Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:45AMSunset 4:34PM Thursday January 18, 2018 4:44 AM AKST (13:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:33AMMoonset 5:46PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 343 Am Akst Thu Jan 18 2018
Today..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 181316
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
416 am akst Thu jan 18 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A decaying low continues to spins over kodiak island wrapping some
moisture into the region. Cold air has filtered across southwest
and any remnant moisture from this system will fall as snow north
of shelikof strait whereas temperatures over kodiak are slightly
warmer and more conducive to rain or a rain-snow mix. Looking
upstream, a trio of lows is closing in on the western aleutians.

There is an occluded front north of attu that extends east of
atka but this boundary and the adjoining lows will weaken over the
bering. The ominous low of the group is tracking northeastward
out of the north pacific. A surface high that has been over
siberia will begin to nose its way across the international
dateline and into the central bering. The latest scatterometer
data clearly shows the anticyclonic moving into the bering sea.

Model discussion
Models are in sync with large scale features through the weekend and
there is good run to run continuity. The primary challenge will
be pinpointing the temperatures as we head into a much cooler
pattern.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The trend to colder temperatures has begun over southcentral
alaska with temperatures cooling through the weekend.

The low that pumped the warm air into the region is filling
rapidly over kodiak island where it is still producing rain and
snow showers.

There remains a weak upper level low over the kenai peninsula
this morning which will persist through tomorrow before heading
eastward Friday night into Saturday. Why this matters is that it
is going to keep some cloud cover over the region and prevent a
significant clearing trend. It also is keeping upper level support
from developing for outflow winds. Therefore the winds along the
north gulf coast will be limited due to this. The surface pressure
gradient and cold air advection will be enough to produce some
gusty northerly winds, but they will not get overly strong
(compared to what they often do) as a result of no upper level
support for them at all. This upper level low will also bring some
scattered snow showers to the prince william sound area late
Friday into Saturday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
The low over kodiak is expected to diminish and push off to the
east through tonight and as it does snow over southwest alaska
will also diminish. Meanwhile, high pressure will build in from
the north that will bring cold northerly winds to the area. Friday
night and into the weekend this setup will bring temperatures that
stay below 0 f for most of southwest alaska locations that are
not along the coast.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
The weakening low near the western aleutians and its stalled front
that stretches over the eastern aleutians will continue to bring
light showers to the area until high pressure forces them out
tonight into Friday. The high pressure will build in from the
north bringing colder air to the bering and aleutians. Friday
night into Saturday, another system will approach the western
aleutians from the north pacific but its progression will be
stalled by the high dominating the central bering. This will keep
the majority of the precip from this system isolated to the
western and central aleutians.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast is still on track today with models in good
agreement showing a major pattern shift beginning this weekend. A
high amplitude blocking ridge will develop over the western bering
which will cause a longwave trough to descend south across the
state by Sunday. The trough will drag brutally cold, eye lash
freezing air down from siberia, where temperatures were recorded
as low as -80f earlier this week. This will lead to a significant
cold air outbreak over most of interior and western portions of
the state next week. Temperatures across interior sections could
drop into the -30s and -40s by Monday with locations along the
bristol bay coast dropping into the negative single digits or even
negative teens. Though this is not shaping up to be a record
breaking event, temperatures will be noticeably colder than it
has been all winter, especially when factoring in the expected brisk
northerly winds, which could drop wind chills as low as -50
across interior portions of SW alaska.

Southcentral looks to escape the brunt of the cold air as the
alaska range will block the cold core to the north and west sides
of the range. In fact, a weak surface low looks to develop in the
gulf by Tuesday which could bring periods of light dry snow to
the mountains and communities along the prince william sound from
Tuesday through the end of the week, which should also pump in a
little bit warmer air from the south helping to moderate
temperatures across southcentral a bit. An upper level low looks
to drop out of the arctic around mid week bringing another
reinforcing shot of cold air to the state. The low center should
track south across the western half of the state, which would
again concentrate the coldest air to SW alaska. If the low tracks
more to the east, as shown in previous GFS runs, cold arctic air
could make its way into southcentral, though models seem to be
agreeing more on the western track of the low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 178 180. Heavy freezing spray 180 181 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi50 min Calm G 1 27°F 995.5 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 28°F 31°F996.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi50 min 42°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi51 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy23°F21°F92%995.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi51 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy26°F23°F88%995.5 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi51 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy21°F21°F100%995.4 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi48 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F20°F100%994.7 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmNE5CalmW4CalmW8W5CalmN3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmS4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE6E8E5SE3N3E4N3Calm36
G18
NW7NW9W5E8NW6W3W6NW7NW3CalmNW33NW53
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE3SE3NE4E3N3CalmNW5NW7N4E4NE4NE4N8NE8NE8NE6NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Thu -- 02:05 AM AKST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 AM AKST     29.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:32 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:26 PM AKST     5.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:54 PM AKST     29.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.62-0.51.37.11522.427.429.428.625.620.915.19.66.36.510.617.223.928.429.8282418.3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:22 AM AKST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 AM AKST     29.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:38 PM AKST     4.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:53 PM AKST     28.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.93.7-0.10.77.115.121.626.62928.325.120.415.110.165.410.4182427.428.426.622.617.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.