Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:59PM Thursday April 27, 2017 6:29 PM AKDT (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 331 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 27 2017
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Fri..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Fri night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat and Sat night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 280010
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
410 pm akdt Thu apr 27 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor imagery shows that a residual light southeast flow
aloft remains around southcentral alaska today. A weak surface
trough was lifting northward toward the alaska range. A weak high
pressure center is over southwest alaska and a weak low is over
the eastern aleutians.

Without strong steering currents or local synoptic features aloft,
rain has been slow to move and slow to end. And as a reminder of
the season, snow was noted on the glen alps web cam and in the
mountains near eagle river. Both locations are roughly 2,000 feet
asl.

In the west, an aleutian low is developing a weak ridge southwest
of kodiak island and a southwest flow is slowly breaking up the
heavier cloud cover in the gulf of alaska. Fog and low clouds
were a part of the kuskokwim delta's morning. And where the sky
has cleared off in southwest, cumulus were forming by midday.

Model discussion
Models initialized well this morning and appear to be in good
agreement through 00z Saturday when they diverge on the handling
of a pacific low moving into the southeastern gulf of alaska
through the weekend.

In southcentral, forecast challenges will be the extent and
intensity of precipitation, especially in an early-season
convective environment.

In southwest, forecast challenges will be with aviation impacts
from localized visibility issues and the timing of the next
pacific front moving through the aleutians beginning this
afternoon and tonight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
After some clearing and daytime heating earlier today, showers
will reform this evening throughout southcentral ahead of a
shortwave approaching from the south. Due to the widespread rain
and cloudcover this morning, these showers will be significantly
weaker over the anchorage bowl and matanuska valley than those
that brought very small hail to areas of southcentral on
Wednesday, with no hail expected this evening. The approaching
shortwave will then allow for showers to continue into Friday
morning, which may mix with light snow along higher elevations of
the anchorage hillside, providing only light accumulations.

The cloudy and showery pattern will then continue into the weekend
as the upper level trough currently over the ak pen slowly
approaches from the west. This trough will bring widespread rain
primarily to the gulf coast and potentially kodiak island, though
a few showers may be possible over southcentral as cold air aloft
begins to move in.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Low pressure remains dominant through the weekend bringing
continued chances for rain showers. Weak surface flow across
southwest becomes southeasterly on Saturday and Sunday as a front
moves into the central bering. Patchy fog is expected to re-
develop tonight along the kuskokwim delta coast spreading inland
during the early morning hours. Fog conditions will quickly
improve late morning with diurnal heating.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A north pacific front moves into the western aleutian chain
tonight bringing moderate rain along the frontal boundary and
gusty gale winds. The front pushes quickly across the western
bering and central aleutians on Friday then slows as the surface
low fills on its track across the western chain. On Sunday, the
low pressure system weakens further with scattered showers
lingering across the bering and aleutians as weak short waves
propagate around the associated upper low.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The weekend will be characterized by a low moving through the
southern bering that will keep cloud cover over much of the
southern mainland and aleutians with continued shower activity.

As the low tracks across the aleutians and into the pacific on
Monday it will push a front into southcentral alaska bringing more
steady rain to the north gulf coast. After this point the models
vary greatly on what to do with the low and another low
approaching the area from the south. Ensemble guidance was used
for mid week which brought a more middle ground and consolidated
low position into the gulf Wednesday, which is also slightly
weaker than some of the operational models.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 174 176-178 411.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sb/ds
southcentral alaska... Dek/ps
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Kh
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi42 min WSW 5.1 G 6 41°F 35°F1010 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi42 min 45°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 91 mi100 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 46°F1011 hPa (+2.2)42°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi92 minVar 510.00 miOvercast51°F38°F62%1008.4 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi37 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F41°F71%1009.6 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi34 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast50°F37°F61%1010.8 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi37 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast50°F37°F61%1009.9 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi37 minSW 710.00 miOvercast52°F37°F57%1009.6 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F35°F57%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S5SW6W5SW4S4S9S7--S7
G16
S6S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3S4Calm5Calm
1 day agoSW4W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W6NW8W7SW10------S8
2 days agoSW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalm6NW4W3CalmCalmS5SW7SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM AKDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM AKDT     33.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM AKDT     -2.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:58 PM AKDT     32.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:48 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.88.93.81.75.915.424.630.633.131.927.621.815.38.72.5-2.1-1.56.116.524.930.232.130.225.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:37 AM AKDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM AKDT     34.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM AKDT     -3.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:00 PM AKDT     33.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:49 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
146.821.45.813.923.130.534.133.429.122.213.85.4-1.3-3.9-1.45.915.725.131.433.531.726.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.