Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 10:08 PM Moonrise 3:41 AM   Moonset 9:54 AM

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PKZ802 Dall Point To Kwikpak Pass Out To 15 Nm- 400 Pm Akdt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Thu - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Thu night - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fri - NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fri night - NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. Sat - N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.Sat night - NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Sun - W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Mon - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 020039 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 439 PM AKDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS

Models are in good agreement at least through Thursday showing the upper trough over the Bearing Sea moving eastward towards the Alaska Peninsula and eventually into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday afternoon. We will see increased southerly flow through the Alaska Range that will bring Chinook winds that will lead to some elevated fire weather concerns on Friday and continuing into the weekend. This southerly flow will actually be reinforced by another strong upper-level trough that moves through the Bering Sea and into the Alaska Peninsula into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Frontal boundary moved through the Interior and now will see a slow warm up in temps, warming back up into the 60s Friday and Saturday. We will see some increasing Chinook winds along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. Because of this, wind prone areas will see wind gusts increasing to around 30 to 50 mph, especially into the weekend. With lower daytime humidity values, this will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions from Thursday and only increasing into the weekend. This will also allow for some sort of WAA for the interior that will bring above average high temperatures.

An Arctic cold front will generally continue to impact the North Slope through late week. This will lead to cooler than normal temperatures across the northern slope into the weekend. We will also see periods of light snow, fog, and low stratus through at least Friday. Winds will begin to increase as we head into the weekend, with gusts up to around 30 mph that will likely bring more periods of blowing snow.

West coast...Precip on the downtrend for Thursday before the second upper-level trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska that will bring another round of what looks to be more widespread showers to the southern West Coast on Friday and into Saturday. Northerly winds will ramp up in the Bering strait with gale-force winds Thurs into Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
By Thursday, min RH values from Fairbanks into the Delta Junction and the Eastern Alaska Range and the Upper Tanana Valley will be in the 15 to 30 percent range. Mixing this with increasing southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes fire weather concerns will increase. Looks like moderate Chinook winds will develop as early as Thursday afternoon, increasing as we move into Friday and then continuing into the weekend. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph near Delta Junction and higher gusts near Isabel Pass and lower humidity values will be very near Red Flag conditions for the aforementioned areas.

HYDROLOGY

An ice jam has formed 6 miles downstream of Manley and is causing minor flooding at the community park along the slough. As of midday Wednesday, the River Watch team reports that this jam does not appear to be strong.

However, ice is still in place and looks strong at the jam point which caused flooding in 2022. It is possible that when the jam just down stream of Manley breaks, that it will form back up near the 2022 location, but the flooding should not become much worse than it is currently. When the jam finally releases and ice flushes further down stream, river levels are expected to come back down in the Manley area.

River Watch flew the Yukon River yesterday from Eagle to FourtyMile River. An observer 23 miles upstream of Eagle said that the Yukon there broke up yesterday afternoon. Ice began flowing but within a few hours had stopped flowing and an ice jam formed.
Yukon rose to near mid-summer high levels and was continuing to rise slowly. Due to current river levels and ice conditions, the threat for flooding has diminished in the area around Eagle.
However, ice jams can still pose a localized threat in the areas immediately around where they form.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ846.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-811-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.

Cape Romanzof, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

Kokechik Bay
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Wed -- 01:49 AM AKDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 AM AKDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:45 AM AKDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 PM AKDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM AKDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

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