bering slowly propagates south
toward bristol bay. A colder air mass advecting from the northern
bering changes precip type mainly to snow except along the
aleutians where a mix of rain and snow prevail under moderate
temperatures.

The biggest challenge of the upcoming forecast is the storm system
which tracks into the gulf on Saturday. This system is currently
expected to lift a frontal boundary to the northern waters by
Saturday afternoon ahead of a surface low. This low moves across
the central gulf Saturday night and deepens to 970 mb. This warm
core system will spread rain across the gulf on Saturday, with
showers along the gulf coast starting initially as snow mixing
with or changing over to rain through Saturday night. The upper
level low associated with this front begins to lift north towards
Sunday morning, which brings the potential for snow to develop
across inland areas of southcentral. Models continue to struggle
from run to run on the timing and track of this system, therefore
only small changes were made to increase precipitation chances for
the latter part of the weekend. With high uncertainty during the
mid range forecast, kept changes minimal through the middle of
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 130-132 150 175-178 352 411 413.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Cb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Rd
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi48 min NNE 9.9 G 18 40°F 51°F984 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi48 min N 14 G 18 40°F 984.3 hPa
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi48 min N 14 G 22 40°F 983.9 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi48 min NNE 19 G 21 41°F 982.9 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi88 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 42°F 47°F3 ft982.8 hPa (+0.4)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi48 min ENE 1 G 1.9 37°F 48°F982 hPa

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi22 minNNE 12 G 2310.00 miFair39°F10°F31%986.3 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5N4CalmCalm3SW4CalmCalmSE3NE7
G21
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1 day agoSE4CalmN4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmS6SE6SE8NE4CalmCalmE3E4N4CalmN4
2 days ago3--NE5NE4SE634N3N3CalmSW3E9
G14
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G26
E13E14NE10
G19
CalmCalmN4CalmNW3E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
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Thu -- 01:33 AM AKDT     12.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 AM AKDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:39 PM AKDT     13.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:55 PM AKDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.511.91210.88.45.42.40.70.92.75.68.711.312.913.111.99.56.22.60-0.80.22.75.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM AKDT     12.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM AKDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:12 AM AKDT     New Moon
Thu -- 01:18 PM AKDT     13.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:35 PM AKDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.312.211.810.17.44.41.80.71.43.76.89.812.113.21311.38.44.91.7-0.3-0.51.147.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.