Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 11:07PM Saturday July 21, 2018 7:16 PM AKDT (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 346 Pm Akdt Sat Jul 21 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon and Mon night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220049
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
449 pm akdt Sat jul 21 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level ridge stretching from the eastern pacific, north
across the gulf and over mainland alaska is the dominant feature
influencing today's weather. For southcentral alaska, this ridge
is primarily bringing warm and dry weather with marine stratus
along the coast. For southwest alaska, a diffuse negatively tilted
upper level trough stretched between the upper low in the bering
and another smaller upper level low south of the alaska peninsula,
is spreading clouds, some light rain and breezy conditions to the
southwest alaska coast. Further inland, partly cloudy skies and a
weak influence from the interior thermal are combining to
increase instability this afternoon and bring the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. Further to the west, cold air aloft to the
south of the upper low tracking east through the bering has been
bringing a few thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the bering,
aleutians and alaska peninsula, a cloudy mix of stratus and
strato-cumulus prevail with areas of rain and showers that are
associated with the various small troughs rotating around the
upper low.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through early next
week. Forecast uncertainty at the moment hinges primarily on
stratus location, movement and growth, the finer scale details of
which none of the models have been resolving particularly well.

Aviation
Panc... With the upper level ridge axis continuing to shift
gradually east, the chances for low stratus to impact panc
continue to diminish but there is a small possibility of brief
lifr stratus or patchy fog Sunday morning. Winds will remain light
through the TAF period with afternoon sea breezes.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 Sun
through tue)...

Sunday will provide one more sunny and warm day of this summer
stretch for all areas expect kodiak island. The ridge of high
pressure that has been keeping weather quite quiet for nearly the
past week is slowly shifting off to the east. This is due in part
to a weak front approaching from the north pacific eastern
aleutians. Low stratus and patchy fog will likely lurk around cook
inlet and the north gulf again tonight and through Sun morning.

It is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly which areas will see
the worst conditions, but for now, it looks like anchorage will
stay out of it.

The front will make its way east through the day sun. Clouds will
overspread kodiak through the day. Onshore flow will increase
at kodiak city and this should help rain to start by mid-day. High
clouds will then move over the kenai peninsula Sun afternoon and
into the anchorage bowl late Sun night. Models have shown some
signs today of trending slower with the ridge breaking down. They
have also shown that when it does break down, it tilts back to the
west limiting the front's northward extent. So while rain should
reach the gulf coast of the kenai by Sun night, it will struggle
to move up the cook inlet. Southeast winds will also play a role
here as a tighter gradient will bring some moderate downsloping
winds off the kenai and chugach mountains. Thus, have backed off
the pops a bit for Mon over many of the population centers.

By tue, the vertically stacked low pressure center will be right
along the alaska peninsula. Various weak pieces of energy will
continue to make for rain along kodiak and the gulf coast. A
southeasterly gradient will remain in place across much of
southcentral. This will lead to breezy conditions, especially
through the usual gaps, and could aid in keeping many inland
locations drier longer.

Fire weather The copper river basin will see temperatures,
humidities, and winds approach very near critical levels for fire
concerns on Sun afternoon and evening. The hot and dry trend
across the area will continue for just one more day as the ridge
holds in place. As the aforementioned front draws nearer, it will
allow southeast winds to develop over the copper river valley sun
afternoon. The combination of these elements will raise fire
weather concerns Sun until cooler and moister air arrives on mon.

While we expect conditions to remain just above warning criteria,
caution should be exercised across the area.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 3)
An upper level low complex extending across the bering is running
into a persistent upper ridge to the east leading to a tightening
pressure gradient and gusty southeasterly winds across the akpen
and bristol bay coast. This system will bring mostly cloudy skies
and a few rain showers to coastal areas tonight, while inland
locations will remain less cloudy and warmer. Tomorrow, the main
upper-level shortwave begins to drive north into southwest alaska.

This will bring a better chance of wetting rains to the area,
especially for the akpen and west coast. The upper-level ridge
upstream, however, will become negatively tilted with the ridge
axis remaining in place across the central portion of the state.

This will keep the shortwave closer to the coast and make it quite
difficult for any precipitation to develop east of a bethel-
iliamna line. The interaction between the shortwave and ridge will
also increase southeasterly winds through the kamishak gap and
down across lake iliamna for Sunday.

The ridge begins to lift north Sunday night. This will allow yet
another shortwave and associated surface low to track toward the
alaska peninsula. This will help bring more clouds and widespread
rainfall to the coast and across the majority of the southwest
interior. The low lifts further north and east on Tuesday focusing
precip over higher terrain along the coast and the akpen.

Southeasterly winds will ramp up again through the lake iliamna
area, akpen, and the bristol bay coast, with gusts reaching over
40 mph in some favored locations.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A large upper low will slide southeast through the forecast period
bringing plenty of cloud cover and widespread rain showers across
most of the region. A shortwave moving east across the central
bering, including the pribilofs, and central aleutians will bring
periods of heavy rain to the area tonight and tomorrow morning.

At the same time, a strong upper level jet will move over the
western aleutians supporting good dynamics for a narrow band of
heavy rain to develop over the island chain through Monday. Total
rain fall over the next 2-3 days could be over 2" over the western
part of the chain. The upper low continues to track east through
Tuesday which will bring cooler NW flow on the backside of the
system across the central and eastern aleutians, though the drier
air will also provide a break from precipitation. A ridge will
move in over the far western aleutians by Tuesday bringing mid-
level warm air advection which should lead to the development of
low clouds and fog.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)
Tuesday will feature a wave of moisture moving northwestward
around the upper level low centered near sand point moving into
mainland southern alaska. The heaviest rains will be along the
coast of the kenai peninsula, primarily staying south and west of
prince william sound until later in the day, and kodiak. With
ongoing downsloping continuing through turnagain arm and the knik
river valley, most communities from anchorage north should remain
dry until the evening hours. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
will feature better chances for the precipitation to get into
anchorage and the matanuska valley as a reinforcing wave of
moisture in the upper levels moves into southcentral. Scattered
showers will be prevalent Tuesday and Wednesday across southwest
alaska, with the most favored locations for precipitation being
the east facing mountains. Precipitation chances will diminish the
farther north and west one GOES as well. From midday onwards on
Wednesday, anchorage and the matanuska valley should be drier
behind the wave as the downsloping winds continue.

Another round of rain moves into southcentral, including anchorage
and the matanuska valley on Wednesday night. This wave moves north
into the susitna valley during the day Thursday, with scattered
showers continuing for much of the rest of the area. The passage
of the front will allow kodiak to dry out relatively speaking as
the rain becomes much more intermittent there on Thursday.

Meanwhile that moisture will also spread westward into southwest
alaska during the day Thursday. Outside of some isolated showers,
Friday should be a generally drier day, though unfortunately still
mainly cloudy for most areas, as the upper level low and its
associated moisture retreats south and westward.

The models diverge greatly late Friday into Saturday area-wide,
due to different handling of a strong low and its associated
fronts moving into the western bering on Thursday then pushing
eastward through the rest of the bering and potentially southwest
alaska by Saturday. The models are generally agreeing on the
ridging over the panhandle and western canada slowly building back
to the west into the copper river basin late in the week. That
should help keep that area warmer and sunnier than the rest of
southern alaska this week with the exception of the front and
associated rain moving through there as well on Thursday. Breezy
conditions and relatively warmer temperatures may be cause for the
continuation of fire weather concerns Tuesday in the copper river
basin.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jr
southcentral alaska... Mo
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi34 min SW 5.1 G 6 61°F 59°F1026 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi34 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 64°F 57°F1026.9 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi34 min 59°F1027.3 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi23 minWNW 710.00 miFair73°F55°F53%1026 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi23 minNNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F57°F61%1025.7 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi23 minWNW 910.00 miFair71°F55°F57%1025.4 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi80 minW 1010.00 miFair71°F54°F56%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmE3E5CalmNW43W5NW7W7NW6NW7NW5W6NW5
1 day agoW6W7W6W6SW3SW5SW4CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmSW34W5NW4353W5NW3N4NW5
2 days agoNW4SW6W6W33CalmS3CalmCalmS3S4S3W3NW3SW5NW8NW7W7NW7NW6NW6W6NW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Sat -- 01:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:20 AM AKDT     27.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:12 AM AKDT     4.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 PM AKDT     23.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:27 PM AKDT     8.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.82627.827.525.522.117.211.76.94.55.59.514.719.522.623.923.722.119.315.211.18.48.611.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:39 AM AKDT     27.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM AKDT     3.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM AKDT     25.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:41 PM AKDT     6.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
19.9242727.525.221.116.411.97.33.53.77.712.517.322.124.924.721.917.914.110.67.36.59.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.