Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:19AMSunset 11:45PM Monday June 26, 2017 11:00 AM AKDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:26AMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 358 Am Akdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Today..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight and Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 261254
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
454 am akdt Mon jun 26 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The pattern of the future is here! After a stagnant pattern and
weak flow aloft for the last week, the longwave trough over the
bering sea is now propagating eastward. The jet stream is still
well to the south of the aleutians, near the mid-latitudes. A
weak, decaying front stretches from the kuskokwim delta through
the alaska range into the gulf of alaska. Weak ridging precedes
the front over southcentral alaska, while the previous trough
exits into canada. While the first front is weakening, it is still
spreading light rain from the southwest mainland through the
gulf. The surface low pressure system encompasses most of the
bering sea, with gusty winds along a more potent front in the
eastern bering sea. Middle and high level clouds are spreading
over southcentral alaska ahead of the first front, followed by
lower conditions behind.

Model discussion
Guidance remains in lockstep with each other with the shifting of
the longwave pattern to the east. The timing of the front is well
agreed upon with the first front washing out over southcentral
today, followed by a stronger shortwave and front on Tuesday.

Aviation
Panc... WhileVFR conditions and light winds will persist, a
mountain top inversion has trapped moisture around the 4000 ft
level around the northern cook inlet region. This moisture should
stick around until the inversion lifts by mid-morning. The
turnagain arm wind should begin to pick up early this evening,
bending into anchorage before turning down-inlet during the
overnight hours.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The area of instability that has been triggering some afternoon
and evening thunderstorms in the susitna valley and copper river
basin has moved eastward. The northern copper river basin along
the alaska range is the last remaining section of the area that
could potentially still see an isolated thunderstorm today. The
front that is moving through the gulf and into southcentral alaska
looks to be weakening as it progresses northward. This will keep
most of the rainfall fairly light today as it moves into the area
and many of the leeward sides of the mountains will not see any
rain at all. There is a reinforcing shot of moisture moving in
behind this front which will arrive tomorrow and bring more rain
to the coastal areas. For the anchorage and matanuska valley there
will be a good amount of downslope keeping most of the rain out
of the area. However the reinforcing moisture may bring enough to
these areas to get a little to spill over the mountains so the
sprinkles term was kept in the forecasts. Winds through turnagain
arm and along the copper river will increase tonight through the
middle of the week as the pressure gradient along the coast
increases.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A warm front extending out from a low pressure system in the
bering sea will continue to move ashore and push eastward over the
day today. The front will bring widespread rain across the
kuskokwim river valley and delta, making it into interior
sections by this afternoon. Strong southeasterly winds along the
coast will accompany the frontal passage this morning with winds
gusting up to 35 mph in spots. Downsloping off the akpen will
limit precipitation today to places along the eastern bristol bay
coast, including king salmon. Strong cross barrier flow will lead
to winds being funneled through terrain gaps across kamishak bay
and down through lake iliamna beginning Monday evening through
Tuesday, with gusts reaching over 40 mph in places. The front will
stall and weaken before the main upper trough supporting the
front moves toward the coast Tuesday morning. This trough will
support waves of moisture moving across the region with widespread
rain and showers present across most of the area through the day
on Tuesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The low in the bering sea will slowly deepen and track east along
and just to the north of the aleutian chain over the next 24
hours. High pressure over northwestern canada will block the low
from progressing further east and begin to push the low center
north and then back to the west by the middle of the week,
bringing continued unsettled weather to the region through at
least the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The extended forecast beginning Thursday is a progressive pattern
with a long-wave trough over the bering and gulf of alaska which
continues clouds streaming inland along with higher chances for
rain into the weekend. Models are struggling with the multiple
shortwaves moving through the expansive trough leading to higher
uncertainty through the long range forecast. One of the main
challenges on Thursday into Friday is the development of the next
low in the north pacific which quickly moves into the southern
gulf. Models differ with how they build a ridge ahead of this
system over the southern mainland, which has large impacts on the
progression of the gulf low. Kept the inherited forecast intact
for this package as models still lack in consistency from run to
run. There is a better signal over the bering that the broad
trough remains focused over the central waters while weakening
through the end of the week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi43 min W 6 G 7 53°F 55°F1014 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi43 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 51°F1014.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi43 min 53°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi68 minWNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F43°F62%1013.9 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi68 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F44°F65%1013.7 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi68 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds56°F45°F67%1013.6 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi63 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F43°F61%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW7NW6NW7NW66W10W9W11W10W6W4S3SW8S6S75SW7S3S3SW43NW4W7
1 day agoW55CalmW46NW7W7W6W6NW4N4W3SE8CalmS5S10S7S6S6CalmS6S5NW7NW5
2 days agoSW3NW35NW4NW5W8NW9NW6W6NW3Calm4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W33SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:36 AM AKDT     3.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM AKDT     33.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:00 PM AKDT     -4.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM AKDT     32.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.715.58.63.93.47.615.223.630.13332.127.921.313.24.9-1.5-4-1.45.715.12430.132.531.4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:28 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:53 AM AKDT     2.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM AKDT     31.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM AKDT     -3.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 PM AKDT     31.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.616.810.752.77.116.124.429.731.830.526.42114.681.4-3.4-2.35.415.12328.63130.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.