Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 9:45PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:58 AM AKDT (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:28AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 353 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190108
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
508 pm akdt Fri aug 18 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A broad cold upper level trough encompasses much of the alaska
mainland, with an upper level low centered in the chukchi sea and
a second upper level wave that is centered near king salmon. At
the surface a weak front is pushing in along the north gulf of
alaska coast. Both features are helping to support widespread
showers along the north gulf coast and also across bristol bay
near king salmon. Meanwhile a low is moving northwards from the
north pacific ocean into the central aleutians and bringing some
gusty winds and showers. Meanwhile high pressure dominates across
the western and central bering.

Model discussion
Models are in generally good agreement in the short term but begin
to drift in the position and intensity of a low pressure system as
it pushes into the gulf of alaska late Sunday night into Monday.

This will have important implications for wind gust intensity
along the north gulf coast and prince william sound, and also for
rainfall across southcentral.

Aviation
Panc... A band of rain is moving towards anchorage which will
begin to impact the area by afternoon. Currently southeast flow is
expected to persist into the evening hours, which will help to
keep higher ceilings even as the rain approaches. Gusty southeast
winds will slowly diminish by the evening hours.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Cool and rainy conditions will persist overnight as a vigorous
upper level shortwave trough swings through southcentral bringing
a wide swath of precipitation up the cook inlet and into prince
william sound. A surface low will form off the east coast of the
kenai peninsula this evening and move northeast tonight. Winds
wrapping around the top of the low will temporally form a weak
easterly barrier jet along the northern gulf coast with increased
winds extending into southern portions of prince william sound.

The upper level trough and associated surface low move off to the
northeast tomorrow morning, with precipitation tapering off across
the region after midnight, though rain will linger along the gulf
coast through Saturday afternoon.

The next system approaches the region on Sunday as a deep upper
level low dropping down from the arctic merges with the remnants
of tropical cyclone banyan moving in from the northern pacific. A
large swath of moisture will slam into the gulf coast by Sunday
afternoon leading to periods of very heavy rain through most of
the day on Monday. The heaviest precipitation will be focused
along the northern gulf coast, the prince william sound, and the
northeastern coast of the kenai peninsula. Precipitation is also
expected to make its way into the anchorage and mat-su on Monday,
though there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and
amount of rain for locations on the west side of the chugach.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Expecting a fetch of moisture which is currently over the bering
to get entrained into the back side of the midlevel low bringing
precipitation into the ak peninsula tonight. A broad vortex over
western ak will continue to amplify enabling cooler air aloft to
work its way deeper into southwest alaska. Unsettled weather will
persist for the next few days as cooler air associated with the
trough moves southward. Between the embedded shortwaves and the
diurnal heating at the surface, the dynamics will be present to
support showers. Temperatures will hover near or slightly below
average for this time of year.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
South of kiska, there is a closed low that is progged to move
eastward and slowly deepen. In its wake, expect ridging which
will keep a stable and relatively warm air mass in place. The
aleutian chain and portions of the bering can anticipate more fog
and stratus. The ridge axis will persist into next week keeping
the areas of pesky fog in place.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Monday night, there will be
a closed upper low over the north gulf of alaska with a shortwave
ridge axis over the eastern bering sea. Expect showery and mostly
cloudy cool conditions to be over southcentral with drier weather
over southwest. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a transition period
as southern alaska moves into weak shortwave ridging as the upper
low weakens and moves east. Another trough over the bering sea
will move toward southwest alaska on Wednesday and eventually dig
south toward kodiak island through the remainder of the week. This
will keep a wet pattern in place across coastal regions with
clouds and rain chances for inland areas. The degree of downslope
flow for interior locations remains somewhat uncertain at this
point as the low track and placement will modulate that factor,
but it still looks wetter and cooler for most of interior southern
alaska for the foreseeable future.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... En
southcentral alaska... Kwv
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi40 min SE 1 G 1.9 50°F 55°F1007 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi40 min 57°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 91 mi68 min NNE 14 G 16 50°F 53°F1 ft1007.8 hPa (+0.0)46°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi2 hrsNNE 410.00 miOvercast49°F49°F100%1006.3 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1006.8 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi62 minN 010.00 miLight Rain49°F48°F97%1008.1 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1007.3 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1006.9 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi2 hrsENE 410.00 miLight Rain48°F45°F89%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE4E4CalmN3N4N4NW6NW4N4NW4NW4CalmS5CalmN6N5N4N7N8N4Calm
1 day agoNE4NE6NE6NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W6CalmCalmN3S4N7S15S12S9S5SW6SE6S4NE3
2 days agoNE5E3S6CalmSW5SW4CalmCalmNW4CalmW4CalmSW6CalmCalmN6N4SW9S7S5CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:26 AM AKDT     29.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:31 PM AKDT     -1.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM AKDT     29.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.18.515.121.226.229.329.126.121.516.210.54.3-0.9-14.411.919.325.929.429.326.321.816.711.1

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:19 AM AKDT     29.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:08 PM AKDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:29 PM AKDT     28.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.210.516.322.527.129.228.826.221.615.48.52.701.66.914.12125.928.328.32621.615.69.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.