Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Lake, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:26 PM AKDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 340 Pm Akdt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Lake, AK
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location: 61.36, -149.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231255
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
455 am akdt Tue may 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A frontal boundary and low continue to track towards southcentral
alaska. The kenai radar is in the lull before the storm and
presently pretty uneventful. On satellite as of 12z or 4 am the
leading edge of the front is entering the ak peninsula. The jet
core is near the pribilof islands and handedly over 130 knots.

Model discussion
The nam... ECMWF and the GFS are in lock step regarding the 500 mb
heights and the surface features at msl. Sensible weather-
wise... The model consensus is very good pinging into the qpf... The
gusty winds and the temperatures in the pre and post frontal
environment. Wednesday's event in the anchorage metro area is a
high confidence event.

Aviation
Panc... Gusty southeast winds are expected across the airport
complex through late this evening. As the next frontal boundary
pushes inland... Expect the CIGS to drop. At this time... Expect
the light rains to commence at panc at 12z Wednesday. Although
taf updates expected as the latest model data becomes availble.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A bout of rain and wind will afflict the cook inlet region as a
very fall-like pattern sets up aloft. A weak trough will pass
today which could trigger some afternoon showers over the chugach,
talkeetnas and wrangells. The developing westerly flow will keep
most activity around the copper river basin. Some clearing and
light winds should make for a pretty decent spring day for most of
southern alaska.

However, that is literally the calm before the storm. A beefy
120 kt jet aloft will punch overhead tonight into Wednesday
bringing a lot of moisture with it. Rain will overspread the area
from southwest to northeast late tonight, increasing gap winds as
it does so. It looks to be a semi-rare occurrence where we get
rain and wind at the same time in the anchorage area. Wednesday
will be pretty wet until the evening hours when both the wind and
rain should taper off. A colder air mass will be left in the wake
of this system, leaving below normal temperatures.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An incoming frontal system and increasing southwesterly flow aloft
will bring rather wet and breezy conditions to southwest alaska
this evening through Wednesday morning. The frontal system will
begin spreading precipitation across the greater bristol bay area
this afternoon. Rain will increase in intensity this evening with
moderate to heavy at times rainfall spreading inland overnight.

Cold air aloft behind the frontal system will spread inland
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This cold air aloft
will bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms both Wednesday
and Thursday afternoon and evening as well as rain showers
transitioning over to snow showers Wednesday night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The large vertically stacked low will track into the northern
bering this afternoon with an upper trough to its south swinging
east from the western aleutians this morning through the central
aleutians this afternoon and evening and into the eastern bering
tonight through Wednesday. The cold upper trough will swing inland
into southwest alaska Wednesday night and Thursday to be followed
by broad zonal flow across the bering and another low pressure
system tracking east down the length of the aleutians Wednesday
night through Thursday night.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The mid to long term forecast starting Wednesday evening seems to
be that of a tale of non summer like weather. The current model
depiction is that alaska will be stuck in troughing pattern where
the weather will be active through the weekend. Unfortunately,
this is a dramatic flip from guidance just a few days ago. The
first system will be exiting south central as we move into
Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will hang around the gulf
through the end of the week, leaving coastal and upslope regions
moist. By Saturday afternoon the next front moves past kodiak and
brings another round of unsettled weather through Monday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 155 172 174.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Ml
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi51 min W 12 G 14 48°F 48°F1017 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 88 mi51 min 47°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 92 mi37 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 50°F 49°F1016.3 hPa (+1.0)42°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK7 mi89 minSW 1110.00 miFair54°F33°F45%1015.5 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi34 minWNW 910.00 miFair53°F33°F47%1016.6 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK14 mi34 minNW 1110.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1016.8 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK16 mi34 minWNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F34°F48%1016.8 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK17 mi31 minW 910.00 miFair54°F34°F47%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE13SE10S9S11S13S12S14S8S9S6SE5CalmCalmCalmS14S11S12S14S11SW11SW10SW11SW13
1 day agoS6SW4SW5CalmW3CalmS10S11S11S11S12S9CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW7NW7W5SE11
G18
SE9SE14S14
G19
2 days agoW7SW10SW9SW9SW7SW4W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW64W3SW7SW6S4S3SW4S6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM AKDT     30.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:19 PM AKDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM AKDT     29.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.97.813.820.926.83030.127.62316.910.14.20.81.66.513.921.326.729.128.525.520.714.78.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:04 AM AKDT     3.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 04:59 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM AKDT     30.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:41 PM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:21 PM AKDT     29.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.5612.820.125.529.129.927.422.717.111.56.21.50.45.31320.225.82928.524.919.814.49.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.