Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 10:00 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 349 Am Akdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Tonight - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mon - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Mon night - N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Tue - N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Tue night - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Thu - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 281034 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 234 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 232 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather persists over Northern Alaska as high pressure is the dominating feature. This high is centered over the Beaufort Sea and stretches into the Bering Sea. Fog and stratus will be around the Arctic Coast today with a slight breeze from the east.
Along the West Coast, other than some stratus and areas of fog, the weather will be tranquil and dry. There is a weak wave of energy over the Western Interior gradually moving over the Central and Eastern Interior this evening and tonight. This will be the culprit for a few higher terrain rain showers east and southeast of Fairbanks.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level Analysis...
Weak ridging will dominate the weather around the state today.
There are a couple of weak upper level lows west of Point Lay and over Russia that will provide weak offshore flow along the Chukchi Sea Coast and weak onshore flow along the northern coast of the Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound. Looking further into the forecast, the flow in the Interior turns a bit more zonal as a trough dips southwest over the North Slope. This is a change from yesterday when the ECMWF and Canadian brought a strong upper low southwest. These have trended more towards the GFS solution with troughing now expected over the northern half of the state through the early part of the week. Relatively weak ridging develops in the Southeast Interior during this time as well. Once we get into the middle of the week, there is a lot of disagreement in the models when it comes to upper level feature strength and placement. However, ensemble data remains relatively locked in on weak ridging over the Interior while weak troughing remains over the North Slope.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Areas of fog and stratus will remain from the Kotzebue Sound to the Bering Strait as onshore flow persists today. South of the Bering Strait the weather looks to be quiet and dry with pockets stratus and fog lingering in St. Lawrence Island and west facing shores, especially from Unalakleet to Chevak. Otherwise, expect much of the same through the early part of the week as the pattern won't be changing too much. By Tuesday night, there may be a slight reprieve from stratus and fog as winds increase and turn offshore. Rain chances will also increase Tuesday night, specifically in Southwest AK as a low moves over the Aleutians bringing areas of light rain and showers from Galena south.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet weather persists today over much of the Interior. A weak front will be moving from west to east this afternoon and evening which may spark a few showers over the higher terrain, especially east of Fairbanks and near the Fortymile River. A few showers may develop over the Eastern AK Range as well. Tomorrow will remain mostly dry and this carries into Tuesday as well. However, by Tuesday afternoon and evening, there will be weak westerly flow with a few small waves of energy moving along it. This may be enough to spark isolated to scattered showers over the Interior and AK Range. There is no specific area where it looks more or less likely to occur, but rain showers will be increasingly likely across the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The North Slope will keep a slight easterly breeze through Monday morning then turn northerly as the high moves west allowing for a low by the Canadian Archipelago to get in on the action. From Utqiagvik south and west, the high looks to hang on for a bit longer which will keep the area dry. East of there may be a different story. Model solutions are a bit different but all have a similar idea. It is looking like northerly flow dominates with fog which can be locally dense, stratus, as well as chances for snow on Tuesday. This can continue into Wednesday as the main system works its way onshore. Confidence in this exact solution is low and there will be changes over the coming days as models determine how this setup evolves. Either way, nothing looks to be too impactful moving forward through the week, more of a nuisance than anything else.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
High uncertainty looking into the extended forecast. There are a lot of moving parts and deterministic models are struggling. But, ensembles seem to be pretty stable showing weak ridging over the Interior and weak troughing over the North Slope. We are monitoring a boundary that may set up along or near the Brooks Range Tuesday night into Wednesday which may provide westerly flow over the Interior and southwest flow in SW AK. Very subtle waves of energy may try to move along the boundary providing isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday then drying out for the most part on Thursday. Thereafter, the pattern will depend on how strong the ridging over Canada will be. At this time, the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all have a Canadian ridge by Friday, but the placement is vastly different as we will be ironing out the details through the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and into the beginning of next week with highs mainly in the lower 50s. Minimum relative humidity values look to bottom out around 25% today around Fairbanks and 25-35% in the upper Tanana Valley. Tomorrow and Tuesday look to be drier with RHs dropping to around 20-25% across the Tanana Valley. Winds will be generally light from the east/northeast around 10 mph or less with the occasional gusts to 20 mph near prone gap areas.

HYDROLOGY
River and lake ice continues to decay across the Interior. Use extreme caution if traveling on ice.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

Kokechik Bay
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Sun -- 06:35 AM AKDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:58 PM AKDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM AKDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Romanzof, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

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