Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 10:08 PM Moonrise 3:41 AM   Moonset 9:54 AM

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PKZ802 Dall Point To Kwikpak Pass Out To 15 Nm- 520 Am Akdt Wed May 1 2024
Today - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.Tonight - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Thu - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Thu night - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fri - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fri night - NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. Sat - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun - W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 011447 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 647 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler and wetter today, warming and drying on Thu, and becoming windy and warmer on Fri.

A 1022 mb low 400 NM northeast of Demarcation Point will remain stationary into Thu and then move to 300 NM northeast of Demarcation Point by 4pm Fri. A low pressure trough that extends from that low to Atqasuk will move to Barter Island to Point Hope by 4am Fri, then move south on Fri. These features are causing stratus, flurries and some fog along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east that will continue into Fri. These features are also causing Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph over the Western Brooks Range, the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island that will continue into Fri.

An Arctic cold front that lies from Eagle to Fairbanks to the Yukon Delta will move south to Eagle to Nenana to the Yukon Delta by 4pm today, then move north to Eagle to Galena on Thu and to Old Crow to the Bering Strait on Fri. A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move east tonight. This low is feeding moisture northeast along the Arctic front. This is causing rain and snow showers along this front today that will taper off to isolated to scattered rain and snow showers tonight as the low moves east and the moisture feed ends. There may be isolated showers along the front Thu AM before ending Thu PM. Rain and snow will redevelop along the Arctic front over the West Coast and Northern Interior on Fri. Summits of the Steese and Elliot Highways above 2000 feet could have 2 inches of snow today. This front will cause temperatures well below normal over most of Northern Alaska today, with below normal temperatures remaining north of the front Thu and Fri.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain in place through Thu, then move just north of the Alaska Range on Fri.
Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to 20-30% along this trough on Thu.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range on Fri will continue into Sat. This will cause south winds to gust to 40 mph along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri into Sat, and bring warmer and drier conditions to the southern Interior Fri and Sat. This will bring the possibility of Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south Fri into Sat.

A strong low south of Kamchatka will move over the Western Aleutians Thu and to the southeast Bering Sea on Fri. This will bring a chance of rain to Southwest Alaska on Fri. This will also cause southerly Chinook flow to increase across the Alaska Range on Fri and continue into Sat.



DISCUSSION
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z except that the GFS is 10-20 meters too low on 500 mb heights south of the Arctic Circle.
Models show similar solutions aloft through Fri, with agreement in the long wave pattern through the weekend. Models show similar patterns with precip. Models verify well at the surface at 06Z.
Will use a blend of models for features aloft, and for precip through Fri. Will use a blend of the NAM and Canadian models for surface features and winds through Fri. Will use a blend of the ECMWF and GFS for the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
An Arctic cold front that lies from Eagle to Fairbanks to the Yukon Delta will move south to Eagle to Nenana to the Yukon Delta by 4pm today, then move north to Eagle to Galena on Thu and to Old Crow to the Bering Strait on Fri. There will be numerous rain and snow showers along this front today that will taper off tonight. Some of these showers could be wet between Fairbanks and Eagle.

A thermal low pressure trough over the Alaska Range will remain in place through Thu, then move just north of the Alaska Range on Fri.
Temperatures will warm to near normal with RH falling to 20-30% along this trough on Thu and Fri.

Moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range on Fri will continue into Sat. This will cause south winds to gust to 40 mph along the north side of the Alaska Range Fri into Sat, and bring the possibility of Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction south Fri into Sat.

HYDROLOGY
River Watch flew the Yukon River from Eagle to Fortymile River on Tuesday. An observer 23 miles upstream of Eagle said that the Yukon there broke up Tuesday afternoon. Ice began flowing but within a few hours had stopped flowing and an ice jam formed.
Yukon rose to near mid-summer high levels and was continuing to rise slowly.

Based on this report the Yukon at Eagle is expected to breakup sometime today. Due to the current river levels and ice conditions, the threat for flooding is diminished in the area around Eagle. However, ice jams can still pose a localized threat in the areas immediately around where they form.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-811-817-856-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.

Cape Romanzof
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:24 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:41 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM AKDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:54 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 PM AKDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:45 PM AKDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM AKDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:45 AM AKDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 PM AKDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM AKDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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