Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chevak, AK

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Sunrise 4:15AMSunset 11:46PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 9:26 PM AKDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:35PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chevak, AK
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location: 61.53, -165.6     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 192341
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
341 pm akdt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
Highlights
the hot and dry conditions coming to most of northern alaska now
through the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms will occur now through
the weekend most areas of alaska except the northeast interior,
with even the north slope getting thunderstorms. A cold front
moving south over the north slope late Fri and across the brooks
range on Sat will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the
north slope late Fri and to the brooks range on sat. This front
will bring gusty north winds to the brooks range on sat.

Aloft...

the ridge aloft that is now setting up over mainland ak looks
like it will remain in place for the next week. Most of northern
alaska should remain hot and dry under this scenario, with
isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

A weak low aloft over the yk delta will move to the seward
peninsula fri, and then persist into into sat. This will keep
the west coast and western interior unstable with isolated
thunderstorms into sat, except that the yk delta and SW interior
will cool and stabilize Fri and Sat as the low aloft moves north.

A short wave trough that extends south from this low aloft will
move east over the western interior Fri pm, and to the central
interior Sat pm. This will caused stronger instability and provide
a lifting mechanism that will cause scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the trough Fri into sat, with thunderstorms
lasting through the night Fri night.

Surface...

a thermal trough that stretches from the yk delta to noatak to
eagle will move by 4pm Thu to the yk delta to point lay to
chicken, by 4pm Fri to wales to point lay to umiat to chicken, and
by 4pm Sat to wales to point hope to arctic village to chicken.

Expect isolated thunderstorms each day from about noon to midnight
along and south of the thermal trough. Thunderstorms will
diminish over southwest alaska Fri and sat. Will see more enhanced
thunderstorms and scattered showers Fri pm into Sat in the
central interior with the upper level trough as mentioned in the
aloft section.

An arctic cold front from inuvik to barter island to 10 nm north
of point barrow will remain stationary through tonight then
retreat to old crow to barter island then north by 4pm thu. This
is causing stratus and fog along the coast east of point barrow
that is expected to move into utqiagvik and deadhorse tonight,
but will retreat east of the arctic coast thu.

A second arctic cold front will approach the arctic coast from the
northwest on fri, and move to utqiagvik west by 4pm fri, to
deadhorse to point hope by 4am sat, and to along the brooks range
crest by 4pm sat. This will bring showers to the arctic coast
with the front. This could provide the mechanical lift to set off
thunderstorms inland of the coast Fri night into sat. Also expect
north winds 15 mph with the front, which could gust to 25 mph in
the brooks range on sat.

Discussion
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
4pm fri, with slight differences into sat. At the surface models
verify well at 15z, and show similar solutions through 4pm fri.

Start to see differences at the surface on Sat pm with the nam
developing a tighter gradient along the brooks range. At this time
favor the NAM on Sat with the tighter gradient.

Models differ significantly with areal coverage of precip, with
the NAM showing the smallest areal coverage, and the ecmf showing
the largest areal coverage. Since the precip is all of a
convective nature, favor the larger areal coverage shown by the
ecmf, but with the caveat that it will be quite low probability
due to the dry nature of the airmass.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Hot and dry conditions continuing through the weekend over all
inland sections of alaska with highs in the mid 70s to the mid
80s and rh of 20 to 35% with the driest conditions over the
northeast interior and along the brooks range. Even the north
slope will be hot and dry.

Expect isolated thunderstorms each day along and south of the
thermal trough. Today this will be south of the yk delta to noatak
to eagle. Thu this will be south of the yk delta to point lay to
chicken. Fri this will be southwest of wales to point lay to umiat
to chicken. Sat will be southwest of wales to point hope to
arctic village to chicken. There will be few thunderstorms and
lightning strikes, but since conditions will be hot and dry, there
will be higher potential for fire starts.

Other than thunderstorms gusts, winds are expected to be 10 mph or
less. The exception is Sat pm when NE winds of 15 mph are possible
along the south slopes of the brooks range. We will need to keep
an eye on Sat for red flag winds along the south slopes of the
brooks range.

Hydrology
Rain in the SE interior and alaska range SE of minchumina to eagle
earlier this week is now working its way down rivers in those
areas such as fortymile, goodpaster, charlie and tok rivers, and
then should be falling over the next few days.

Glacial rivers draining the alaska range such as the chisana,
tanana, delta, and nenena should be rising through the weekend with
freezing levels going up to 10000 ft.

Afg watches warnings advisories
None.

Jb jun 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scammon Bay, AK22 mi30 minSE 310.00 miFair66°F52°F61%1019.8 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska
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Kokechik Bay
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Thu -- 12:53 AM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 02:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM AKDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:53 AM AKDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM AKDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:20 PM AKDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.83.44.96.16.976.65.74.63.42.62.32.63.13.74.24.44.23.62.71.70.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romanzof, Alaska
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Cape Romanzof
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Thu -- 12:55 AM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 02:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:04 AM AKDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:58 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:28 AM AKDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM AKDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:55 PM AKDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.13.44.85.96.776.75.64.12.61.71.72.12.73.444.44.33.82.71.50.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.