Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:18AMSunset 11:46PM Monday June 25, 2018 12:01 AM AKDT (08:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 258 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 24 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Mon night..Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue and Tue night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250045
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
445 pm akdt Sun jun 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A couple of easterly waves moving west across southcentral are
continuing generally widespread cloud cover with areas of rain.

The western most wave moving into the cook inlet to mat-su
corridor brought widespread light rain to the mat-su valleys,
talkeetna mountains, and the anchorage bowl through the late
morning hours. Subsidence on backside of the wave aided in low
stratus development over the copper river basin. Satellite imagery
showers cloud breaks with convection starting to develop over the
northern basin this afternoon. A secondary wave over the eastern
copper river basin is progressing west.

An upper wave extending across southwest alaska produced showers
from the kuskokwim delta to over bristol. Cloud breaks evident
over the lower kuskokwim valley could allow enough heating to aid
in thunderstorm development this afternoon. A low complex over the
aleutians along with an eastward extending occluded front brought
widespread cloud cover and areas of rain to much of the aleutians,
bering sea, and ak pen.

Model discussion
Models overall are in generally good agreement through the short
term. The main difference is the handling of the upper waves and
the location and timing of precipitation across southcentral. Will
likely lean toward a wetter solution for southcentral for Monday.

Aviation
Panc... Light winds with generallyVFR conditions and expected
through Monday afternoon. Ceilings may fall below the 5000 ft
threshold at times.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (tonight through
Tuesday night)...

relatively benign weather will dominate the southern half of
southcentral (south of the chugach mountains) tonight and
tomorrow as weak upper ridging builds overhead. Most of the action
will be further north over the copper river basin and susitna
valley as a series of weak easterly waves continues to march
across the southern interior sparking off scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Most of the thunderstorm activity this evening will
be seen north of glennallen near the denali highway, with weak
easterly flow pushing the activity west over the northern
talkeetna mountains and into the northern susitna valley
overnight. Further east, a weak shortwave rotating around the top
of a low over the northern pacific will sweep east across the
alcan border and over the wrangell mountains. This will promote an
area of widespread rain showers late tonight which will move
southwest across the mountain range towards the gulf coast,
bringing potentially heavy rain to the wrangell-st. Elias
national park area with some lighter rain to cordova and valdez
tomorrow morning.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
afternoon over northern portions of the copper river basin as the
last easterly wave pushes through. Showers look to develop further
south over the chugach and kenai mountains as well, which could
drift west over the anchorage and mat-su in the evening. A more
organized low pressure system will sweep a front northeast across
kodiak and into the gulf by Monday night which will bring rain and
increased winds to the area. As the front approaches southcentral
on Tuesday, the more southerly flow will halt the easterly waves
leading to quieter weather for interior locations.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (Sunday evening through
Wednesday)...

two more afternoons evenings with showers and isolated
thunderstorms for the mainland are in store before a new pattern
takes hold. A weak upper level trough combined with a weak surface
thermal trough will promote some convective showers this evening,
mainly over and along higher terrain such as the kilbucks,
nushagak hills, and the alaska range. Some isolated thunderstorms
are possible, but most precipitation is unlikely to be accompanied
by thunder. The kuskokwim delta should stay mostly dry, but
isolated to scattered showers are possible through the evening
hours. Monday will be much the same, though the instability axis
will be shifted further to the north, mainly over the kuskokwim
valley, again with isolated thunderstorms in the same area.

A front from the bering sea pushes onto the mainland Tuesday,
bringing steadier rain to most places, and increased southeasterly
flow. The front will be weakening as it moves ashore, meaning
winds will be gusty but not as strong as can sometimes be
experienced. Rain and southeasterly winds will linger with the
front through Wednesday. Expect below normal temperatures and
mostly cloudy conditions through the period.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (Sunday evening through
Wednesday)...

the low pressure system currently over the western central bering
will slowly weaken and move eastward through Wednesday. The front
associated with the system is falling apart over much of the
bering, and is more intact toward the eastern aleutians and alaska
peninsula, which is where the rain with the system will be
steadiest. Sub-gale force winds can be expected with this system.

As an upper level wave wraps around the system on Tuesday, expect
some reinvigoration of precipitation for the eastern bering sea.

Otherwise, showery and mostly cloudy conditions will persist along
with relatively light winds.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The upper level low currently moving to the bering will be the
responsible synoptic feature which keeps higher rain chances
across southern alaska through the end of the week. The low center
tracks to the alaska peninsula on Wednesday and then is nearly
stationary through next Saturday. Several waves are expected to
move down stream of the polar jet over the central bering, re-
invigorating the low. This system generally weakens late Friday
into Saturday; however, the short waves rotating around the core
are enough to bring increased rain chances across southern
alaska, the gulf, and the eastern bering. To the west of this low,
a ridge pattern shifts to the western bering on Thursday trapping
moisture near the surface keeping low clouds and patchy fog
through Saturday.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic pattern
through Thursday then differ in how they handle the ridge pattern
over the west bering. In addition, models also differ with another
weaker ridge building across the northeastern area of the state
which vies for dominance against the low over the alaska peninsula.

The extended forecast was kept intact until models come into better
agreement.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ml
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi56 min Calm G 1 54°F 54°F1012.5 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi50 min 49°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi69 minN 310.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1012.2 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F43°F68%1011.8 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F46°F72%1012.6 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi69 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F46°F72%1012.2 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi66 minSSE 310.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4S4S5S5S5CalmSW4Calm3S3W5SW4W4NW5NW7NW6W6NW7NW4CalmCalmN3N3
1 day agoW3SW4CalmS3CalmCalmSW4S4S5SW6W55W5NW7NW7W7W8W7W6W9W8W5W4SW3
2 days agoSE6S4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW4S8SW6W7W6W8W11W11W11W8W9W10NW8SW7W6S3SW33

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:08 AM AKDT     4.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM AKDT     28.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:46 PM AKDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM AKDT     27.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.96.811.917.523.127.628.927.123.318.613.36.90.9-0.6391622.927.227.825.421.617.412.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM AKDT     28.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:25 PM AKDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM AKDT     26.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:56 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.39.614.520.32527.928.527.123.618.111.35.11.61.95.91218.22325.926.825.722.417.311.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.