Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:45AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 10:39 AM AKDT (18:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 403 Am Akdt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory today...
Today..E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 161309
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
509 am akdt Tue oct 16 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A powerful storm force low is moving inland along the north gulf
coast this morning. Satellite imagery depicts the broad baroclinic
leaf structure over the state, ahead of a negative tilt shortwave
trough. A coupled upper level streak aloft is also playing a role
in the rather impressive precipitation rates along the coast.

Mimic tpw satellite imagery is showing a well developed
atmospheric river which is tapping 25n with precipitable water
values of 200-250 percent of normal. Buoy observations in prince
william sound are supporting storm force winds with gusts to near
60 knots while 24 hour rain rates are around 4" in places such as
cordova. In other words, this is a heckuva impressive storm
system.

Over the bering sea, an occluded and stacked low is acting as the
"anchor" low for the fierce low farther east. As a whole, the
general low circulation stretches from the far islands along the
aleutian chain to the panhandle of alaska--over 2000 miles.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the pattern
through Wednesday night. Large discrepancies begin to emerge
Thursday as a powerful storm force low moves into the gulf of
alaska from the central pacific ocean, an area lacking in
observations and a pattern which is hard for models to capture.

The ECMWF is the weakest and farthest east while the american
models are depicting storm force winds over most of the gulf. For
now, a blend of all models will be favored until better continuity
develops.

Aviation
Panc... Moderate-heavy rain will taper off to intermittent showers
this morning as the front moves inland, which will bring brief
periods of MVFR conditions as heavier rain bands push through.

Southeast winds will move into the terminal in conjunction before
slowly diminishing overnight. Otherwise,VFR conditions will
prevail.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (today through Thursday)
The storm force front that is making landfall over the north gulf
coast will bring continued rains to much of the gulf coast and
into southcentral this morning. The heaviest rainfall will occur
along the front over the cordova area, as well as along the
western edge of the low in the eastern kenai peninsula where
1-1.5" of additional rainfall is possible for areas including
portage and seward. Further north over southcentral (including the
anchorage bowl) rain will become heavier this morning as the gulf
low approaches from the south. This will also bring gusty winds
from turnagain arm eastward into the copper river as a broad and
tight pressure gradient throughout the chugach. With no down inlet
flow to protect the area, these winds will spread into south-west
anchorage as well as the matanuska valley, producing gusts to
around 30 mph.

While most of the widespread and heavy rain will depart the area
by late this afternoon as the gulf low and associated front
dissipate, a generally cloudy and showery pattern will continue through
Thursday as little movement is expected with the persistent upper
trough over the eastern bering. This will likely result in
temperatures remaining above normal (especially overnight) with
little chance of widespread freezing temperatures to the anchorage
bowl and matanuska valley as is common for this time of the year.

As a result the anchorage airport will likely set a new record
for the latest first freeze, which currently stands at today set
in 1969.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (today through Thursday)
The upper level low in the eastern bering will continue to bring
unsettled weather to southwest alaska through midweek. Showers
currently mainly along the coast will rotate further inland and
increase in coverage through this afternoon, remaining abundant
through Wednesday as a series of additional reinforcing shortwaves
spin through. The offshore low will start tracking slowly back to
the south Wednesday night and Thursday, allowing shower coverage
to gradually diminish. A front associated with a strong low
tracking north into the gulf will begin spreading precipitation
back into the area from the east across the alaska and aleutian
range around Thursday night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (today through Thursday)
The large eastern bering vertically stacked low currently
centered roughly half way between the pribilof islands and cape
newenham will slowly fill as it remains in that general location
through tonight. The low will begin tracking slowly back to the
south on Wednesday, crossing the alaska peninsula Thursday morning
before weakening into a remnant trough. Upper level ridging
building in over the western aleutians tonight and Wednesday will
continue east to reach the central bering Wednesday night and
Thursday. The next incoming frontal system will reach the western
aleutians Thursday.

Long term forecast (Friday through Tuesday)
At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near kenai, a second low south of the aleutian
chain and a low near kamchatka. Anticipate a very wet and progressive
pattern. There is good general consensus between the
gfs ec canadian but the best performing model is thought to be the
gfs for this forecast period. Expect back to back lows to bring a
hefty amount of precipitation to kodiak, prince william sound and
the anchorage bowl. Even though the third week of october is
considered to be part of the cold season for alaska, the
temperatures with both storms will remain well above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the kenai and other
portions of southcentral can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period but significant accumulations not expected. The
entire forecast period, the GFS has above normal temperatures at
500 mb from kenai to the yukon territory to juneau.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 121.

Marine... Gale 119 125 173-177 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ja
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Pjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi39 min NE 1 G 1.9 48°F 48°F995.4 hPa (+1.7)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi39 min ESE 8 G 8.9 47°F 50°F994.9 hPa (+2.2)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi39 min 51°F996.9 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi46 minS 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F43°F80%995.2 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi46 minSSE 14 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F44°F77%994.9 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi46 minWNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F43°F89%995.1 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast47°F45°F96%994.2 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N3NW8NW8
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1 day agoN6CalmN4NE12NE10N7N5N7N4N6N6N3N4N7N5N6N6N8N6N7N6NE7N4N9
2 days agoCalmSW9S8S5S6S9
G16
SE5SE3CalmSE63S9S5S8SE9E5E4SE4N3CalmNE3CalmN5NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Tue -- 12:00 AM AKDT     25.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM AKDT     5.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 01:04 PM AKDT     24.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM AKDT     10.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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25.824.722.218.815117.45.56.39.815.120.123.324.423.822.320.117.214.111.510.812.516.220.3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:06 AM AKDT     3.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 01:24 PM AKDT     25.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:43 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:15 PM AKDT     10.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:38 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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25.22420.916.712.48.95.73.55.611.216.420.123.12524.822.719.415.412.210.21113.717.120.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.